October was another solid month for the Oxen Report, but some gains were limited by two major losses in FSI International (FSII) and Skechers (SKX). Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Virtual Portfolio for 2010 is up 109% so far this year with 155 trades. We have gotten 117 of these 155 actionable trades correct, giving the virtual portfolio a 75.5% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio is up nearly 39% thus far this year on 71 trades, and it has over an 83% success rate with 59 correct trades. Month-over-month, the Buy Virtual Portfolio went up 8% from September, and Short Sale Virtual Portfolio went up 5%. Finally, we have a new virtual portfolio that just started in September, which is the Longterm Ratings. This virtual portfolio is summarized below. Our 2009 virtual portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.
The way that my virtual portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account virtual portfolio for September of 2010 is available. The virtual portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action. If you would like to view January – June, click here.
The Buy/Overnight/Weekly Virtual Portfolio
| 10/01/10 | FAS | 21.78 | 21.83 | 0.22% | 5.05 | 5696.33 | 19430.72 | |||
| 10/05/10 | STZ | 17.75 | 17.93 | 1.00% | 29.44 | 3731.58 | 19460.16 | |||
| 10/06/10 | Mar | 37.68 | 36.18 | -4.20% | -180.5 | 4185.24 | 19279.66 | |||
| 10/06/2010 – 10/07/10 | DPZ | 13.21 | 13.91 | 5.40% | 286 | 5839.4 | 19565.66 | |||
| 10/11/10 | TSL | 28.8 | 29.54 | 2.50% | 137.78 | 5834.11 | 19703.44 | |||
| 10/11/2010 – 10/13/10 | ISTA | 4.27 | 4.43 (1/2), 4.51 (½) | 5.00% | 166.6 | 3898.18 | 19870.04 | |||
| 10/12/10 | ERY | 38.3 | 39.04 | 2.00% | 72.66 | 4257.9 | 19942.7 | |||
| 10/12/10 | WGO | 10.5 | 10.9 | 4.00% | 214.4 | 6053.8 | 20157.1 | |||
| 10/13/10 | SWY | 20.8 | 21.42 | 3.00% | 165.6 | 5999.71 | 20322.7 | |||
| 10/14/2010 – 10/15/10 | WBS | 18.1 | 18.52 | 2.33% | 82.3 | 3980.48 | 20405 | |||
| 10/14/2010 – 10/18/10 | ENTG | 5.03 | 5.18 | 3.00% | 118.9 | 4376.8 | 20523.9 | |||
| 10/15/2010 – 10/20/10 | SLM | 11.22 | 11.13 | -0.80% | -56.51 | 5997.29 | 20467.39 | |||
| 10/15/2010 – 10/18/10 | GFIG | 4.93 | 5.1 | 4.00% | 198.72 | 6198.43 | 20666.11 | |||
| 10/18/10 | FAS | 21.45 | 22.09 | 3.00% | 110.4 | 4090.88 | 20776.51 | |||
| 10/18/10 | HBAN | 5.71 | 5.6 | -2.00% | -92.26 | 4284.54 | 20684.25 | |||
| 10/19/2010 – 10/25/10 | TSL | 26.34 (DD) | 27.6 | 4.80% | 571.38 | 6282.98 | 6484.12 | 21255.63 | ||
| 10/19/2010 – 10/20/2010 | FSII | 3.06 | 2.58 | -15.50% | -649.28 | 3441.6 | 20606.35 | |||
| 10/20/10 – 10/25/10 | ENTG | 4.85 | 4.93 | 2.00% | 62.64 | 4347.18 | 20668.99 | |||
| 10/21/2010 – 10/25/10 | AAWW | 52.92 | 54.87 | 4.50% | 118.75 | 3560.35 | 20787.74 | |||
| 10/25/2010 – 10/28/10 | SKX | 23.8 | 23.75 (1/2), 19.44 (½) | -9.25% | -341.29 | 3219.06 | 20446.45 | |||
| 10/26/2010 – 11/01/10 | YGE | 11.62 (DD) | 11.74 | 1.00% | 101.68 | 4398.44 | 6334.24 | 20548.13 | ||
| 10/27/2010 – 10/28/10 | KEG | 10 | 10.15 (1/3), 10.30 (1/3), 10.02 (1/3) | 1.60% | 82.6 | 6365.58 | 20630.73 | |||
| 10/27/2010 – 10/28/10 | KKD | 5.63 | 5.67 | 0.60% | 38.04 | 6522.16 | 20668.77 | |||
| 10/28/2010 – 11/01/10 | JKS | 29.99 | 30.90 (2/3), 36.35 (1/3) | 9.10% | 315.14 | 3534.2 | 20983.91 |
Short Sale Virtual Portfolio
The Short Sale Virtual Portfolio, which is up over 29% this year, is done in the same way as the Buy Virtual Portfolio. The only difference is that the Virtual Portfolio has three rotating accounts rather than four.
| 10/01/10 | GYMB | 50.2 | 51.58 | 2.75% | 77.56 | 9789.42 | |||
| 10/07/2010 – 10/08/2010 | WFR | 12.92 (DD) | 12.68 | 2.00% | 109.68 | 3215.51 | 3458.92 | 9899.1 | |
| 10/11/10 | FO | 55.15 | 55.35 | -0.45% | -19.4 | 3134.48 | 9879.7 | ||
| 10/19/10 | STX | 15.6 | 15.3 | 2.00% | 53.8 | 3269.31 | 9933.5 | ||
| 10/21/10 | AXP (Buy) | 39.8 | 40.1 | 0.75% | 17.8 | 3476.72 | 9951.3 | ||
| 10/21/10 | IIIN (DD) | 9.18 | 8.93 | 2.80% | 77.25 | 3211.73 | 10028.55 | ||
| 10/26/10 | ENTG (Buy) | 5.42 | 5.67 | 5.00% | 142.75 | 3412.06 | 10171.3 | ||
| 10/26/10 | SCHN | 52 | 51.7 | 0.60% | 11.8 | 3488.52 | 10183.1 | ||
| 10/28/10 | KKD (Buy) | 5.51 | 5.67 | 3.20% | 85.12 | 3298.85 | 10268.22 |
Long Term Ratings
| Date of Initial Rating | Stock | Entry Rating | Exit Rating | Current Rating | FV Estimate |
| 09/10/10 | FSLR | Below 130 | Above 198 | Hold | 174 |
| 09/14/10 | SKX | Below 22 | Above 32 | Hold | 28.5 |
| 09/17/10 | ALGN | Below 15 | Above 24.50 | Hold | 22 |
| 09/21/10 | CREE | Below 44 | Above 61 | Hold | 56 |
| 09/23/10 | RYL | Below 15.25 | Above 22 | Hold | 20 |
| 09/27/10 | FTR | Below 13.50 | Above 15 | Buy | 16 |
| 09/28/10 | TSL | Below 27 | Above 45 | Hold | 38.5 |
| 09/29/10 | GMCR | Below 17 | Above 25 | Sell | 22 |
| 10/01/10 | JWN | Below 33 | Above 52 | Hold | 45 |
| 10/05/10 | JCI | Below 27 | Above 43 | Hold | 35 |
| 10/07/10 | PAYX | Below 27 | Above 36 | Hold | 34 |
| 10/13/10 | SPWRA | Below 15 | Above 24 | Buy | 21.5 |
| 10/20/10 | F | Below 11.50 | Above 20 | Hold | 17 |
| 10/22/10 | JACK | Below 24 | Above 31 | Buy | 30 |
| 10/29/10 | BIG | Below 41 | Above 59 | Buy | 54 |
Good Investing,
David Ristau
