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SHORT SELL WATCH LIST
Consider this section of the newsletter the "Get The Gun Loaded" and be prepared area for you forward thinkers.
VMW
Quick question for you all. What’s the overall trend on this stock. Up or down.
This issue is high on our list for selling short, but earnings are just 12 days away.
KLAC
Figures! We delete it from our watch list and it breaks down. That mini POH bothered us though.
ARMH
It’s all about a downside break of the pink line.
Has that overall V pattern going on like most everything else. By the way V patterns are very unstable just so you know. Why? Most have ZERO support. See any V patterns out there? We see a lot.
They suck you in, put on a lot of points, make you feel good, make you feel like quitting your day job, then ultimately bury you.
GEOI
4-6 Well folks there is the trendline break to the downside, from here? if we see any intraday higher movement like our recent conversation on VMW then we’ll consider short selling it.
Those who have never sold stocks short we would suggest you google how to short stocks and see what comes up so as to learn from it and stick around as you’ll get hands on experience from just watching around here.
4-3 Well here is that retest of the highs folks. Say if we are all about buying pullbacks off highs should we be considering buying this issue here? See any POH? Us neither, all we see is resistance.
BRY
4-6Today’s action could have been a shake and bake high. What’s a shake and bake? Thats when an issue breaks out into a new high, the novice breakout buyers get all shaken up emotionally with a phrase like "UT OH! its breaking out I gotta buy buy buy, then the market bakes them by rolling over soon after.
XLE
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?
PAY
NEW NAME to WATCH and we stress watch here.
AAPL
BACK ON LIST
For us? It’s going to take weakness should we see it in the 330 or less level as stated on the chart. It’s what we need to see to get us interested on the longside. Sub 330 that is, not here thats for sure.
This issue ought to be interesting the next 2 weeks. Know why? Well if it sells off its selling off into earnings which is just what we would want to see. A move down to support would be nice HOWEVER we are not the boss, the market is. This issue is going to do what its going to do and we have no control over it. Thats a key to success in the market by the way- Knowing what you have control over and what you dont.
All we are saying is what we’d like to see/need to see to get us interested in this issue on the long side again. If it happens? Great we can work with that. If it doesnt? It’s on to the next stock.
SDS
BACK ON LIST
3-31 Our notes from 3-27 pretty much sum it up. Anyone who bought it a few weeks ago getting scared here? If so? Good. Why? Its always darkest just before the dawn. Say if its always darkest just before the dawn on the short side whats that say about the longside? Hmmmm isnt the Sun is always brightest at its peak right?
3-21 So if you buy right here what is your risk? The blue support line thats what. Which is basically a little over a 1 point pop from here. Keep in mind in order for this to break support the SPX has to break into a new high. But even if the SPX were to break into a new high it doesnt mean its going to stick. See all the gaps up the SPX is creating off the recent lows? Odds favor they get filled.
This one is high on our list.
3-27 Keep in mind IF IF IF the market does the "In To Quarter End" Pump which is more strength early next week then this issue is going lower and near major support. USE THE US DOLLAR chart’s double bottom with a shake out low example as a guide for what COULD (doesnt mean it will but could) occur with it over the next week. If you own it and we get a shake out low in it don’t get scared.
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Featured But Not Trade Triggered By Us
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
BSFT
4-7 If you had your stop loss at break even you are now out of this stock. Traders won, investors lost. Why? We bought in the 43 range , sold in the 46 range now at 42.50 thats why.
SLV
4-6 Bottom line? EXTENDED
And by popular demand below is GLD
4-6 Potential shake and bake high in here? But hey we don’t buy fresh breakouts with the indexes approaching major resistance on negative divergence anyway.
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Options Watch List
ALL PUT OPTIONS All MAY expiration
4-7 NOTE: being this close to April expiration we will now be looking into MAY expiration from this point forward.
BRY
The ones to watch are the MAY 55 puts. with the stock at 51.55 these are priced at 3.80 which means you are paying 70 cents for time.
Current Holdings
CLF
(We are now long 1 APRIL 110 Put Option at 12.25)
As we post they are priced at 11.70
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CURRENT POSITIONS
"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
APKT
(We are LONG 150 shares at 70.67 as of 3-28-11)
We see any retest of the highs and we’ll lock our gains as fast as possible. For those who dont want to babysit or stay glued to a screen alday you can always place an order to sell at 76.97 ish. You want the one that is only at the price you state or the one where it becomes a market order to sell when it hits a certain level. In this example 76.97. With us?
Fromhere what we will want to do is set a stop at breakeven on the issue SET YOUR STOPS ACCORDINGLY for those who werent fast enough to walk away at this mornings highs. For us? Any strength and we’ll want to consider walking away and calling it another day.
VXX (We are now LONG 300 shares at 32.58 as of 3-23-11)
With the indexes spitting distance away from a full blown retest of the highs it stands to reason that this issue is near retesting the lows. This is a support level much like the indexes are sitting at a resistance level. This issue typically trades inverse the indexes. Its also a play on Nervous Nellies fear.
Exactly the kind of action we want to see at a major support level. One day at a time folks one day at a time.
SHORT SIDE POSITIONS
CLF (We are now SHORT 125 shares at 98.16 as of 3-31-11)
4-6 AWESOME, doing exactly what it should be doing when it hit resistance, like we’ve said "90% of this is getting in the zone and 10% is emotionally sweating it out while in the zone"
4-5 Well here we are sitting at resistance , if the issue and the market break? We are there.
NFLX (We are now SHORT 75 shares at 220.19 as of 3-22-11)
4-6 AWESOME, here too exactly the action one wants to see at resistance and a potential double top.
3-30 Resistance and MAY be forming a double top.
BIDU (We are now SHORT 100 shares at 127.81 as of 3-23-11)
4-6 Never fails, typically the most extended stocks (you know the ones that everyone who has no self disipline that are ruled by theyre emotions?) are the ones who get it the hardest when the monkey flips the switch, all we have to say is chasing buses is hazardous to ones health.
Remember, for those who "Have to have it?" the market does a good job of letting them have it, only problem is is that its usually not the way they want to have it.
4-1 Might want to look at the chart of VMW in the short side watch list. Looks pretty similiar if you ask us.
3-24 As far as NFLX and BIDU go as you can see, its like we said- Not for the faint at heart. For us its not a big deal right here. Why? Trade size position risk management.
3-25 So here we are with a few fledgling positions on the short side. The total value of our model virtual portfolio is 169,000. The amount invested via short side exposure is 23% The amount of Cash is 77% For us all thanks to trade size position risk management it allows us to be able to have issues give us a little guff without it ever getting us into any real deep trouble (make note of that folks) . Given how close the indexes (SPX) are to a full blown retest of the recent highs of 1340 which as we post is a whopping 22 points away. So at this point instead of REACTING cause we have a few issues of ours causing a stir we’ll sit tight with then and allow ourselves to feel the fear without allowing it to emotionally get us into a tizzy. Nothing that we all havent been thru before mind you and nothing that we all wont go thru again over the span of our investing careers.
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
