Balk

The balk is an illegal movement by the diver defined as:

A false start in which a diver makes an obvious attempt to start the forward or back approach but does not complete the dive;

As pointed out in yesterday’s charts, the market is straddling along support. Much as the diver above is in preparation to initiating her dive, it appears that the market today was tantalizing us with preparation, misdirection and indecision.

This is most clearly shown on a close up of an intraday chart of the SPX. Look how on the 15 minute chart prices keep moving below and then back above the upward sloping support line that forms the bottom of our wedge from last November:

From late Tuesday afternoon, through all day Wednesday, the market has appeared non-committal, yet it appears to be building momentum for it’s next move.

Here is how it looks on the 60 minute chart:

The drop we expected to come today seems to be still in the making. We can see prices bouncing off the springboard, the ledge, support, time and time again. I count four touches of support since late Tuesday.

For perspective, the 120 minute chart:

The big picture EW count remains unchanged. Here is a current Weekly chart:

There is no guarantee the market is going to dive off of that board. If certainty was attainable in the markets, someone would have let that cat out of the bag by now.