H/tip to Tom Burger, who neatly summed it up: government transfer payments are significantly distorting broad measures of economic activity. – Ilene
Recession Measures
Calling the beginning or end of a recession takes time. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) waits until the data is revised, and if the recovery is sluggish, this process can take from 18 months to two years or longer.
In addition, if the economy slides into recession again, the committee will only consider it a new recession if most major indicators were close to or above their previous highs. Otherwise it will just be considered a continuation of the previous recession.
A good example of the NBER calling two separate recessions was in the early ’80s, from the NBER memo:
"The period following July 1980 will appear in the NBER chronology as an expansion. An important factor influencing that decision is that most major indicators, including real GNP, are already close to or above their previous highs."
emphasis added
It will take some time for most major indicators to be above their previous high after the "great recession" because of the severe contraction as the graphs below show.
Continue to full article and charts here.>>
