Christopher Fountain agrees with Joe’s (Clusterstock) Case-Shiller Flashing The "Ultimate False Bottom" In Housing.
Christopher is another non-practicing lawyer "and glad of it." He’s been selling real estate in Greenwich, Ct for many years.
House Prices and Case-Shiller: a false bottom?
Courtesy of Christopher Fountain, For What It’s Worth
I think so and have said so repeatedly but here’s a genius who thinks so too (the mark of genius in a person being the extent to which he agrees with you). The pessimist’s argument is that the only high end houses currently selling are those bought pre-bubble for, say, $1,000,000. Their owners watched the value soar to $2.5 and then drop to $1.5 but they still have equity they can cash out and use to buy a cheap house in a retirement spot. The C/S index would be really whomped, the argument goes, if it accurately reflected the loss of value of all those houses that aren’t selling.
Of course, Case-Shiller reflects actual sales, not present value of houses still unsold and since they aren’t selling, the index is accurate, as far as it goes. But if the homes with no remaining equity ever do begin to move, either through foreclosure or abandonment (not a problem in Greenwich, yet, but I’m hearing reports of it happening in Stamford, in good neighborhoods), watch out.
Photo: Courtesy of Lockhard at Curbed.
