Mid-Day Update

And sure enough, here we are into that orange circle gap by a smidge. With all the gaps up we’re just a gap day or two away from a full blown retest of the highs here. Nothing suprises us anymore.

So let’s go long right? Well there really aren’t too many good looking names to go long on here. The time to go long was when we featured and went long at the bottom of the C wave. Funny thing though too. That was also the time when nobody wanted to go long (think in the face of fear on the longside). Now everyone wants to go long? With 25 SPX points away from a retest of the highs?

We’re all for being long, but we’re not for chasing things here. We’re all for high quality long sidechart patterns and we’re not seeing tons like we saw back in Nov. 2010.

Sure there are some and there always will be but we’re just not seeing a massive amount of names that make us comfortable going long on. Sure a week or two ago we saw a bunch and even since then things have been iffy and now all of a sudden things are alright?

We’d just rather continue to take it slow in here. For us? We’ll hang with our fledgling positions and a lot of cash till we can see some quality structure to work with long or short. We have a lot of names on the short side watch list. When they break they break. So at this point we either retest the highs or we don’t.

So what if we retest the 1343 SPX highs? What are we going to do if we get there? Nothing with regards to our positions that is.

Because here we are with a few fledgling positions on the short side. The total value of our model virtual portfolio is 169,000. The amount invested via short side exposure is 23% The amount of Cash is 77% For us all thanks to trade size position risk management and not biting off more than we can chew it. This allows us to be able to have issues give us a little guff without it ever getting us into any real deep trouble (make note of that folks, it’s a failsafe).

Given how close the indexes (SPX) are to a full blown retest of the recent highs of 1343 (which as we post is a whopping 25 points away) at this point instead of REACTING because we have a few issues of ours causing a stir (think in the face of fear on the short side) we’ll sit tight with then and allow ourselves to feel the fear without allowing it to emotionally get us into a tizzy. Nothing that we all haven’t been through before mind you and nothing that we all won’t go throug again over the span of our investing careers.

Here are the 60 -minute charts for your vertical viewing pleasure.

SHORT SELL WATCH LIST

For weeks we’ve been highlighting numerous times the First Thrust Down pattern. Below are a few examples.

SHORT SELL WATCH LIST

ALLT

GEOI

Both ALLT and GEOI tend to be a little on the thin side (average daily volume) so keep that in mind. As you can see though both broke hard and have snapped back up to the 50 day. We’ll see if the 50 day acts as resistance.

With both of them, its all about a downside break of the Pink lines for shorting.

BRY

Nothing to talk about here yet.

XLE

CLF

It’s all about a downside break of the Bearish rising wedge. Watch for it.

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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST

If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?

SDS
BACK ON LIST

3-21 So if you buy right here what is your risk? The blue support line which is basically a little over a 1-point pop from here. Keep in mind in order for this to break support the SPX has to break into a new high. But even if the SPX were to break into a new high it doesnt mean its going to stick. See all the gaps up the SPX is creating off the recent lows? Odds favor they get filled.
This one is high on our list.

3-23 As you can see at the open this issue crossed over the pink line. And of course after that dust settled its pulled back of those morning highs. Still though, keep an eye on it if you are looking for short exposure without having to short stocks.

3-25 Backtesting the trendline break to the upside. Remember major support is the blue line.

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Featured But Not Trade Triggered By Us

This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.

CVLT

3-23 For those interested, this issue finally cleared the little red line. Resistance is a retest of the highs.

3-25 And here it is.

ALTR

SLV

New highs, and a new short term support level to watch and that is now the 33 level from a few days ago.

And by popular demand below is GLD

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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends

NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.

Options Watch List

ALL PUT OPTIONS All APRIL expiration

CLF
The ones we want to look at are the APRIL 100 puts. With the stock at 94.50 these are priced at 7.50 which means you are paying 2.00 points for time.

BRY

There are two classes one can look at with this issue.

They are the APRIL 50 puts. With the stock at 48.50 these are priced at 2.15 by 2.65 which means you are paying 1.00 point for time.

The other ones are the APRIL 55 puts. with the stock at 48.50 these are priced 6.10 by 6.80 which means you are paying 30 cents for time.

XLE

The ones we want to look at are the APRIL 84 puts. With the stock at 78.50 these are priced at 6.50 which means you are paying 50 cents for time.

Current Holdings

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CURRENT POSITIONS

"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"

LONG SIDE POSITIONS

VXX (We are now LONG 300 shares at 32.58 as of 3-23-11)

SHORT SIDE POSITIONS

NFLX (We are now SHORT 75 shares at 220.19 as of 3-22-11)

BIDU (We are now SHORT 100 shares at 127.81 as of 3-23-11)

So here we are with a few fledgling positions on the short side. The total value of our model virtual portfolio is 169,000. The amount invested via short side exposure is 23% The amount of Cash is 77% For us all thanks to trade size position risk management it allows us to be able to have issues give us a little guff without it ever getting us into any real deep trouble (make note of that folks) . Given how close the indexes (SPX) are to a full blown retest of the recent highs of 1340 which as we post is a whopping 22 points away. So at this point instead of REACTING cause we have a few issues of ours causing a stir we’ll sit tight with then and allow ourselves to feel the fear without allowing it to emotionally get us into a tizzy. Nothing that we all haven’t been through before mind you and nothing that we all won’t go through again over the span of our investing careers.

Assuming let’s say a 10% stop loss on NFLX and BIDU as you can see we are well within those guidelines. NFLX for us is down 3.9% BIDU for us is down 4.9%. VXX is giving us a little guff but support is near should it choose to tag that level, down 7.9%

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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS

What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.

We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.

We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.

One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.

As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.

Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.

Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.

Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.

We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.

We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.

WELCOME ABOARD!

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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:

Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.

Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:

1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss

Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.

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Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.

THESE ARE NOT BUY RECOMMENDATIONS! Comments contained in the body of this report are technical opinions only. The material herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, however, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. All About Trends reserves the right to refuse service to anyone at anytime for any reason. Allabouttrends.net is not an investment advisor, hence it does not endorse or recommend any securities or other investments. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and it is not to be deemed an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities. All trademarks, service marks and trade names appearing in this report are the property of their respective owners, and are likewise used for identification purposes only. The member/subscriber agrees that he/she alone bears complete responsibility for his/her own investment/trading decisions.Allabouttrends.net shall not be liable to anyone for any loss, injury or damage resulting from the use of any information. Trade at you’re own risk, this information is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. Allabouttrends.net assumes NO responsibility whatsoever for any losses expe rienced by anyone who uses its educational materials to make financial decisions. All charts courtesy of stockcharts.com .

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