Why did Obama interrupt our TV shows yesterday?
All Obama did was tell us there was a spill and it needs to be cleaned up. Apparently we should probably have a long-term energy plan too but he doesn't seem to have one but I think he said he knows a guy who knows a guy who has an idea that might help our children's children at some point or another. The saddest thing about Obama's speech to me is he points out how America has done great things in the past:
I will not accept is inaction. The one answer I will not settle for is the idea that this challenge is too big and too difficult to meet. You see, the same thing was said about our ability to produce enough planes and tanks in World War II. The same thing was said about our ability to harness the science and technology to land a man safely on the surface of the moon. And yet, time and again, we have refused to settle for the paltry limits of conventional wisdom.
I guess that's like the conventional wisdom that says you can't run $1Tn a year deficit for 10 years and lower taxes and fight a $1Tn war and not expect it all to come back and bite you in the ass. Or maybe he was talking about the conventional wisdom that says that 5% of the people in the world should learn not to consume 20% of it's fuel or maybe the conventional wisdom that spending 100 times more on military research than we do on energy research when we're fighting wars for energy is just about the stupidest decision made by any society in human history…
Conventional wisdom aside, what I find disturbing in this statement is that America has only done two great things in the last 100 years: We finally woke up and helped our allies win a war (but only after we were attacked) and we finally woke up (again out of fear of Russia) and decided to use our great national resources to make a lasting scientific accomplishment (and it's ironic that Obama has cut further moon funding). I guess we can say that Al Gore inventing the Internet was a big deal too, so that's 3 things in 100 years so I guess we're about due for another.
But what is the plan? There is no plan! That right there is total BS. First of all, let's recognize the fact that the US spends $1Tn on energy every year. One third of that is money we send overseas to import oil. That means, we can easily justify a $3Tn expenditure just to find a way to generate the $300Bn a year at home and keep those trade dollars in the country (a business plan with a 10% annual ROI). Factor in job creation and keeping a lid on overall energy prices and we have a real winner here – why can't Obama say that?
Here's MY plan:
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Restart cash for clunkers. $5,000 for 40M cars that get 20 mpg or less to be traded in for AMERICAN MADE cars that get 35 mpg or more.
- Costs $200Bn, stimulates the economy, creates jobs, saves 320 gals per year per car or 300Mb of oil (cutting 10% of our imports)
- Offer consumers $200 per mpg over 30 on new car purchases. Penalize them $200 per mpg under 30.
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Arrange interest free 10-year payment on purchase of energy-saving lights for homes and businesses.
- Switching to energy-efficient lighting will knock another 5% off total US energy consumption.
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Mandate all new homes be build with solar heating and electricity. Offer real incentives to convert existing homes.
- At $50K per home, $200Bn a year will take 4M homes a year off the grid (5%) and put hundreds of thousands of construction workers back to work.
- In 10 years, 50% of our homes will be off grid and we won't need to spend $3Tn to fix the existing grid, which is badly strained and wasting 50% of the energy we put into it.
As you can see, I haven't come close to spending $3Tn because we need that "moon shot" approach to this and it will take time to develop major solutions like better public transportation, alternative energy, grid improvements, etc.
What I would also like to do is set aside $50Bn a year to fund research and promote science in the schools and I'd also like to set aside $5Bn with which we'd set up a science version of "America's Got Talent" where each state would have monthly $1M prizes for the best energy saving idea or invention ($600M) and the monthly winners would compete in 4 regional events for $50M quarterly prizes ($800M) that would be televised nationally to stimulate interest and keep people focused on science and energy conservation. Those winners would then be eligible for the grand prize of $1Bn with another $1Bn to the top 5 and matching funding available (as a government investment) to develop the winning ideas and inventions. How's that for motivation?
Where on earth would we get $500Bn a year to spend? Well, we use 350Bn gallons of oil a year so a very simple $1.25 per gallon tax would take care of that and also have the added benefit of encouraging people to economize. We were paying $1.25 per gallon more for oil (involuntarily) just a year ago and if the average person utilizes our programs to switch from a 20 mpg car to a 35 mpg car – they will save more money on fuel than they spend on the tax!
So, there's that problem solved – now on to the markets!
Nomura Holdings says the China property bubble "is going to burst very quickly, with prices set to fall as much as 20% in the next 12 to 18 months." At the same time Pimpco continues to attack the rally, this time issuing a report saying "Commercial Property to Stay 40% From Peak" for 3-5 more years. High unemployment, potential re-regulation and an increased savings rate are among the factors that will "lengthen the deleveraging process and suppress a recovery."
Both the Shanghia and the Hang Seng flatlined today despite the Nikkei jumping 1.8% back over the 10,000 mark (which we expected). It was the normal nonsense with the Yen that drove Japan's exporters higher but the Yen has already rebounded from 91.75 at 3am to 91.20 at 9am in what is still the most reliable currency trade I've ever seen. Foreign investors in general are bailing on the Asian markets and this marks the first time in more than a year that the markets registered net selling for a month (May).
Europe has flatlined after a strong open, dropping about half a point straight down into lunch as the Euro and Pound dropped on news that Spanish banks had to borrow record amounts from the ECB ($105Bn) in May to keep afloat. This was DOUBLE what they borrowed when Lehman went under in Sept 2008 to maintain liquidity. $1Tn doesn't go that far when the banks need $100Bn a month! Spain's borrowing costs jumped 245 basis points, approaching the all-time high again with 1-year notes at 2.45% vs 0.9% in April.
This is why we are both bullish AND skeptical! We talked about how the Spanish crisis was MAJOR way back on April 29th and, if we hadn't already cashed out that week – that alone would have been a good reason to do so. But, once again, IT'S NOT NEWS! Just like Moody's downgrade of Greece was not news on Monday (and we correctly played it bullish), worrying about Spain's May numbers now is equally pointless.
Right now, it's all about our levels. We broke our levels and now we need to hold our levels or it will be time to give up on our rally dreams and get a bit more bearish. I told Members yesterday afternoon that I though we would pull back about half a point before we got a run over 666 on the Russell but we got a big stick save into the close that took us to 668 BUT the NYSE did not make 7,000 so we're still not satisfied. Everyone else is looking good and we'll see what happens today but it's the same levels we were looking to take back in Monday's morning post, which are the same levels we were expecting to fall to on April 29th!
