A sustainable recovery with 530,000 weekly claims?

unemployment, jobless claims Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

That’s what we seem to be expecting based on the huge uptick in equities since March. While stock markets have long since moved it up a gear, the employment market is stuck in neutral. The latest seasonally-adjusted jobless claims numbers came in at 530,000. The widely-followed four week average is still 526,250 and is not coming down.

These numbers are more consistent with a loss of 200,000 jobs per month than of one of declining unemployment. When you have more people losing jobs than getting them, you don’t have the pre-conditions for a sustainable recovery. The economy needs to move it up a notch or we are looking at a double dip.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

WEEK ENDING	Oct. 24	Oct. 17	Change	Oct. 10	Year
	Advance				Prior1

Initial Claims (SA)	530,000	531,000	-1,000	520,000	485,000
Initial Claims (NSA)	492,456	460,430	+32,026	509,730	449,389
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	526,250	532,250	-6,000	533,000	477,750


WEEK ENDING	Oct. 17	Oct. 10	Change	Oct. 3	Year
	Advance				Prior1

Ins. Unemployment (SA)	5,797,000	5,945,000	-148,000	6,034,000	3,773,000
Ins. Unemployment (NSA)	4,968,019	4,916,574	+51,445	4,953,947	3,233,118
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	5,960,750	6,039,500	-78,750	6,093,250	3,746,500