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The Oxen Report: August Leaves $10000 Buy Virtual Portfolio Up 62% on Year and 5% Month-over-Month, Short Sale Virtual Portfolio Up Nearly 22% on Year

By david_ristau
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August was yet another terrific month for the Oxen Report. Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Virtual Portfolio for 2010 is up 65% so far this year with 113 trades. We have gotten 85 of these 113 actionable trades correct, giving the virtual portfolio a 75% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio is up over 21% thus far this year on 53 trades, and it has over a 79% success rate as well with 42 correct trades. Finally, we have a new virtual portfolio that just started in May for Long Term Investments. The virtual portfolio is not one that needs to be updated on a daily basis, but we will continue to watch for developments that would change my thoughts on our fair value estimates for them. Our 2009 virtual portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.

 
The way that my virtual portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account virtual portfolio for August of 2010 is available. The virtual portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action. If you would like to view January – June, click here.
 
The Buy/Overnight/Weekly Virtual Portfolio
 
07/30/2010 – 08/02/10 WATG 8.1 8.2 1.25% 31.6 3240.16       15480.85
07/30/2010 – 08/02/2010 KLIC 6.65 6.95 4.75% 194.5   4685.86     15675.35
08/02/10 HNT 23.7 24.31 3.00% 99.36     4292.49   15774.71
08/03/10 SKF 19.26 19.43 0.85% 22.43       3480.52 15797.14
08/03/2010 – 08/04/10 XEC 70.6 70.1 -0.75% -30.5 3209.66       15766.64
08/04/10 ONNN 6.85 6.87 0.33% 5.68   4691.54     15772.32
08/05/10 CROX 12.02 12.5 4.00% 163.36     4455.85   15935.68
08/05/10 – 08/06/10 BRKS 7.95 8.04 1.25% 31.33       3511.85 15967.01
08/06/10 SPWRA 12.8 13.42 4.00% 147 3356.66       16114.01
08/09/10 NVDA 9.48 8.99 -5.50% -250.06   4441.48     15863.95
08/10/10 LDK 7.28 7.42 2.00% 77.68     4533.53   15941.63
08/10/10 – 08/11/10 SPWRA 12.9 13.4 4.00% 128       3639.85 16069.63
08/11/10 – 08/12/10 ENS 23.7 22.4 -5.50% -191.3 3165.36       15878.33
08/12/2010 – 08/13/10 JWN 31.95 30.35 -5.00% -230.4   4211.08     15647.93
08/13/2010 – 08/18/10 STP 8.95 9.12 2.00% 78.02     4611.55   15725.95
08/16/10 URBN 30.7 31.6 3.00% 98.2       3738.05 15824.15
08/17/10 TER 9.64 9.76 1.25% 31.36 3196.72       15855.51
8/18/10 – 08/19/10 TECD 38.2 39.11 2.50% 92.1   4203.18     15947.61
08/19/10 – 08/20/10 VRGY 8.6 8.8 2.50% 99.2     4710.75   16046.81
08/23/10 TSL 22.6 23.45 3.75% 132.25       3870.3 16179.06
08/23/10 IRF 19 19.57 3.00% 87.76 3284.48       16266.82
08/24/10 BWS 12.5 12.86 3.00% 112.96   4316.14     16379.78
08/26/10 CAAS 14.2 14.62 3.25% 131.02     4841.77   16510.8
08/26/10 JCG 33.88 31.95 -6.00% -228.02       3642.28 16282.78
08/30/10 – 08/31/10 DCI 43.2 42.64 -1.25% -50.56 3233.92       16232.22
08/31/2010 – 09/01/10 LTXC 2.2 2.2 0.00% -8   4308.14     16224.22



Short Sale Virtual Portfolio
 
The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio, which is up 21% this year, is done in the same way as the Buy Virtual Portfolio. The only difference is that the Virtual Portfolio has three rotating accounts rather than four.
 
08/02/10 MNKD 7.33 7.12 3.00% 68.23 2733.43     8358.36
08/03/10 CTSH 63.4 61.55 3.00% 77.1   3007.07   8435.46
08/05/10 CRZO 22.70(DD, 22.50 and 22.90) 22.02 3.25% 53.12, 92.72 2826.15   2749.85 8581.3
08/10/10 FOSL 45.5 44.2 2.85% 77.8   3084.87   8659.1
08/11/10 CFN 22.90 (DD) 22.46 2.00% 90.92 2875.61   2799.31 8750.2
08/17/10 COT 6.63 6.5 2.00% 52.45   3137.32   8802.47
08/19/10 PETM 33.30(DD) 32 4.00% 205 2978.11   2901.81 9007.47
08/30/10 CSGS 18.52 18.16 2.00% 52.84   3190.16   9060.31
08/31/10 ENER 4.25 4.16 2.25% 53.38     2955.19 9113.69
 
Long Term Virtual Portfolio
 
 
Date of Entry Stock Entry Price Current Price % Change Fair Value Estimate
05/27/10 TSL 17.65 27.06 54% $30.00
06/04/10 GMCR 24.05 31.13 -29.45% $15.63
06/14/10 CAAS 18.3

14.85

-18.85%

 $28.78
06/18/10 JWN 38.65 29.75

-23%

 $52.00
06/25/10 JCI 27.5 27.75

0.9%

 $46.25
07/16/10 PAYX 26 25.48 -2% $40.30
07/23/10 SPWRA 12.5 11.05 -12% $16.50
08/06/10 JACK 19.4 20.97 8%

$32.00
08/13/10 SBS 40 39.87 -0.3% $60.00
08/20/10 F 11.7 11.86 1.25% $20.00
 
 
Good Investing,
 
David Ristau 

 

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Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.

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