The market is lacking any economic data points or any company earnings. There are very few economic indicators out there, and it looks like it will most likely be a pretty flat day in the markets with options expirations coming out this morning. We have two open positions currently, and we are looking to open one more short sale today, as well as adding our weekly Long Term Investment. Our first open position is BHP Hilliton (BHP). We bought BHP as a short sale on Wednesday at 67.25. The company closed yesterday at 67.03, and it appears to want to open higher. On this one, I am just going to want to try and break even or take a small gain, but we will be closing this position today. A new position we opened yesterday was a Midterm Trade in Jabil Circuit Inc. (JBL), who is set to report earnings on Tuesday evening. We got involved with JBL at 13.56, and we are looking to exit in the range of 14.10 – 14.37. We are up just over 2% thus far, but the down market today might neutralize our gains.
We have on Short Sale this morning, and then, I will be working on and posting a Long Term Investment this afternoon. Good luck out there!
Short Sale of the Day: Tesoro Corp. (TSO)
Analysis: With the market looking pretty flat and hold on our bull market rally, it seems that a buy for today might be a waste. I am not even feeling too great about a short sale, as well. With this one at least we have a large group of overvalued stocks that could use to have some profit taking occur on an expirations day. When you combine that with a nice pop in pre-market trading, it makes for a more comforting selection. That conclusion is what led me to Tesoro Corp. (TSO), which is an oil refiner that sells fuel throughout most of the West.
Today, Tesoro received an upgrade from Royal Bank of Canada Capital from "market underperform" to "sector perform." What this means is that RBC believes the company is holding the ability now to move with its sector rather than underperform it. The company, additionally, raised its guidance from $11 per share to $13. Reasoning for the upgrade were not released, but it has helped TSO pop 1.5% in pre-market, which is quite a bit for a company looking rather toppy and has increased just under 10% in the past two weeks.
Yet, the market is not looking very solid to maintain much in the way of gains today. Futures on the Dow are pointing
downwards slightly. What also is not helping Tesoro is the fall in the price of oil today. Oil has dropped over a dollar this morning to under $76. This drop comes after inventories showed a new rise after several weeks of drops.
As Carsten Fristch, at Commerzbank AG, comments, "The high and rising inventory levels reflect that the market is still in oversupply."
That oversupply is seen in the increase in inventories, and a rise in supply is a decrease in price. The lower oil along with the market should help TSO to give up the gains it will have this morning over the length of the day. TSO has had a great run up with the market, but it is time for some profit taking to occur.
Technically, the short sale makes sense, as well. The stock has risen rapidly over the past couple weeks, which has put TSO right near the top of its bollinger bands. It sits above its 50-day moving average, and it has become heavily overbought and overvalued on stochastics and RSI, respectively. The stock looks ready to make some movement downwards for some healthy selling to allow new buyers to enter the stock.
We are looking for the pop out of pre-market to occur and for TSO to get some rise before it hits a wall.
Entry: We are looking to short in the range of 12.10 – 12.25.
Exit: We are looking to cover for a 2-3% gain.
Stop Loss: 3% on top.
Good Investing,
David Ristau
