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TWO THINGS I THINK I THINK

By Ilene
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I think I agree with Pragcap’s thinks. – Ilene

TWO THINGS I THINK I THINK

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

  • The beat goes on this morning on the news front.  If you just looked at the actual news headlines you’d likely expect that the market would be down substantially.  Retail sales were much worse than expected, jobless claims come in higher than expected, etc.  But….The ECB kept rates low which likely means the Fed will remain accommodative.  Easy money means easy stocks market.  The beat goes on.  We truly have become slaves to the stimulus.
  • A few things have me a bit nervous about being long this market: 1) The complacency in the rapidly declining VIX means we’re ripe for a sharp 5% pull-back.  2) There is no volume.  We should have more volume this early in the year.  3)  Breadth is expanding rapidly to levels where it generally deteriorates.  4) At some point, the earnings season will turn into a “sell the news” event. 

 

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