Sabrient Select Opportunity Virtual Portfolio

August 23, 2010 – The Week Ahead

I won’t bother to insert a chart of the SPY this week like I normally do. Suffice is to say that it is ugly. I am anticipating another leg down. Nevertheless, keep in mind that charts only reflect the past, and they can turn on a dime…and often do when things look bleakest.

All major indexes remain below both their 50- and 200-day simple moving averages and are struggling to hold support at the August lows. The market continues to confound trend riders as it flip-flops between starting a new uptrend and then a new downtrend.

Lastweek, I harvested some profits by closing partial positions in shorts FHN and GDP when they hit the 10% profit mark. Also, I’m happy with the way long positions HUM and FCX are holding up relative to the shorts (FHN, GDP, TXI) and the overall market.

Open Positions

Going into the week, we have two long positions and three short positions.

LONGS:

We are still long half of the original position in Humana (HUM) from $48.75. The stock closed Friday at $48.51, which is below my mental stop loss at the entry price of $48.75, but I like the way the stock is behaving in this period of market weakness, so I elected to hold a little longer. It is rated STRONG BUY in the Sabrient Ratings Algorithm, and carries an Outlook Score of 99.5, a Growth Score of 91, and Momentum Score of 89. HUM offers a desirable combination of solid fundamentals and defensive characteristics. I will watch it closely at this point for possible stop loss.

We are long a full position in Freeport McMoRan ( FCX) from $70.20. The stock closed on Friday at $71.37, after reaching as high as $74.30 on Thursday when the Materials stocks were running up. It is rated BUY in the Sabrient Ratings Algorithm, and carries an Outlook score of 74, a Value Score of 76, Growth Score of 74, and Momentum Score of 81. I have a mental stop at a closing price below $66.06, which was the July 21 closing price at the start of the recent run.

SHORTS:

We are short 2/3 of a full position in First Horizon National (FHN) from $11.23 after harvesting the first round of profits on 1/3 of the original position. The stock closed Friday at $10.27, and hit as low as $9.87 on Thursday. FHN is rated SELL by the Sabrient Ratings Algorithm and carries a Company Outlook Score of 4, Value Score of 38, rowth Score of 30, and Mometum Score of 20. I will put my mental stop at a close above the entry price of $11.23.

We are short 1/4 of the original position in Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) from $12.70. We stopped out of half of the position awhile back when the stock showed irrational relative strength, but then we took profits of half of the remaining position last week when it showed the weakness I have been expecting. The stock closed Friday at $11.16, and got as low as $10.92 on Friday. GDP is rated STRONG SELL by the Sabrient Ratings Algorithm and carries a poor Company Outlook Score of 2 and a Momentum Score of 16. I am moving my mental stop to a close above the entry price of $12.70.

Watch List

LONGS:

Some stocks that I have on my Buy watch list include the following:

VECO

XRTX

SKX

AXS

TEO

FRX

OSK

ARLP

ECPG

BKI