Hey all. Hope everyone is doing well. As promised, I will be posting things on here from time to time…2 or 3 articles per week perhaps. I wanted to pass along today’s article. My new website again is www.theoxengroup.com. Feel free to comment, and I will respond.
TGIF! Its been a tough, long week. We are holding three positions moving into the final day of the week, and we are looking to close shop on them. BIG had disappointing earnings at a penny miss on EPS and downgraded outlook. It was a disappointing report for them, and one I will have to spend some more time with since I like it longterm. We will be looking to exit this one at the open for the final 1/4 of the position we have left. We continue to hold TSL with an average entry at 23.20. We are looking to exit at 23.60s or higher. Finally, we are most likely going to just get rid of KERX to start the morning as it is near our stop loss of 4.90.
As for today, I will be looking to add a new Midterm Trade to the fold on today’s pullback, and we are going to have a new Longterm Ratings Report up with Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG).
Good luck out there today!
Midterm Trade of the Day: Human Genome Sciences Inc. (HGSI)
Analysis: We are taking a look at a new position in a pharmaceuticals company Human Genome Sciences (HGSI). This company has some 
definite upward movement in its sights for next week. The reason behind its movement is due to the company’s approval date of its drug Benlysta on Thursday from FDA. The drug is a treatment drug for the ailment Lupus. If approved, it will be the first drug centered at targeting lupus in fifty years with no rival drugs and a market potential in the billions. The drug is very neat and creates antibodies that help cells remain alive when struck by Lupus.
The key, though, is if it gets approved. Leading up to its approval, the drug has hailed a ton of support from the Lupus community and various foundations that support the battle against lupus. Further, the drug had outstanding results from its tests. The drug met all its endpoint requirements in trials, and it was the first lupus drug in years to even show positive results. The trial showed that just two uses of Benlysta showed great improvements of Lupus patients versus those given a placebo.
The stock, additionally, got a 13-2 FDA panel approval when undergoing review. While it was not unanimous and the FDA does not always follow its panels, it was a very positive vote. There were problems that the panel brought up with the efficacy of the drug and whether or not its results were really effective enough to warrant approval. Despite these concerns, approval is still expected. The stock took a dive weeks ago when these concerns were brought up, and it still has not recovered.
Moving into next week, though, The Oxen Group is very excited about this opportunity. The stock retains an RSI below 50, and if approved is entering what could be over a $3 billion market potential. Lenrick Swann’s analyst commented:
The moment of truth is… positive overall we believe, since language from the FDA is cautious and mixed (as it usually is in comprehensive briefing tomes), but there is nothing noted that we would not expect to be a fair topic of discussion for a groundbreaking new drug in an extremely difficult disease state. We saw no new data that Human Genome has not previously released that looked less positive than what has previously been presented and continue to expect a positive panel vote.
With approval expected, many would assume that the stock would have priced in an approval. Since, the approval of the panel committee, the stock has slipped close to 4%. Moving into next week, this stock looks very promising before the FDA announcement, which is what we want to play. We make take a small position into the more risky approval day but it should be good for 3-5% before the announcement.
Get in now!
Entry: We are looking to get involved at 25.05 – 25.25.
Exit: We are looking to exit for a 3-5% gain at least.
Stop Loss: 5% on bottom.
Good Investing,
David Ristau
