MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, May 6, 2009
My wife and I decided to move back to Hawaii where we lived for the most part the previous 35 years. We sold our place in South America where we’ve been these past four years. We decided to have our annual physicals here before leaving. But unfortunately it was discovered that Francie has cancer. We found this out two days after we closed on the sale here. Now we’re on our way to Johns Hopkins in Baltimore (she just got there) for treatment. We may be there for months. We’ve already rented a furnished house. Our son has left here to reclaim his car in California and drive east. Our daughter lives and works in DC, so as a family, this was the best choice. She and the family are in for a challenge.
You have to wonder how the fittest (an aerobics instructor who even eschews a Tylenol) would have this happen. But it has. One thing about Francie is she’s an optimist and thinking going to Baltimore as an adventure: “Gee, I’ve never been there before!”
I fly out tomorrow and posting will become somewhat spotty given the chaotic circumstances. I tell you all this so you’ll understand should postings become erratic. I know you’ll understand and I will say little more about this.
So, let’s move on.
Why don’t we just say the fix is in? If you convert the taxpayers’ holdings in BAC from preferred shares to common the result is the bank looks better but taxpayers’ get screwed. Ken Lewis is sure something! “We don’t need capital” he says. “We’re well capitalized” he says. Next thing you know, they need to raise $35 billion!
This lack of credibility is only one reason average investors don’t trust the government, banks and Wall Street. Trading desks and hedge funds don’t give a rip about such concerns. Oh wait—unless you’re a hedge fund holding Chrysler senior debt and government bullies are forcing you to eat losses while unions……oh nevermind!
Volume did pickup from yesterday but it’s still below average when looking at major index ETFs and given all this bullishness. Breadth was positive but I do not trust this data.
So many markets, so little time is all I can say. I’m sure there are some favorites missed but you just need to remind me.
The news? Fahgett about it! BAC needs $35 billion, Chrysler bond holders get stiffed, GM isn’t a functioning enterprise, DIS reports a 46% decline in profits and the stock rallies because, you guessed it, this beat estimates.
Every time I think the market rally has run its course there’s another Emeril Lagasse “let’s kick it up another notch” moment. So, we go with it because that’s what the system tells us to do. Every time I try to fade my system it costs me whether not being aggressive enough or just not making indicated trades. But we’re all human and after 35 years of doing this you’ll forgive me for saying that I’ve developed some attitude. Yeah, a technician with an attitude—sounds dangerous.
Now dear readers please understand that we’re not looking for any sympathy and Francie will probably be upset I posted her situation for all the world to see. Nevertheless, I wanted you to know that postings may become intermittent. This is all I’ll say on this subject.
I don’t know if there will be post tomorrow as I’ll be moving about.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
