September was another solid month for the Oxen Report, and by far, the best of 2010. Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Virtual Portfolio for 2010 is up 94% so far this year with 131 trades. We have gotten 98 of these 131 actionable trades correct, giving the virtual portfolio a 75% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio is up nearly 30% thus far this year on 62 trades, and it has over a 82% success rate as well with 51 correct trades. Finally, we have a new virtual portfolio that just started in September, which is the Longterm Ratings. The virtual portfolio is not one that needs to be updated on a daily basis, but we will continue to watch for developments that would change my thoughts on our fair value estimates for them. Our 2009 virtual portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.
The way that my virtual portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account virtual portfolio for September of 2010 is available. The virtual portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action. If you would like to view January – June, click here.
The Buy/Overnight/Weekly Virtual Portfolio
| 08/31/2010 – 09/01/10 | LTXC | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.00% | -8 | 4308.14 | 16224.22 | |||
| 09/02/10 | LTD | 23.75 | 24.23 | 2.00% | 77.26 | 4919.03 | 16301.48 | |||
| 09/07/10 | NSM | 12.9 | 12.25 | -5.00% | -183 | 3459.28 | 16118.48 | |||
| 09/07/10 – 09/08/10 | NAV | 44.93 | 44.6 | -0.75% | -31.43 | 3202.49 | 16087.05 | |||
| 09/08/10 | FAZ | 14.15 | 13.95 | -1.50% | -68.8 | 4239.34 | 16018.25 | |||
| 09/09/10 – 09/10/10 | LULU | 36.75 | 40.04 | 9.75% | 429.57 | 5348.6 | 16447.82 | |||
| 09/10/10 | DPS | 35.03 | 34.95 | -0.25% | -15.84 | 3443.44 | 16431.98 | |||
| 09/13/2010 – 09/15/10 | SVNT | 14.75 (DD) | 18.25 | 23.75% | 1775.8 | 4090.39 | 5127.24 | 18207.78 | ||
| 09/14/10 | ERY | 47.07 | 48 | 2.00% | 97.09 | 5445.69 | 18304.87 | |||
| 09/17/10 | ALKS | 14.95 | 14.8 | -1.00% | -42.5 | 3485.94 | 18262.37 | |||
| 09/17/10 | RIMM (SS) | 47.75 | 47.07 | 1.50% | 44.7 | 4135.09 | 18307.07 | |||
| 09/20/10 | PHM | 8.36 | 8.52 | 2.00% | 90.08 | 5217.32 | 18397.15 | |||
| 09/21/10 | DRV | 21.58 | 21.99 | 2.00% | 95.32 | 5541.01 | 18492.47 | |||
| 09/22/10 | BBBY | 41.92 | 43.45 | 3.65% | 118.99 | 3604.93 | 18611.46 | |||
| 09/22/10 | KBH | 11.84 (DD) | 12.15 | 2.70% | 239.68 | 4196.29 | 5395.8 | 18851.14 | ||
| 09/23/10 | NOVL | 5.95 | 6.12 | 3.00% | 150.27 | 5691.28 | 19001.41 | |||
| 09/27/10 | AAI | 7.19 | 7.4 | 3.00% | 97.21 | 3702.14 | 19098.62 | |||
| 09/29/10 | WOR | 15.35 | 16 | 4.30% | 169.45 | 4365.74 | 19268.07 | |||
| 09/30/10 | MOS | 58.6 | 60.4 | 3.00% | 157.6 | 5553.4 | 19425.67 |
Short Sale Virtual Portfolio
The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio, which is up over 29% this year, is done in the same way as the Buy Virtual Portfolio. The only difference is that the Virtual Portfolio has three rotating accounts rather than four.
| 09/02/2010 – 09/08/10 | KBH | 11.62 (TD) | 11.51 | 1.00% | 62.24 | 2998.86 | 3210.91 | 2976.93 | 9175.93 |
| 09/09/10 | LEN | 14.67 (DD) | 14.32 | 2.00% | 131.7 | 3064.71 | 3276.76 | 9307.63 | |
| 09/14/10 | TER | 9.85 | 9.66 | 2.00% | 49.38 | 3026.31 | 9357.01 | ||
| 09/16/10 | RIMM | 46.29 | 47.07 | 1.50% | 43.48 | 3108.19 | 9400.49 | ||
| 09/16/10 | AIR | 19.13 | 18.75 | 2.00% | 56.98 | 3333.74 | 9457.47 | ||
| 09/17/10 | OSK | 27.84 | 27.1 | 2.75% | 71.92 | 3098.23 | 9529.39 | ||
| 09/21/2010 – 09/23/10 | NBR | 18.45 | 18.09 | 2.00% | 52.48 | 3160.67 | 9581.87 | ||
| 09/24/10 | TIBX | 18.6 | 18.14 | 2.50% | 74.34 | 3404.08 | 9656.21 | ||
| 09/29/10 | THOR | 32.58 | 33.23 | 2.00% | 55.65 | 3153.88 | 9711.86 |
Long Term Ratings
| Date of Initial Rating | Stock | Entry Rating | Exit Rating | Current Rating | FV Estimate |
| 09/10/10 | FSLR | Below 130 | Above 198 | Hold | 174 |
| 09/14/10 | SKX | Below 22 | Above 32 | Hold | 28.5 |
| 09/17/10 | ALGN | Below 15 | Above 24.50 | Hold | 22 |
| 09/21/10 | CREE | Below 44 | Above 61 | Hold | 56 |
| 09/23/10 | RYL | Below 15.25 | Above 22 | Hold | 20 |
| 09/27/10 | FTR | Below 13.50 | Above 15 | Buy | 16 |
| 09/28/10 | TSL | Below 27 | Above 45 | Hold | 38.5 |
| 09/29/10 | GMCR | Below 17 | Above 25 | Sell | 22 |
Good Investing,
David Ristau
