MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 22, 2009
The story is front and center: GS is reported (later denied) able to pay huge bonuses to employees this year. (Guardian story is here.) How can this happen especially now? TARP money to trade with thanks to US taxpayers. Warren Buffett and Senator Dick Durbin knew exactly what was going to take place when they invested with the in-crowd. They, and other insiders, got the vig and you got the tab. End of story. It’s as simple as that isn’t it?
Today was a rough day to put it mildly as markets tumbled hard on reports from the World Bank that growth (also known as “green shoots”) will be er, “worse than expected”. This news crushed previously healthy commodity and stock market rallies.
Volume picked up and breadth was awful.
Perhaps “the tell” was the rollover in the Summation Index as demonstrated in the chart below. It can rise to 1200-1400 and stay there for longer than you can imagine before it rolls over. Then a top is often the result. “Sell in May and go away?”
The rollover in the McClellan Summation Index probably indicates a temporary top is in. Does that mean we drop like a stone? Probably not despite the negative 200 point DJIA day. Will we get just a tiresome trading range? Possibly. But, we have the end of month and quarter in front of us with earnings beginning next month. Perhaps bulls will see more green shoots or not. It just doesn’t seem many folks are involved in markets beyond Da Boyz.
Speaking of them, it’s pretty amazing to see a report of massive bonuses forthcoming despite the corporate denial. What tin ears these guys have! The other thing that’s disturbing is the level of insider information that passes from officials to their pals. Buffett is an insider period and has sat in on many meeting with Fed and Treasury officials. It’s unseemly for him and others to parlay that to gains unavailable to others. It’s said amusingly that Geithner has Pimco’s Bill Gross on speed dial. Further, should politicians like Durbin and others with inside information from the Fed and Treasury invest with those capable of gaining on their behalf?
The great news for those following this is that my wife and I visited her oncologist today and she gave her the news she wanted to hear—no chemo or hormone treatment. Whew!
The bad news is my new Lenovo crashed producing the “blue screen of death”. It’s being returned can you believe it? (Please, all you Dell and Mac fans back off!)
The sad news is I travel to Iowa tomorrow to see a lifetime friend whose cancer has progressed seriously. I will fly from Baltimore tomorrow morning and then drive with another common friend from Chicago and return here the next day. Perhaps a post will be missed.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, DBC, DBA, DBB, USL, XLE, EFA, EEM, EWA and FXI.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
