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NOTE: Yesterday we talked about raising the stop loss level on APKT to break even. If you havent already adjusted your order do so now. We say that as if the market continues south as does APKT at least you wash on the trade vs taking a loss. Placing a stop loss order on the books allows that trade to be on auto pilot without you having to babysit that trade and allows you to get on with your life. That’s the beauty of placing those orders on the books. One minute index charts: 60 minute index charts:
If you are a bear we are struggling at resistance, if you are a bull we are consolidating at the highs. So which is it? How about both. A breakout of the struggle here takes us to a retest of the highs on each index as shown on the 60 minute charts, but then what? That’s only 5 SPX points away or shall we say a gap open away. A breakdown? Well who knows. The other day the follow the screamers after they already screamed were getting hit fairly hard. Today those same stocks are catching some bids, net result? Nowhere just like the indexes. It’s the weekend and we’ll have more to say then. We’ve got a couple of names on the long side we will touch upon that could be new emerging leadership over the next year in a killer theme out there so don’t miss it. Below is your standout stock of the day that we’ll want to watch for a backtest of today’s action before considering going long. Can you say cup and coming up the right side of the handle?
Lastly in the why we watch for double tops all the time dept. is SWKS which WAS a darling until recently. This stock will need to build a whole new base/bottom of cup from here to be able to reassert any of its past leadership qualities. ========================================================= Game Plan For The Week Of April 4th Thru 8th We have some short side exposure and we have a watch list dominated with names that have bearish patterns that we can work with IT’S ALL ABOUT TRENDLINE BREAKS TO THE DOWNSIDE WITH THOSE. Whether we top next week or not who knows as we still have a little bit of gap upside to go on the SPX to a retest of the highs for a potential double top to be put in , at the least resistance and when you couple that with what we are seeing chart patternwise and sooooo many names extended? We are sitting right where we want to be sitting.
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Consider this section of the newsletter the "Get The Gun Loaded" and be prepared area for you forward thinkers. VMW
Like we said yerterday in the chart, here we are right up to the 50 day average. HOWEVER earnings are due in 11 days. It’s all about a downside break of the pink line. Has that overall V pattern going on like most everything else. By the way — V patterns are very unstable just so you know. Why? Most have ZERO support. See any V patterns out there? We see a lot. They suck you in, put on a lot of points, make you feel good, make you feel like quitting your day job, then ultimately bury you.
4-6 Well folks there is the trendline break to the downside, from here? if we see any intraday higher movement like our recent conversation on VMW then we’ll consider short selling it. Those who have never sold stocks short I would suggest you google how to short stocks and see what comes up so as to learn from it, that and stick around as you’ll get hands on experience from just watching around here. 4-3 Well here is that retest of the highs folks. Say if we are all about buying pullbacks off highs should we be considering buying this issue here? See any POH? Me neither, all I see is resistance. BRY
4-6 Today’s action could have been a shake and bake high. What’s a shake and bake? Thats when an issue breaks out into a new high, the novice breakout buyers get all shaken up emotionally with a phrase like "UH OH! It’s breaking out I gotta buy buy buy, then the market bakes them by rolling over soon after. 4-8 sitting in new high ground and at resistance.
Popped at the open, now at the lows of the day. So from yesterday’s close ?Sure its up. But from the open? its down, just like CLF ============================================================ LONG SIDE WATCH LIST If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it? PAY
All we are saying is what we’d like to see/need to see to get us interested in this issue on the longside again. If it happens? Great we can work with that. If it doesnt? it on to the next stock. SDS 3-31 Our notes from 3-27 pretty much sum it up. Anyone who bought it a few weeks ago getting scared here? If so? Good. Why? Its always darkest just before the dawn. Say if its always darkest just before the dawn on the short side whats that say about the longside? Hmmmm isnt the Sun is always brightest at its peak right? 3-27 Keep in mind IF IF IF the market does the "In To Quarter End" Pump which is more strength early next week then this issue is going lower and near major support. USE THE US DOLLAR chart’s double bottom with a shake out low example as a guide for what COULD (doesnt mean it will but could) occur with it over the next week. If you own it and we get a shake out low in it don’t get scared. This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
4-8 Bottom line? EXTENDED And by popular demand below is GLD
===================================================== NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month. Options Watch List 4-7 NOTE: being this close to April expiration we will now be looking into MAY expiration from this point forward. BRY The ones to watch are the MAY 55 puts. with the stock at 52.70 these are priced at 4.20 which means you are paying 1.90 dollars for time. Forget that!
Current Holdings
CLF (We are now long 1 APRIL 110 Put Option at 12.25)
As we post they are priced at 10.70 =======================================================
CURRENT POSITIONS
"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit" LONG SIDE POSITIONS
APKT
(We are LONG 150 shares at 70.67 as of 3-28-11) If we see any retest of the highs and we’ll lock our gains as fast as possible. For those who dont want to babysit or stay glued to a screen alday you can always place an order to sell at 76.97 ish. I think its called a LIMIT order. You want the one that is only at the price you state or the one where it becomes a market oder to sell when it hits a certain level. In this example 76.97. With us?
VXX (We are now LONG 300 shares at 32.58 as of 3-23-11) 4-6 With the indexes spitting distance away from a full blown retest of the highs it stands to reason that this issue is near retesting the lows. This is a support level much like the indexes are sitting at a resistance level. This issue typically trades inverse the indexes. Its also a play on Nervous Nellies fear. Exactly the kind of action we want to see at a major support level. One day at a time folks one day at a time.
CLF (We are now SHORT 125 shares at 98.16 as of 3-31-11)
4-6 AWESOME, doing exactly what it should be doing when it hit resistance, like we’ve said "90% of this is getting in the zone and 105 is emotionally sweating it out while in the zone"
4-5 Well here we are sitting at resistance , if the issue and the market break? We are there.
NFLX
(We are now SHORT 75 shares at 220.19 as of 3-22-11) 4-6 AWESOME, here too exactly the action one wants to see at resistance and a potential double top. 3-30 Resistance and MAY be forming a double top. BIDU (We are now SHORT 100 shares at 127.81 as of 3-23-11) 4-6 Never fails, typically the most extended stocks (you know the ones that everyone who has no self disipline that are ruled by their emotions?) are the ones who get it the hardest when the monkey flips the switch, all we have to say is chasing buses is hazardous to ones health. Remember, for those who "Have to have it?" the market does a good job of letting them have it, only problem is is that its usually not the way they want to have it.
3-24 As far as NFLX and BIDU go as you can see, its like we said- Not for the faint at heart. For us its not a big deal right here. Why? Trade size position risk management. 3-25 So here we are with a few fledgling positions on the short side. The total value of our model virtual portfolio is 169,000. The amount invested via short side exposure is 23% The amount of Cash is 77% For us all thanks to trade size position risk management it allows us to be able to have issues give us a little guff without it ever getting us into any real deep trouble (make note of that folks) . Given how close the indexes (SPX) are to a full blown retest of the recent highs of 1340 which as we post is a whopping 22 points away. So at this point instead of REACTING cause we have a few issues of ours causing a stir we’ll sit tight with then and allow ourselves to feel the fear without allowing it to emotionally get us into a tizzy. Nothing that we all havent been thru before mind you and nothing that we all wont go thru again over the span of our investing careers.
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help. We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable. One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned. As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example. Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall. Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example. Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal. We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty. We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are. WELCOME ABOARD! ================================================ Lastly with regards to taking any trade: Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew. Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do. SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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