A break of the green line gets the ball rolling on the short side here. Right now the jury is out on the market as you can see we are above the green POL line and we are for the most part going sideways. So this is either the pause that refreshes before another gap up to suck in more retail dollars or we are stalling here. Watch that green line. SIDE NOTES Below are a few charts of interest to some of you. At the least good things to consider staying away from or are developing change in trend patterns, in this case up to down.
A lot of energy stocks are looking sloppy here and toppy. Numerous names are showing either a double top or are still in first thrust down. The exception is CVX which is commonly used to prop the dow. Most others don’t look all that great right here, technically speaking of course. Surely none are showing any low risk buy entry points here. =========================================================== For weeks we’ve been highlighting numerous times the First Thrust Down pattern. Below are a few examples.
SHORT SELL WATCH LIST NOT FOR THE FAINT AT HEART! — CMG and BIDU BIDU
The blue box is first thrust down. It’s now in a wicked snap-back wide range bear channel rally and is pushing a trend channel resistance by a smidge.
CMG
The blue box is first thrust down. It’s now in a wicked snap-back wide range bear channel rally. BRY
Not yet. But keep an eye on it as a monkey can flip a switch at any time. Same goes for the rest of the names on our short side watch list — close and none setting the world on fire up or down here.
XLE
CLF
This one looks the best because its tagging the 50 day average. If it stalls here? Then we’ll want to get serious with it.
LONG SIDE WATCH LIST If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?
VXX
First Thrust Up (blue box) then Pullback Off Highs (POH) upon completion of the POH? (Pink) It’s time to buy.
SDS
This one is high on the list. We personally probably won’t be doing this one as we prefer individual stocks on the short side however we also are aware that a lot of you can’t short but are interested in short side exposure. That said, this is your baby. We’ll be keeping an eye on it and monitoring it for you daily for awhile. Just remember market breaks to downside this takes off.
===================================================== This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
RAX
KLAC
NOG
SLV
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month. Options Watch List
CLF The ones we want to look at are the APRIL 100 puts. With the stock at 91.00 these are priced at 10.00 which means you are paying 1.00 points for time. BRY There are two classes one can look at with this issue. They are the APRIL 50 puts. With the stock at 47.42 these are priced at 3.40 by 4.00 which means you are paying 1.40 points for time. XLE The ones we want to look at are the APRIL 84 puts. With the stock at 77.50 these are priced at 7.00 which means you are paying 50 cents for time.
CURRENT POSITIONS "Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit" LONG SIDE POSITIONS
SHORT SIDE POSITIONS NFLX
To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help. We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable. One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned. As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example. Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall. Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example. Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal. We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty. We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are. WELCOME ABOARD! ================================================ Lastly with regards to taking any trade: Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew. Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do. SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site. |
