Head and Shoulders and Divergences on Daily SP500
Courtesy of Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade
It’s being broadly circulated around the analysis circles, but there appears to be a distinct Head and Shoulders forming on the daily chart of the S&P 500. I’m picking up volume and momentum divergences as well, hinting that lower prices are yet to come but let’s take a look at these structures and what they might mean for traders.
With today’s 3% free-fall (Trend Day Down) in the broader stock market, it appears now that the dominant technical pattern is the developing Head and Shoulders on the S&P 500.
It’s not guaranteed, of course, but according to classical technical analysis patterns, we would expect the next move in price to be a ‘magnet trade’ down to test key support about the 885 level in the index.
This support is strongly established as the February highs along with the May lows. This level also forms the “Neckline” of the expected reversal pattern.
A break (and clean close) below 880 could trigger a flood of short-sell orders (and stop-losses from buyers) which could create a ’self-fulfilling prophecy’ as traders and investors push price lower.
The classic measuring move is the distance from the Head to the Neckline (about 75 points) which is subtracted from the neckline at 885 to give us a target from 800 to 810 for the next level of possible pattern support.
Take a look at Volume, which has been steadily trailing lower as price has creeped its way higher. That serves as a non-confirmation of higher prices and hints at an impending reversal.
Finally, look at the 3/10 Momentum Oscillator – as price has been inching higher, the 3/10 Oscillator has been making lower highs along with price, and has even set-up the dreaded “Three Push” reversal pattern (a triple negative momentum divergence, which you see if you look closely).
As a caveat, there’s no guarantee price has to break these levels, and one astute reader (Michael) even noted in the comments of the prior post, because the Head and Shoulders pattern is so obvious, it might be ‘faded’ or fail to materialize because so many people are watching it. No one said trading had to be easy!
Until we see something different, this is the current price structure of the S&P 500 as we head into the holiday weekend.
