February 5, 2009, Dave Fry at ETF Digest
The news remains terrible (Chain Store Sales down, Jobless Claims high, Factory Orders worse than expected, etc) but bulls are focused on the Four Horsemen, WMT, higher commodity prices abetted by a stimulus package and the rise of the bad banks to lift indexes. Visa and MasterCard also posted strong results which just emphasizes how addicted to debt US consumers are. It’s just another day where you can’t make up either the news or reactions to it.
Tomorrow we get the jobs number which with seasonal adjustments could look awful. But even the worst number seems priced-in or so it seems.
Why is this guy smiling? Because he just walked off with an award and a fat fee for 2008 while losing investors real money. I wonder if MarketWatch ever considered not giving out awards when none were deserved.
So, stocks gained today, well, because they did. It’s the “yo-yo” market we have and that’s it. Volume spiked abetted by a reversal in those pesky bad banks and breadth expanded in a positive manner.
Our man in Geneva gives us his updated data.
I do take requests and some of the charts above reflect these. If you have a particular market you’d like to see charted email: viewermail@etfdigest.com. Nevertheless, my rule of thumb is to post those markets that in my opinion, matter. And, as you can see by many of those posted today many markets appear in the same basic condition: oversold with periodic bounces.
MarketWatch headlines today read, “…investors step back into market.” I’d change that to say “traders” but that’s just me I guess. You have to remember where you read stuff and know what their bias is. Many depend on advertising from firms that want you to feel good so the bias is bullish.
Be prepared for the Geithner led stimulus package to be revealed Monday. They may release whatever it is before markets open for maximum impact since this government, whether Democrat or Republican, are and have been the most market manipulative in history.
Since it seems to be an “in” topic, let me describe some real life regulatory experiences I’ve had that highlight incompetence and uselessness that continues today.
Regulation Experiences: Episode 1.
I left my wire house firm and established my Honololu broker/dealer in 1988. At the onset the new firm was awaiting clearance from the CFTC, NFA and State of Hawaii regulators to release our futures fund.
After the second week of opening our door for business, and still not having received regulatory clearance, three young twenty-something people showed-up from the NFA to conduct an audit. I mentioned this to our lawyer in Chicago who laughed saying, “Well, it’s winter, you’re in Hawaii, you’re the only registered person there, they never audit firms routinely in Iowa for example, so put 2 and 2 together my friend.” Being hip to that view, I cooperated naturally.
They took my files, such as I had after such a short period, and returned sunburned three days later. They made some minor criticisms such as my written mail room procedures, order entry routine (we hadn’t even put a trade in yet) and a few other minor issues having to do with our time stamp and the like then off they went.
What were they looking for? It seemed they had their checklist and merely were checking the boxes while relaxing at the beach. Oh, and they and others returned like clockwork every other year with the same routine.
Monday: State Regulators
Have a great weekend.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD, TLT and TBT.
