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Yesterday in the super short term nano time frequency charts we talked about the indexes having a nano nano Pullback Off Highs pattern showing in which we basically said we could still get some upside here. Fast forward to today in nano time and sure enough now you know why we are up. By the same token those POH’s that we highlight a lot around here take place in ALL TIME FRAMES AND FREQUENCIES — day traders take note. That’s what these one-minute nano charts are for.
Note, as you can see AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME (subject to the next moment in time due to a fluid ever changing environment) we could be looking at a Mork from Ork "nano nano" double top here. Still though there is that 1344 level out there that is shown on the daily chart below that needs to be dealt with. It’s all about the close and tommorrow’s opening gap up if you ask us. The nano OTC comp chart below shows the same thing.
Below are your daily charts and they are talking.
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Game Plan For The Week Of April 4th Thru 8th
Given what we are seeing above in the indexes and many individual names we are not overly excited about the long side of the market here. Given we are seeing more "Change In Trends" patterns showing we will continue to focus upon those and as they trigger we’ll pick them off one at a time. No need to try to chase performance on the longside here folks as there are a lot of buses that you have to chase and that just all ends badly.
We have some short side exposure and we have a watch list dominated with names that have bearish patterns that we can work with — IT’S ALL ABOUT TRENDLINE BREAKS TO THE DOWNSIDE WITH THOSE.
Whether we top next week or not who knows as we still have a little bit of gap upside to go on the SPX to a retest of the highs for a potential double top to be put in or at the least put us at resistance. When you couple that with what we are seeing chart patternwise and so many names extended? We are sitting right where we want to be sitting.
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SHORT SELL WATCH LIST
Consider this section of the newsletter the "Get The Gun Loaded" and be prepared area for you forward thinkers.
VMW
Quick question for you all. What’s the overall trend on this stock. Up or down.
Quick answer- Down, as in its in a big red downtrending channel with PINK LINE POL’s (Pullbacks Off Lows) POL’s folks are the flip side to POH’s and are used for stocks that are in clearly defined down trends.
Well you got your breakdown yesterday and like we said watch for a snapback and here we are. We’ll watch it for another day or so.
KLAC
Still locked in that bear channel ALTHOUGH the last 5 days gives it that POH look so we’ll want to continue to watch it here. The ultimate would be a retest of the highs 5 days ago and fails. Its at this point what we need to see to get us interested on the short side.
ARMH
4-3 Currently pulling back off the lows (POL) up to the 50 day. It’s all about a downside break of the pink line.
4-5 Has that overall V pattern going on like most everything else. By the way- V patterns are very unstable just so you know. Why? Most have ZERO support. See any V patterns out there? I see a lot.
They suck you in, put on a lot of points, make you feel good, make you feel like quitting your day job, then ultimately bury you.
GEOI
Well here is that retest of the highs. Say if we are all about buying pullbacks off highs should we be considering buying this issue here? See any POH? Us neither, all we see is resistance.
BRY
Here we are sitting at resistance NOT SUPPORT, that’s why this is on the short sell WATCH list.
XLE
Five days of nowhere.
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?
AAPL
BACK ON LIST
Nice down open and if your were a DAY TRADER? You bought weakness in the 336 range now 342 not a bad weeks worth of work, too bad we aren’t day traders. Still overall it’s sloppy and hasnt gone anywhere since first of the year for the most part. For us? It’s going to take weakness should we see it in the 330 or less level as stated on the chart.
This issue ought to be interesting the next 2 weeks. Know why? Well if it sells off its selling off into earnings which is just what we would want to see. A move down to support would be nice HOWEVER we are not the boss, the market is. This issue is going to do what its going to do and we have no control over it. Thats a key to success in the market by the way- Knowing what you have control over and what you dont.
All we are saying is what we’d like to see/need to see to get us interested in this issue on the longside again. If it happens? Great we can work with that. If it doesnt? It’s on to the next stock.
SDS
BACK ON LIST
3-31 Our notes from 3-27 pretty much sum it up. Anyone who bought it a few weeks ago getting scared here? If so? Good. Why? Its always darkest just before the dawn. Say if its always darkest just before the dawn on the short side whats that say about the longside? Hmmmm isnt the Sun is always brightest at its peak right?
3-21 So if you buy right here what is your risk? The blue support line thats what. Which is basically a little over a 1 point pop from here. Keep in mind in order for this to break support the SPX has to break into a new high. But even if the SPX were to break into a new high it doesnt mean its going to stick. See all the gaps up the SPX is creating off the recent lows? Odds favor they get filled.
This one is high on our list.
3-27 Keep in mind IF IF IF the market does the "In To Quarter End" Pump which is more strength early next week then this issue is going lower and near major support. USE THE US DOLLAR chart’s double bottom with a shake out low example as a guide for what COULD (doesnt mean it will but could) occur with it over the next week. If you own it and we get a shake out low in it don’t get scared.
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Featured But Not Trade Triggered By Us
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
BSFT
SLV
And by popular demand below is GLD
4-5 Sitting at resistance
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Options Watch List
ALL PUT OPTIONS All APRIL expiration
BRY
The ones to watch are the APRIL 55 puts. with the stock at 51. these are priced at 3.80 which means you are paying 70 cents for time.
XLE
The ones we want to look at are the APRIL 84 puts. With the stock at 80.22 these are priced at 5.30 which means you are paying 50 cents for time.
Current Holdings
CLF (We are now long 1 APRIL 110 Put Option at 12.25)
As we post they are priced at 9.00
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CURRENT POSITIONS
"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
APKT (We are LONG 150 shares at 70.67 as of 3-28-11)
And there you have it, the little mini POH called the ball. Now we just need some follow through to a retest of the highs.
VXX (We are now LONG 300 shares at 32.58 as of 3-23-11)
With the indexes spitting distance away from a full blown retest of the highs it stands to reason that this issue is near retesting the lows.
SHORT SIDE POSITIONS
CLF (We are now SHORT 125 shares at 98.16 as of 3-31-11)
Well here we are sitting at resistance , if the issue and the market break? We are there.
NFLX (We are now SHORT 75 shares at 220.19 as of 3-22-11)
3-30 Resistance and MAY be forming a double top.
BIDU (We are now SHORT 100 shares at 127.81 as of 3-23-11)
4-1 Might want to look at the chart of VMW in the short side watch list. Looks pretty similiar if you ask us.
3-24 As far as NFLX and BIDU go as you can see, its like we said- Not for the faint at heart. For us its not a big deal right here. Why? Trade size position risk management.
3-25 So here we are with a few fledgling positions on the short side. The total value of our model virtual portfolio is 169,000. The amount invested via short side exposure is 23% The amount of Cash is 77% For us all thanks to trade size position risk management it allows us to be able to have issues give us a little guff without it ever getting us into any real deep trouble (make note of that folks) . Given how close the indexes (SPX) are to a full blown retest of the recent highs of 1340 which as we post is a whopping 22 points away. So at this point instead of REACTING cause we have a few issues of ours causing a stir we’ll sit tight with then and allow ourselves to feel the fear without allowing it to emotionally get us into a tizzy. Nothing that we all havent been thru before mind you and nothing that we all wont go thru again over the span of our investing careers.
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
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SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE
Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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