THE WEEK THAT WAS: 3/30-4/3/2009

How did we do this past week? We had a brief consolidation as predicted and moved higher as forecast. However, we did not get as high as anticipated.

 

Comments from last weeks’ blog posted on 3/28/2009:

 

The SPX:   “I feel that 804 will hold and the SPX will move higher after a brief consolidation and challenge 875.”

 

The DOW: “My feel is that we are still going higher after a brief respite at current levels.”

 

The COMPQ: “I feel we will briefly rest at current levels and then go higher to challenge 1598 and then 1666.”

 

Monday, the Obama administration rejected business plans for GM and Chrysler as GM’s CEO Rick Wagoner resigned at the request of Washington. The DOW turned down 254 points.

 

Tuesday, the last day of the quarter, ended on an uptick as the DOW finished higher by 87 points primarily due to “Window Dressing” by fund managers.

 

Wednesday began with dismal employment data as the ADP numbers were worse by 742,000. The ISM report pushed stocks higher as Q2 began on the positive side of the ledger with the DOW gaining 153 points.

 

Thursday revealed better than expected factory goods orders and positive news from the G20 conference in London as the DOW jumped 216 points.

 

The week ended on a strong note as the market refused to close in the red even after abysmal Non-Farm Payroll numbers. RIMM bested street estimates and shot higher as the DOW finished 39 points to the good. 

 

Week over week, the DOW was up 241, the SPX gained 27 and the COMPQ was positive by 77.

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-The DOW formed a classic “J Hook” pattern and it looks like it wants to move higher.  Friday’s action formed a “Hanging Man” on lower volume.  Under normal circumstances, I would speculate that the index wants to go lower based upon that candle and coupled with the decreased volume, however I don’t think that is the case.  We have a shortened trading week with Easter just around the corner, so I am not expecting huge volume this week anyway.  There is not a lot of economic news on the horizon, but we do kick off earnings season with AA reporting on Tuesday.  I feel we are still going up with my first target at 8315 and then 8405.  If we do have a pullback, the target is 7600 and then a bounce higher.

 

 

-We will continue to rise to challenge 875.  The next stop if we successfully breach 875 is 918.  Despite the lower volume, we have a “J HOOK” pattern that moved through the recent swing high of 3/26 at 833 which is very bullish.

 

 

-The COMPQ is going up to challenge 1666.