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Wednesday, December 25, 2024

The Oxen Report: Is It Just Me or Is This Market Starting to Look Toppy?

Hey all. I will get to my introduction after the post. Today, I feel like every stock I look at is really toppy, so I am sticking with a short sale today and an Overnighter later on. Yesterday, we started our Buy Pick of the Week in Teradyne Inc. (TER). We got involved at 10.20 while the market was still down, and the stock soared to 10.65 by the end of the day. I had set an exit range for the week of 10.60 – 10.80. So, we took the profits unsure of what today had in store for a very solid one day play for 4.5%. Watch out for an Oxen Alert for an Overnight Trade to get into this afternoon for tomorrow morning. 

TER is up to 10.90 this morning if you are still holding.

 

Short Sale of the Day: US Steel Corp. (X)

Analysis: Yesterday, I was looking for an Overnight Trade, and I pondered doing my first Overnight Short in this company. I thought this risk is way too high, but we would have been sitting cool this morning as US Steel Corp. (X) disappointed investors with a weaker than expected earnings report, especially after competitor AK Steel (AKS) had such a strong report. US Steel reported an EPS of 0.45 vs. the expected 0.63 while AK Steel reported an EPS of 0.24 vs. an expected 0.07. Further, AK Steel improved revenue by over 100%, while X only improved 20%. When not excluding one-time items, the company actually reported a loss.

The silver lining for US Steel was that they guided for a Q3 profit, and the market is looking upwards. Yet, US Steel is down 3% this morning, showing me that investors really were not thrilled with the news as nearly every other reporting company made me look like an idiot for not pulling the trigger on any of them for an Overnight Trade. That is because they all are very overvalued, in the short term, and US Steel is no different.

The company is right at the top of its upper bollinger band, and its RSI is above 60 going into today. This is a stock that has been overbought moving into earnings. X has jumped 15% in the past five sessions. US Steel is going to open pretty far down. I would expect a small pop to start the morning before this one falls on its face. 

US Steel had disappointing earnings, and they were not as good as they were expected. Further, its competitor was able to completely surprise everyone…where is the discrepancy. Its in the company that saw its operating costs double year-over-year, while AKS was able to see their own operating costs controlled through smart leveraging and cost control.

Get into X early after a pop!

Entry: We are looking to enter X at 48.00 – 48.50.

Exit: We are looking to gain 2-3% and cover.

Stop Buy: 3% on top.

 

Good Investing,

David Ristau

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