Bank Action And The Market

February 27, 2009

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Let’s check in with Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges. Reviewing the banking sector today and the SOX yesterday, he’s finding a bullish biases forming, or maybe "struggling" to materialize.

Bank Action And The Market

Courtesy of Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges

The one sector that held up very well Thursday was the Banking Index (BKX). Yesterday I showed a study that suggested a bullish bias following a negative SPX day where the SOX thrives [below]. Below is a similar test using the BKX instead of the SOX:

(click to enlarge)

This study would have triggered both on Wednesday and Thursday. Instances are too few here to draw any solid conclusions. It does appear worthwhile to keep an eye on the BKX as well as the SOX, though. Interesting about this study is that there were two occurrences in 2008. They were on 1/22/08 and 10/10/08. Both near notable market lows.

Edit: Citigroup is trying its best to ruin these results as I type this. Expect the banks to remain front and center. Looks like we’ll have another action filled day.

SOX Gives Intermediate-Term Bullish Market Indication

A positive intermediate-term sign Wednesday was the fact that the Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose even as the S&P and Nasdaq suffered 1% declines. I first showed the below study on the blog last August. I’ve updated the stats to run up until the present.

(click to enlarge)

These are solidly bullish results with the winning percentage, the profit factor, and the average trade all posting strong numbers throughout the test period.

Not shown above is that over the next week the S&P has posted a close higher than the trigger day close 89% of the time. If you look out 12 days there has been at least 1 close higher than the trigger day in 42 of 43 instances (98%). The only loser came after the 7/21/98 signal. This has been a solidly bullish intermediate-term signal.