Since it is the end of May, I thought I would update everyone on how our three virtual portfolios are doing. Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Virtual Portfolio for 2010 is up 18.5% so far this year with 48 trades. We have gotten 36 of these 48 actionable trades correct, giving the virtual portfolio a 75% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio is up 8% thus far this year on 24 trades, and it has a 75% success rate as well with 16 correct trades. Finally, we have a new virtual portfolio that just started in May for Long Term Investments. The virtual portfolio is not one that needs to be updated on a daily basis, but we will continue to watch for developments that would change my thoughts on our fair value estimates for them. Our 2009 virtual portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.
The way that my virtual portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account virtual portfolio for 2010 is available. The virtual portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action.
The Buy/Overnight/Week Virtual Portfolio
| Date | Stock | Buy Price | Sell Price | Change | Amt Gain/Lost | Acct. A | Acct. B | Acct. C | Acct. D | Total $ |
| 01/01/10 | xxxx | x | x | x | 2500 | 2500 | 2500 | 2500 | 10000 | |
| 01/05/10 | SRS | 7.64 | 7.51 | -2.00% | -50.51 | 2449.49 | 9949.49 | |||
| 01/11/10 – 1/12/10 | INFY | 54.83 | 58.85 | 7.33% | 172.9 | 2672.9 | 10122.39 | |||
| 01/12/10 | SRS | 7.5 | 7.72 | 3.00% | 65.26 | 2565.26 | 10187.65 | |||
| 01/13/10 | ERY | 10.35 | 10.04 | -3.00% | -82.71 | 2417.29 | 10104.94 | |||
| 1/14/10 – 1/15/10 | C | 3.5 | 3.56 | 2.00% | 33.94 | 2483.43 | 10138.88 | |||
| 01/15/10 | UYG | 6.15 | 5.99 | -2.50% | -77.44 | 2595.46 | 10061.44 | |||
| 01/20/10 | SKF | 22.2 | 22.64 | 2.00% | 42.6 | 2607.86 | 10104.04 | |||
| 01/21/10 | FAS | 82.85 | 81.2 | -2.00% | -55.85 | 2361.44 | 10048.19 | |||
| 01/25/10 | DRV | 14 | 14.56 | 4.00% | 91.12 | 2574.55 | 10139.31 | |||
| 01/29/2010 – 02/02/2010 | MHO | 10.35 | 10.97 | 6.00% | 147 | 2742.46 | 10286.31 | |||
| 02/01/10 | DIG | 32.5 | 33.3 | 2.50% | 56 | 2663.86 | 10342.31 | |||
| 02/09/10 | ACLI | 19.56 | 20.04 | 3.00% | 49.6 | 2411.04 | 10391.91 | |||
| 02/09/2010 – 02/11/2010 | HNSN | 2.57 | 2.74 | 6.60% | 162.17 | 2736.72 | 10554.08 | |||
| 02/10/10 | MAC | 30.6 | 29.75 | -2.50% | -83.65 | 2658.81 | 10470.43 | |||
| 2/22/10 – 2/23/10 | SAH | 9.5 | 10.2 | 7.00% | 196 | 2859.86 | 10666.43 | |||
| 02/23/10 | ERY | 11.35 | 11.69 | 3.00% | 64.08 | 2475.12 | 10730.51 | |||
| 02/25/2010 – 2/26/10 | LHO | 19.9 | 19.65 | -1.25% | -42.25 | 2694.47 | 10688.26 | |||
| 02/26/10 | DUG | 13.05 | 13.05 | 0.00% | -8 | 2650.81 | 10680.26 | |||
| 03/01/10 | DRN | 138.6 | 142.49 | 3.00% | 69.8 | 2929.66 | 10750.06 | |||
| 3/4/10 – 3/5/10 | SOLF | 7.24 | 7.15 | -1.50% | -38.69 | 2436.43 | 10711.37 | |||
| 03/05/10 | UYG | 5.99 | 6.11 | 2.00% | 45.88 | 2740.35 | 10757.25 | |||
| 03/08/10 – 03/09/10 | SRS | 6.78 | 6.58 | -3.00% | -86 | 2564.81 | 10671.25 | |||
| 03/09/10 | ERY | 10.47 | 10.22 | -2.40% | -77.75 | 2851.91 | 10593.5 | |||
| 03/11/10 – 03/12/10 | GMXR | 10.25 | 10.46 | 2.00% | 48.07 | 2484.5 | 10641.57 | |||
| 03/16/10 | RUE | 33.3 | 34.3 | 3.00% | 74 | 2814.35 | 10715.57 | |||
| 03/17/10 – 03/18/10 | NWY | 4.34 | 4.46 | 3.00% | 62.8 | 2627.61 | 10773.37 | |||
| 03/22/2010 – 03/23/2010 | CAAS | 19.9 | 20.9 | 5.00% | 123 | 2974.91 | 10896.37 | |||
| 03/23/10 | SRS | 5.95 | 6.07 | 2.00% | 42.04 | 2526.54 | 10938.41 | |||
| 03/29/2010 – 04/01/10 | MOS | 60.2 | 60.2 | 0.00% | -8 | 2806.35 | 10930.41 | |||
| 03/31/10 | DUG | 12.24 | 12.25 | 0.00% | -8 | 2619.61 | 10922.41 | |||
| 04/01/10 | PAG | 14.65 | 15.09 | 3.00% | 81.32 | 3056.23 | 11003.73 | |||
| 04/12/10 – 4/14/10 | AMD | 9.42 | 9.99 | 5.00% | 144.76 | 2671.3 | 11148.49 | |||
| 04/13/10 | DRV | 7.85 | 7.62 | -3.00% | -90.11 | 2716.24 | 11058.38 | |||
| 04/19/10 – 04/22/10 | ALGN | 18.5 | 19.35 | 5.00% | 111.85 | 2731.46 | 11170.23 | |||
| 04/22/10 | SBCF | 2.15 | 2.19 | 2.00% | 48.84 | 3105.07 | 11219.07 | |||
| 04/27/10 – 04/28/10 | CENX | 14.1 | 14.35 | 1.75% | 39.25 | 2710.55 | 11258.32 | |||
| 04/29/10 – 04/30/10 | CQB | 15.75 | 15 | -4.75% | -137 | 2579.24 | 11121.32 | |||
| 05/10/10 | JCP | 29.15 | 29.25 | 0.34% | 1.3 | 2732.76 | 11122.62 | |||
| 05/11/10 – 05/12/10 | ERTS | 18.5 | 18.09 | -2.27% | -76.47 | 3028.6 | 11046.15 | |||
| 05/13/10 | ERY | 9.8 | 10 | 2.00% | 47.2 | 2757.75 | 11093.35 | |||
| 05/18/10 | CHS | 14.65 | 14.21 | -3.00% | -85.44 | 2493.8 | 11007.91 | |||
| 05/18/2010 – 05/21/10 | ARO | 28 | 29.26 | 4.50% | 122.22 | 2854.98 | 11130.13 | |||
| 05/24/10 | PHM | 10.7 | 11.04 | 3.00% | 88.22 | 3116.82 | 11218.35 | |||
| 05/24/10 | BIG | 36.5 | 37.24 | 2.00% | 47.5 | 2805.25 | 11265.85 | |||
| 05/25/10 | DSW | 27 | 27.71 | 3.00% | 57.32 | 2551.12 | 11323.17 | |||
| 05/25/10 – 05/26/10 | XIDE | 3.85 | 4.12 | 9.00% | 192.07 | 3047.05 | 11515.24 | |||
| 05/26/10 – 05/27/10 | PAY | 17.25 | 18.65 | 8.50% | 244 | 3360.82 | 11759.24 | |||
| 05/27/10 | QDEL | 11.33 | 11.74 | 4.00% | 93.27 | 11852.51 |
The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio up 8% is done in the same way as the Buy Virtual Portfolio. The only difference is that this virtual portfolio has only three mini-accounts, and it only started with $7500.
The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio
| Date | Stock | Buy Price | Sell Price | Change | Amt Gain/Lost | Acct. A | Acct. B | Acct. C | Total $ |
| 01/01/10 | xxxx | x | x | x | 2500 | 2500 | 2500 | $7,500.00 | |
| 01/12/10 | GAP | 10.75 | 10.43 | 3.00% | 66.24 | 2566.24 | 7566.24 | ||
| 01/13/10 | SYMC | 18.8 | 18.61 | 1.00% | 17.08 | 2517.08 | 7583.32 | ||
| 01/15/10 | SHFL | 9.8 | 9.51 | 3.00% | 65.95 | 2565.95 | 7649.27 | ||
| 01/20/10 | COV | 52.25 | 51.21 | 2.00% | 42.96 | 2609.2 | 7692.23 | ||
| 01/26/10 | MTG | 6.73 | 6.53 | 3.00% | 66.8 | 2583.88 | 7759.03 | ||
| 02/01/10 | SRS | 8.12 | 8 | 1.50% | 29.92 | 2595.87 | 7788.85 | ||
| 02/03/10 | DUG | 12.5 | 12.8 | -2.00% | -70.4 | 2539.2 | 7718.45 | ||
| 02/16/10 | AESI | 15.9 | 15.42 | 3.00% | 69.76 | 2653.64 | 7788.21 | ||
| 02/23/10 | RDN | 10.15 | 9.85 | 3.00% | 68.5 | 2664.37 | 7856.71 | ||
| 02/26/10 | AXA | 19.75 | 19.16 | -3.00% | -83.52 | 2455.68 | 7773.19 | ||
| 03/01/10 | DDS | 17.9 | 17.36 | -3.00% | -87.92 | 2565.72 | 7685.27 | ||
| 03/08/10 | STP | 15.2 | 14.76 | 3.00% | 69 | 2733.37 | 7754.27 | ||
| 03/09/10 | TXT | 21.31 | 21.6 | -1.00% | 41.35 | 2414.33 | 7712.92 | ||
| 03/10/10 | HRBN | 25.6 | 24.9 | 2.80% | 62 | 2627.72 | 7774.92 | ||
| 03/12/10 | HIBB | 25.75 | 24.98 | 3.00% | 73.62 | 2806.99 | 7848.54 | ||
| 03/18/10 | SMRT | 10.35 | 10.15 | 2.00% | 38.6 | 2452.93 | 7887.04 | ||
| 03/23/10 | SKS | 9.55 | 9.28 | 3.00% | 66.25 | 2693.97 | 7953.29 | ||
| 04/08/10 | PIR | 7.6 | 7.82 | -3.00% | 89.18 | 2717.81 | 7864.11 | ||
| 04/13/10 | TLB | 15.55 | 15.09 | 3.00% | 64.22 | 2517.15 | 7928.33 | ||
| 05/14/10 | TTWO | 11 | 10.67 | 3.00% | 72.52 | 2766.49 | 8000.85 | ||
| 05/17/10 | EUO | 24.65 | 25.26 | 2.50% | 59.1 | 2776.91 | 8059.95 | ||
| 05/20/10 | MF | 8.3 | 8.13 | 2.00% | 43.51 | 2560.66 | 8103.46 | ||
| 05/24/10 | SKF | 20.15 | 20.75 | -3.00% | -90.2 | 2676.29 | 8013.26 | ||
| 05/25/10 | CECO | 29 | 28.28 | 2.50% | 60.4 | 2837.31 | 8073.57 |
The Long Term Virtual Portfolio
| Date of Entry | Stock | Entry Price | Current Price | % Change | Fair Value Estimate |
| 05/27/10 | TSL | 17.65 | 16.88 | -4.36% | $30.00 |
Good Investing,
David Ristau
