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Sunday, December 22, 2024

The Oxen Report – Bank Stock Looking Very Solid Moving Into Earnings

Good Wednesday to all. Yesterday was a day to forget, but this morning, we are looking much more cheery with good numbers out of JP Morgan and a decent retail sales report.The banks appear to be following higher with JP Morgan’s earnings allaying fears over whether banks could make money with new regulations. It appears so. JPM reported a nice 1.28 EPS over the 1.15 EPS expectations. We are currently holding Apple (AAPL), First Solar (FSLR), and DR Horton (DHI) short. Here is the plan:

AAPL – We entered at 331.80. We are looking to exit our first 1/3 of the position at the open since it looks poised to open above our first target of 1%. Our next target is going to be 340.

FSLR – Looks ready to open at where we bought it, and we are looking to exit our first 1/3 in this position at 146. Everyone got in cheaper than me so take a 1/3 exit at 1% gain if you get it.

DHI – We will close out short at the open…it was just working as a hedge.

Let’s get into today’s pick…

Unknown ObjectBuy Pick of the Day: Comerica Inc. (CMA)

Analysis: Comerica looks to be a solid pickup moving into the earnings as the company has several days before earnings and is showing some life in the stock. The company received an upgrade last week, has received a lot of positive options action as of late with tons of calls being bought, and was one of our highest rated companies in the Earnings Preview done by EquityAnalytics. The company is going to be growing EPS by 204% swinging from a steep loss at -0.46 one year ago to 0.48 consensus this quarter. Additionally, the company is coming off of a great quarter one quarter ago when they beat EPS by 71% and reduced loan losses. The reaction was not great due to the company buying Sterling Bancshares as part of the report.

The company looks poised for some nice gains moving into earnings as the financial sector got a strong support line today from JP Morgan (JPM) that should continue until at least Friday when we hear from Bank of America (BAC). Regional banks start Friday with Webster and Monday morning with Keycorp (KEY). Comerica has shown strength when other financials have not, and we like that support that the company is getting and should continue into earnings. The company is a bit overvalued, but we would rather have a financial the market likes instead of one we hope they will start to like. The stock has jumped nearly 5% in the past week.

Technically, the company’s fast stochastics are nearing a top, but we believe it has legs to $40. The company’s RSI is still only at 58, and the stock is just starting to get love from its industry and sector. The stock just broke a key price channel and is on a great support line. This stock actually looks ready to break out technically…

Get into CMA!

 

Entry: We are looking to buy at 38.80 – 39.10.

 

Exit: We are looking to exit the first half for a 2% gain.

Stop Loss: 2% on bottom.

Timeline: Daytrade to Midterm Trade.

Oxen Entry: Close to open.


Good Investing,

The Oxen Group

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