Allan updates his Elliott Wave analysis of the SPX and is still expecting a significant move down.
Wave 5 – Update
The Elliott Wave Principle differentiates between, "Impulsive" and "Corrective" Waves, the former is in the direction of the main trend, the latter is generally against the main trend or sideways. Below is a 30-minute line chart of the SPX, showing the closing prices of 30 minute intervals.
Note that in the chart, prices have etched out another Wave 4 sideways correction, only this time in a smaller, 30-minute time frame. As you can see, all the action from the January 16th High has been sideways, thus Corrective, in nature. We saw the same pattern earlier this month on a larger time frame, the Daily chart, a pattern that was resolved to the downside.
Most of my charts, including this one, include an indicator named, "False Bar Stochastic." I dislike using many indicators (they are one step removed from price action), but in the case of the FBS, it is too effective not to have on every chart in every time frame.
In the above chart, I’ve noted "BUY" or "SELL" every time the FBS reached overbought/oversold status and reversed. Please pay close attention to the direction of the SPX immediately after each designation. (It is only the Overbought/Oversold areas without a black horizontal line that we care about, those lines designate trends and we don’t trade against the trend.)
Accordingly, the market is set up to fall out of the drawn wedge on the chart, probably in another impulsive wave down to new lows for the move. No guarantee, just a probability that the next major move is DOWN.
