No signs of a bottom in economic indicators…
The Economy Is Contracting A Lot More Rapidly Than The Government Is Reporting, Per TrimTabs
Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge
TrimTabs is out with their most recent employment data, which compares to the earlier ADP report, that the market forgot about after the first 30 minutes of trading. According to TrimTabs "the U.S. economy lost 700,000 to 750,000 jobs in March as wages and salaries plunged 4.5% year-over-year. TrimTabs estimated that the economy shed 4.3 million jobs in the past 12 months, the largest annual job loss since 1970."
"Job losses have been accelerating in recent months," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. "Investors who think the economy is bottoming out are going to get quite a shock this spring." TrimTabs uses daily income tax withholdings into the U.S. Treasury to estimate changes in employment. According to TrimTabs, the country lost 2.1 million jobs in the past three months and 3.4 million jobs in the past six months.
Much more interestingly, TrimTabs estimates that Joe Schmoe’s conviction that the market has bottomed is translating into returns to good ole spending behavior and savings rates are in fact lower than reported, meaning the as savings rates inevitably run up, the pain for the economy will just get so much worse.
TrimTabs reported that the personal savings rate in February was much lower than the 4.2% reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Real-time income tax data indicates that personal income is plummeting and that the savings rate was no more than 0.9% in February," said Biderman. "The only reason the savings rate was positive was that income tax refunds were up sharply relative to last year."
And to add to the gloom and doom, which Zero Hedge does not disagree with, TrimTabs concludes: "The key macroeconomic and liquidity indicators TrimTabs tracks show no sign of a bottom for the economy. The economy is still contracting a lot more rapidly than the government is reporting."
