I thought the Fed minutes were just fine.
I said to Members yesterday, right off the bat at 2:06: "Fed minutes – Raised their unemployment outlook and lowered economic outlook – that’s not good. On the other hand it’s good for those who are looking for QE2. Nervous Nellies getting out but maybe some buyers will come in after that (see David Fry’s chart of the action). Not really big rally fuel but certainly nothing to take us down."
As I moved on with my normal highlighting of the statement and commentary I threw in aggressive bullish plays on TNA and DIA, pointing out to Members: "These minutes are from 3 weeks ago when everyone was doom and glooming. It affects the Fed too and colors their outlook and has little to do with today’s reality. Think of how many of the issues they worried about are no longer true.. They were worried about Greece, etc and lowered their outlook only very slightly and we have already moved past the EU crisis and we didn’t blow up and domestic demand is not dampened so their concerns of 3 weeks ago are out the window and the initial reaction to the headline spin on this report is INCORRECT!!!"
Another "incorrect" reaction came early this morning as we got the news that China’s GDP "only" grew at 10.3%. What the hell is wrong with people? 10.3% is a lot! China WANTS to slow down their economy. In fact, they have taken pretty drastic steps to put the brakes on and it would have been more worrying if they HADN’T managed to slow things down a little. IHS Global insight points out: "This looks more like a smooth-ish exit from the stimulus cycle, rather than a forebear of nasty things to come. Inflationary pressure has really eased off — for now — with a pullback in CPI and PPI coming in conjunction with the sharp halt in property price rises."
Barry had this nice chart of the Global Recovery Status this morning and, unlike what you may think if you get all your news from the MSM, the global economy is hardly falling off a cliff. In fact, the only countries actually still considered in a recession by Moody’s Analytics are Greece, Iceland, Serbia, UAE and Venezuela. What??? That’s right Mr. Bear – not only are only 5 countries on the planet Earth in recession but there are only 13 other nations, notablly Ireland, Spain, Saudi Arabia and Iran, who not already to be considered in recovery with a whopping 26 nations engaged in full-blown EXPANSION.
"Quck Maude, switch back to Fox – that boy is trying to use them "fact" thingies to confuse us again…."
Bloomberg’s National Poll found no confusion among the people they polled between July 9th and 12th as they found that Americans disapprove of Barack Obama’s handling of almost every major issue and are deeply pessimistic about the nation’s direction. A majority or plurality disapproves of Obama’s management of the economy, health care, the budget deficit, the overhaul of financial market regulations and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, almost 6 in 10 respondents say the war in Afghanistan is a lost cause. The Senate is scheduled to begin voting on the financial regulation bill today.
Almost two-thirds say they feel the nation is headed in the wrong direction, an even more sour assessment than in March when 58 percent felt that way. Two-thirds of independent voters are pessimistic, while just 56 percent of Democrats offer a vote of confidence. “They don’t see any solutions in sight,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm that conducted the nationwide survey. “They have been hammered by the economy and there is a disconnect between the lives Americans are living and Washington. They seem to have lost hope.”
Unfortunately for the right wing-nuts, The public’s disenchantment with the president’s policies doesn’t extend to voter feelings about Obama himself, as he gets a job approval rating of 52 percent and personally is viewed favorably by 55 percent. Obama, 48, remains more popular than any of the Republican figures tested in the poll and is topped only by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (61% favorable) and General David Petraeus, the new commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, among a list of 15 people and political parties reviewed.
The top polling Republican leader was Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, who gets a 32 percent favorable rating while the rest of the Republican party were nominated for the lead role in the sequel to "Despicable Me."
Dylan Ratigan had a great article this morning called "Lies Divide, Truth Unites" saying: "The good news in America today is that many of lies from our leaders and media no longer seem to be working" and we can only hope that he is right and that the American public will come out of their stupor and remember who they are. Speaking of remembering, here’s a cool cartoon about Capitalism from the 1940s. What I find most interesting about it is how many of those ideals have gone out the window and how the conservatives and the media now put tremendous time and effort into convincing you that the Corporate Kleptocracy that has taken over America has anything at all to do with real Capitalism.
"Only" 429,000 Americans were given pink slips last week but continuing claims rose to 4.68M, up 270,000 from last week – which is BAD. Fortunately, they won’t be counted as unemployed at the end of the month because WE CUT THEIR BENEFITS OFF – isn’t that brilliant!?! Who says you can’t be compassionate AND conservative?
The PPI was a very deflationary -0.5% and the NY Fed was a disastrous 5.08, down about 75% from Junes 19.57 reading. Industrial production also took a dive – down to 0.1% from 1.3% last month while Cap Utilization held steady at 74.1%. We get the Philly Fed at 10 am and, if it’s as bad as the New York Fed then we’re not going to have a good day but we’re holding our levels and consolidating for a move UP and it will take more than a little bad news to justify these low valuations against these high earnings.
