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Saturday, November 23, 2024

The Oxen Report – Trade Deficit Declines, Can It Lead Market Up?

I will be doing my recap a little bit later. Only positions we closed yesterday were UYG for 2% and HELE for 3% loss.

Let’s see what’s on our plates today.

 

Buy Pick of the Day: Ultrashort Proshares Oil and Gas

Well, I guess I don’t think it will. The oil market has seen a pretty steady rise over the past few days to the $71 range, and it has taken DUG down as it went up. Today, however, the dollar is strengthening, which is pushing the value of oil down. At the same time, the IEA is saying that oil demand is going to rise to higher levels than previously expected oil demand to rise 1.7% in 2010. The price of oil will definitely rise out of the gate on this news and the trade deficit news will definitely help the ETF out to rise. 

Futures were down going into the trade balance news, the Dow was down 28 points, and the Nasdaq was down 8 points. After the trade balance data, the futures decreased even further. So, I am not sure investors really are getting behind the news in pre-market, but the rush of investors at 9:30 AM will probably bring things up. Therefore, we are going to wait to buy until that rush comes. Futures of DUG have come down slightly, but that allows us to buy DUG at a discount, which we LIKE!

Technically, DUG is in a perfect buying position. The stock has just hit its lower bollinger band, which is a red alarm for a buying opportunity. Even if in the longterm the stock decays, that means a short term pop is in order. The stock on fast stochastics is showing that the stock is way oversold, and that momentum cannot be upheld. The ETF’s Relative Strength Index is showing that the stock is very undervalued, relative to its 3 month moving average. Therefore, the technicals seem to present a strong case for buying this stock. 

Watch out for the slight rally on the IEA and trade deficit reports, but we should be able to buy in and watch this one rally as oil loses value on the day.

Entry: We are looking for entry at 13.35 – 13.45.

Exit: 2-3% on top of entry price.

Stop Loss: 3% below entry price.

 

Short Sale of the Day: Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. (NUS)

My story for NUS got deleted due to computer issues…lovely. This is a great short sale. The stock is way overvalued, and all the technicals point to a pullback as of yesterday. Then, this morning the stock gets an upgrade and is up another 6% in pre-market trading. The stock is going to receive a lot of profit taking, and you should be a part of it. Sorry the explanation is so short.

Entry: Get into a short sale right out of the gate.

Exit: Looking for 2-4% increase to cover.

Stop Buy: 3% on top of entry price.

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