MARKET COMMENT
February 3, 2009. Dave Fry at ETF Digest
I’m back in the turret today. Actually I’ve only been away physically since making a presentation to an audience of RIAs doesn’t get your mind off the markets now does it?
This is still a pretty lethal market for position traders versus day-traders whether doing business in their pajamas or from what’s left of WS trading desks and hedge funds. Take a little TARP money and route it to the trading desks for fun and profit.
And another oddity is how some normal relationships are out of kilter like the dollar and gold for example.
Volume on the NYSE was about average while the NASDAQ was a little higher. For the most part, breadth was unremarkable except on the NASDAQ. There, the advance/decline was ordinary but up volume dwarfed down volume by a good amount. That shows a move to the biggest tech names like GOOG, RIMM, AAPL and AMZN. A return to the Four Horsemen again?
Meanwhile, our man in Geneva has his take on volume and breadth data:
Below is an internal monthly chart of DIA annotated with some DeMark sequential counts. You’ll see, with still a long ways for February to run, we have a 9 count which can mean the downtrend is reaching exhaustion. This may mean some sideways movement or a reversal of some degree is at hand.
Frankly, the market is a mess and it means staying out for the most part since stops are too hard to establish and positions difficult to maintain. Lot’s of old relationships are diverging from each other and that just adds to the confusion.
No one seems onboard with a stimulus plan and the new president is showing his lack of executive experience. Maybe he’ll catch on soon as to how things work. And, what about his team’s good vetting procedures? Daschle was always a scumbag with a smile and lobbyist wife. So he didn’t pay his taxes and that’s not okay, but it is okay to have the tax cheat in chief leading the IRS. How about Nancy Killefer who was picked to head the new Chief Performance Officer but had tax problems? Lastly(?) there’s RINO Larry Gregg who voted to kill the Commerce Department (sounds like a good idea) only to take the job as its Secretary. Good grief! Only in DC. 
Anyway, we’re back from our little trip to DC and I’m at my post. I really don’t like DC at all…could ya tell? I look at all these agencies with all their grand edifices and know they’re not accomplishing much other than putting in the time and wasting money. The Department of Agriculture has to be the biggest complex after the Pentagon. What do they do? I was told when there that they’re responsible for food safety among other things. Funny, and here we have a peanut salmonella outbreak. Good job!
Okay enough ranting.
There’s a lot more news to come this week from the economy. Tomorrow is the ADP employment survey, ISM data and Treasury auction announcements. Thursday it’s more employment data, chain store sales and factory orders. Then we conclude the week with official unemployement situation. So, if I were you, I’d keep my seat belt buckled at all times.
Let’s see what happens.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD, TLT and TBT.
