Mid-Day Update

We’d like to say something different than we did yesterday but there just isn’t much new. We still have a few days into the quarter end and we still have our game plan and are sticking to it. We honestly don’t see any reason for the market to get sold off till we get the end of the quarter out of the way Thursday after the close. So in the meantime today’s buzz words are status quo and it’s a market of stocks.

Here are your "Into The End Of The Quarter" Trend Channel charts.

Over the weekend we said:

"It’s the end of the quarter next week if it wasn’t the end of the quarter we’d be very bearish and actually we are overall. BUT given we are as close to a retest of the highs as we are all into the famous Quarter End where magical things can happen? Don’t be surprised to see a retest of the highs on all the indexes. Would it surprise you? Not us."

Keep in mind we are not saying it is going there as we don’t know nor does anyone else for that matter, all we are saying is that it wouldnt surprise us.

So here is the game plan.

Over the weekend we said:

"We sweat with our fledgling short positions and let them cycle back around with most likely that occurring after the quarter end. Same goes for those of you who have short exposure via inverse index ETFs. A retest of the highs from here into quarter end means you’ll feel some pain with them temporarily but not really a big deal if you’ve employed proper trade size risk management. Consider it a part of that thrilling roller coaster ride that you feel in your stomach, it’s only temporary.

We look to scalp a few trades on the long side into quarter end but only in issues we don’t have to feel like we are chasing a bus with. We have two names in the long side watch list that we are willing to consider that with."

APKT

BSFT

We are now long both of these and right now one is trying to follow through to the upside (APKT) and the other (BSFT) is just sitting there.

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SHORT SELL WATCH LIST

For weeks we’ve been highlighting numerous times the First Thrust Down pattern. Below are a few examples.

SHORT SELL WATCH LIST

3-29 Keep in mind we are in the "Into The End Of The Quarter" phase of the market right here, don’t expect any real downside action till after the quarter ends.

Then? It’s welcome to earnings season 2 weeks later. That ought to be a doozy.

ALLT

GEOI

BRY

3-29 Nothing to talk about here yet.

XLE

CLF

3-29 With all names on the short side watch list odds favor not seeing any action there till at least after the quarter ends.

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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST

If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?

SDS
BACK ON LIST

3-29 Here too dont expect any real action till this quarter ends.

3-21 So if you buy right here what is your risk? The blue support line thats what. Which is basically a little over a 1 point pop from here. Keep in mind in order for this to break support the SPX has to break into a new high. But even if the SPX were to break into a new high it doesnt mean its going to stick. See all the gaps up the SPX is creating off the recent lows? Odds favor they get filled.
This one is high on our list.

3-23 As you can see at the open this issue crossed over the pink line. And of course after that dust settled its pulled back of those morning highs. Still though, keep an eye on it if you are looking for short exposure without having to short stocks.

3-27 Keep in mind IF IF IF the market does the "In To Quarter End" Pump which is more strength early next week then this issue is going lower and near major support. USE THE US DOLLAR chart’s double bottom with a shake out low example as a guide for what COULD (doesnt mean it will but could) occur with it over the next week. If you own it and we get a shake out low in it don’t get scared.

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Featured But Not Trade Triggered By Us

This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.

ALTR

SLV

3-23 New highs, and a new short term support level to watch and that is now the 33 level from a few days ago.

And by popular demand below is GLD

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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends

NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.

Options Watch List

ALL PUT OPTIONS All APRIL expiration

CLF
The ones we want to look at are the APRIL 100 puts. With the stock at 96.67 these are priced at 5.25 which means you are paying 2.00 points for time.

BRY

There are two classes one can look at with this issue.

They are the APRIL 50 puts. With the stock at 49.66 these are priced at 1.90 which means you are paying 1.60 point for time. FORGET THAT! These get deleted from watch list.

The other ones are the APRIL 55 puts. with the stock at 49.66 these are priced at 5.80 which means you are paying 50 cents for time.

XLE

The ones we want to look at are the APRIL 84 puts. With the stock at 79.00 these are priced at 5.50 which means you are paying 50 cents for time.

Current Holdings

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CURRENT POSITIONS

"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"

LONG SIDE POSITIONS

APKT (We are now LONG 150 shares at 70.67 as of 3-28-11)

Shown at beginning

BSFT (We are now LONG 250 shares at 43.65 as of 3-28-11)

Shown at beginning

VXX (We are now LONG 300 shares at 32.58 as of 3-23-11)

SHORT SIDE POSITIONS

3-29 As mentioned in a few other areas in this update, don’t expect any real downside action till we get thru the end of the quarter, this goes for VXX too.

NFLX (We are now SHORT 75 shares at 220.19 as of 3-22-11)

BIDU (We are now SHORT 100 shares at 127.81 as of 3-23-11)

3-24 As far as NFLX and BIDU go as you can see, its like we said- Not for the faint at heart. For us its not a big deal right here. Why? Trade size position risk management.

3-25 So here we are with a few fledgling positions on the short side. The total value of our model virtual portfolio is 169,000. The amount invested via short side exposure is 23% The amount of Cash is 77% For us all thanks to trade size position risk management it allows us to be able to have issues give us a little guff without it ever getting us into any real deep trouble (make note of that folks) . Given how close the indexes (SPX) are to a full blown retest of the recent highs of 1340 which as we post is a whopping 22 points away. So at this point instead of REACTING cause we have a few issues of ours causing a stir we’ll sit tight with then and allow ourselves to feel the fear without allowing it to emotionally get us into a tizzy. Nothing that we all havent been thru before mind you and nothing that we all wont go thru again over the span of our investing careers

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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS

What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.

We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.

We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.

One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.

As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.

Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.

Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.

Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.

We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.

We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.

WELCOME ABOARD!

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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:

Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.

Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:

1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss

Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.

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