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Fireworks should be expected after the close when Google announces earnings. It ought to be interesting to say the least. If they are bad? It might allow us our in the face of fear trade on AAPL calls via guilt by assoc. If good? We still have the downtrendline to cross to the upside first with AAPL. Google at the money optoins are 14 points for the calls and 13 points for the puts for a spread of 27 points when you add the two together. We’ll see if the old adage of a 27 point move in after hours is going to happen this time around. One problem — we dont know which way and that’s always the way it is. At the money straddles just don’t have the allure they did in the 90’s you know. But it ought to be fun to WATCH. Yesterday we said: "As you can see we MAY still have to retest yesterday’s lows or even a tag of 1305 before we can get any lasting lift — still though this isn’t where the action is." Sure enough here we are still in index Pullback Off Highs Mode (POH)
As far as the indexes go, we aren’t going to make any serious attempt at a potential retest of the highs until we cross to the upside of the Pink Pullback Off Highs lines. They are all you need to know, in addition to trend chennal support/resistance and the 50 day average are all about mind you. ========================================================= Game Plan For The Week Of April 11th Thru 15th 4-11 We want to focus upon the names that are in clearly defined uptrends pulling back off highs with structure we can work with on the longside all the while managing our current holdings. In order to do that we’ll want to use weakness to pick off some names on the longside. 4-12 Which is exactly what we’ve done this morning 4-13 And this morning too in CAT and MOTR 4-14 And here we are stalking names with quality structure that we can work with all the while managing our current positions. As for the VXX and our short exposure, we’ll monitor them accordingly. All three of them though are still for the most part extended vs our names on the watch list hence a market of stocks and something for everyone. VXX and SDS are two names that are more for a hedge purpose and we may have to continue to sweat them out and cycle back around, of course this assumes we dont fall on our face from here, if so? we are there and will enjoy the ride. LONG SIDE WATCH LIST If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it? 4-12 NOTE: It’s earnings season, We have yet to check when earnings are due on the issues below so be aware and make sure you know when that is to occur.
4-10 It’s all about an upside crossover of the Pink line to the upside to go long.
PNRA
4-10 Any weakness as long as it stays above the 50 day and blue line is fine by us. The 50 day defines your risk. 4-13 Still for some reason looks as though it might just need a little bit of chart time down here. Keep an eye on the 120 level.
4-14 Sloppy but building out the Pullback Off Highs pattern (POH).
4-14 Little different animal in such that it looks ugly, BUT the 200 day typically acts as a support level for issue when they first go into intermediate term corrections.
4-14 Sloppy but building out a pattern, a nice tight POH here would be just what the Dr. ordered.
PANL — POH developing.
DE
4-14 Has that POH look not to mention its came back to what one could say is a right side of cup crossover level. Similiar to CAT however not as tight as CAT. Three days of stabilization here at the 50 day thus far bodes well for this name. SDS
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SHORT SELL WATCH LIST
Consider this section of the newsletter the "Get The Gun Loaded" and be prepared area for you forward thinkers. NONE Featured But Not Trade Triggered By Us This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint. 4-11 Bottom line? EXTENDED And by popular demand below is GLD NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month. Options Watch List 4-14- Look at the charts of IRBT,CAT, PAY frame those charts in your mind’s eye and memorize them. Those are the chart patterns that you really want to key in on when it comes to doing call options on when they come down to trend channel support/50 day that is. 4-12 Same goes for CAT and IRBT as shown in the longside watch list.
Current Holdings PAY (We are now long 2 MAY 46 Call Options to open at 7.40) As we post they are currently at 8.50- 9.40 CAT (We are now long 1 MAY 95 Call Options to open at 12.80) As we post they are currently trading at 11.75 CURRENT POSITIONS "Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit" LONG SIDE POSITIONS 4-12 All in all considering there is a lot of damage being done and has been done the last few days we used that to our advantage vs chasing stocks and allowed them to come to us. So far so good as all three of our new longside in the face of potential fear was the right play. Don’t forget keep an eye on IRBT and CAT as they look very close to PAY.
CAT (We are LONG 150 shares at 107.35 as of 4-13-11) 4-14 Nice controled corrective pullback to the 50 day and support. See how fast it bounced off the lows this morning? 4-13 Also take a look at the chart of DE-Deere looks similar but not as tight and clearly defined as CAT, at the least you can see a POH of the recent highs. MOBI (We are LONG 250 shares at 12.39 as of 4-11-11)
MOTR (We are LONG 300 shares at 13.15 as of 4-13-11) 4-14 Let’s keep an eye on 330 and any trap door open in the days ahead for call option purposes. 4-12 Looking good here so far. Stable 4-10 Any opening weakness and we might just take a little to be there. Should this issue break support and head to the blue line in the 300 level after we buy it? Who cares, it basically amounts to about a 10% loss. BUT this is the kingpin of all stocks in the market, think that 300 supprt level wont stick? Odds favor in that event it gets defended. Of course this assumes it were to fall out of bed the next few months anyway. Last week we said: All we are saying is what we’d like to see/need to see to get us interested in this issue on the longside again. If it happens? Great we can work with that. If it doesnt? it on to the next stock.
VXX (We are now LONG 300 shares at 32.58 as of 3-23-11) 4-13 Basically 2 weeks of nowhere. 4-12 we’ll sit tight per out game plan for the week. Same goes for BIDU 4-6 With the indexes spitting distance away from a full blown retest of the highs it stands to reason that this issue is near retesting the lows. This is a support level much like the indexes are sitting at a resistance level. This issue typically trades inverse the indexes. Its also a play on Nervous Nellies fear. Exactly the kind of action we want to see at a major support level. One day at a time folks one day at a time. SHORT SIDE POSITIONS We’ll stay short this name here as it’s still a nose bleed name
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help. We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable. One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned. As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example. Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall. Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example. Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal. We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty. We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are. WELCOME ABOARD! ================================================ Lastly with regards to taking any trade: Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew. Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do. SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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