Jobless claims rise 7,000 to 480,000

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Small Dip Seen In Unemployment Numbers, First Drop Since January

Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 12th came in at a seasonally-adjusted (SA) 480,000, which is a rise of 7,000 from the previous week. This brings the 4-week SA average down to 467,500, the lowest in 15-months. Clearly layoffs have receded. However, hiring has yet to begin in earnest, so the employment situation remains weak.

Because of heavy seasonal adjustments at this time of year, I think we will have to wait until after the holiday season for a more meaningful change in the data. For now, the scenario is in a holding pattern: slow but steady decline in new claims mixed with weak hiring environment and a high level of unemployment and underemployment means a weak recovery.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

WEEK ENDING	Dec. 12	Dec. 5	Change	Nov. 28	Year
	Advance				Prior1

Initial Claims (SA)	480,000	473,000	+7,000	454,000	552,000
Initial Claims (NSA)	555,344	662,737	-107,393	457,707	629,867
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	467,500	472,750	-5,250	480,750	535,250


WEEK ENDING	Dec. 5	Nov. 28	Change	Nov. 21	Year
	Advance				Prior1

Ins. Unemployment (SA)	5,186,000	5,181,000	+5,000	5,470,000	4,356,000
Ins. Unemployment (NSA)	5,176,122	5,399,111	-222,989	4,791,751	4,378,273
4-Wk Moving Average (SA)	5,318,250	5,425,000	-106,750	5,542,500	4,208,250