Yesterday? Market up 160, today market up over 100. At least if you watch the Dow. The rest of the market? Horrible action and no volume. That’s also another reason why we locked in some gains this morning in about the only sector left in clearly defined uptrends — energy. Of course those too are now starting to sport negative divergence so that’s an early warning sign to be aware of as well not to mention energy stocks are already reversing.
60-Minute frequency charts
So what if it’s just an abc down and we are done going down? Well given the damage we’re seeing to a lot of individual stocks out there? Makes us feel that’s a low probability. But remember we live in the world of Uncle Ben and his wild rice gang so anything can happen. When stocks go into corrections they don’t repair themselves in a few days. If they do? It’s a too far too fast scenario and you don’t want them anyway (think SINA, see any low risk entry point when you look at its chart?). See the SPX? 40 points in like two days folks. Pretty big move already compliments of the famous gap opens.
To see us retest the recent lows or even lower would not be out of line here. Proceed with caution. It’s the weekend and we’ll have more to say in Sunday’s newsletter.
Yesterday we said and still stands today:
"Bottom line, if the indexes are tracing out 5 waves down abcde waves down we still have more work to do to the downside before it’s all said and done."===========================================================
WHAT EXACTLY DO I WANT TO ACCOMPLISH WITH MY OVERALL Virtual PORTFOLIO IN 2011 REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE MARKET DOES OR THROWS AT ME?
===========================================================
SHORT SELL WATCH LIST
NFLX is starting to get that look, as in First Thrust down, snapback rally and bombs away?
Keep in mind this is a NOT FOR THE FAINT AT HEART name prone to big swings in each direction.
See the 1st Thrust down? It’s what we will be spending our time looking for this weekend. BIDU might also be building out something similar, we’ll take a deeper look at it this weekend.
============================================================
LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?
SLV
NEW NAME
31ish looks like a decent level to allow it to come to you. It’s also near the 50-day average at that point too. Notice how small our long side watch list got all of a sudden? See the wicked reversals in a lot of the leadership over the last year? That sloppy choppy chew you alive action speaks volumes about the markets.
=====================================================
Featured But Not Trade Triggered By Us
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
RAX
This issue just does not want to go over 38. Odds favor that if the market rolls back over so will this.
CVLT
Same deal with this issue as with our notes on RAX
ALTR
KLAC
NOG
=====================================================
All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
CALL OPTIONS
Current Holdings
DECK We are now long 1 April 70.00 Call at 14.80 as we post they are currently trading at 10.40
Reversing higher after early weakness from nike’s earnings — guilt by association.
CVX — We WERE long 1 April 90 call at 9.85
Per this morning’s trade trigger alert we are no longer in this position . We bought at 9.85 sold at 13.65 for a gain of 38%, not bad for 4 days worth of work.
=======================================================
CURRENT POSITIONS
"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
WLL (We WERE LONG 200 shares at 62.57)
Per this morning’s locking in gains trade trigger alert we bought this issue on the 14th of the month and 8 wicked news driven days later we walked away with a 1094.00 gain.
See what it’s done since? Keep an eye on all the oils they are not looking all that great here today.
DECK (We are now LONG 200 shares at 83.55)
Any break of the little red line and we will stop out of this issue. Notice today’s lows? Potential retest of a recent low. Could be a good thing. For now? We sit.
CVX (We WERE LONG 150 shares at 99.24)
Per this morning’s locking in gains trade trigger alert we bought this issue on the 14th of the month and 4 wicked news driven days later we walked away with a 628.00 gain. In this climate? to be able to make anything on the long side? Fine by us and all for the cause.
See what it’s done since we walked away? In fact see what most of the oils are doing? Sure is looking like they are in the process of reversing here.
COP (We WERE LONG 200 shares at 75.44)
Per this morning’s locking in gains trade trigger alert we bought this issue on the 14th of the month and 4 wicked news driven days later we walked away with a 542.00 gain.
See what it’s done since we walked away?
NXPI (We are now LONG 325 shares at 26.56)
So far so good. Just remember from 26.56 to 28.56 is worth $650.00 for those who use the "Just get me my $500 a week, week in week out month in month out"
AAPL (We are now LONG 50 shares at 341.25)
See what this issue is doing? Nothing, it’s just back and forth in really wide daily ranges.
To Sum It All Up
Here we are in bounce mode. If that is what you want to call it. Of course we have to get through the "into the close" and the end of the week with it being options expiration too mind you.
SHORT SIDE POSITIONS
NONE but I know what we’ll be doing all weekend — looking for short sell set-ups.
=============================================================
To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
================================================
Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
