Mid-Day Update

Yesterday we said:

"Fireworks are expected after the close with GOOG’s earnings. It ought to be interesting to say the least. If they are bad? It might allow us our in the face of fear trade on AAPL calls via guilt by assoc. If good? We still have the downtrendline to cross to the upside first with AAPL. Google at the moneys are 14 points for the calls and 13 points for the puts for a spread when you add the two together of 27 points. We’ll see if the old adage of a 27 point move in after hours is going to happen this time around. One problem, we don’t know what way, and that’s always the way it is. At the money straddles just don’t have the allure they did in the 90’s you know. Ought to be fun to WATCH."

Anyone see the initial after hours action? Yep down 26-29 points and in line with the straddle numbers. Now? Out of control. So anyone who actually had the guts to straddle this issue into earnings actually got paid (that’s a surprise). The calls went to zero and the puts took off like a rocket. Amazing.

Why it pays to pay attention to what your watch list is doing by the action the names on it exhibit

As we all know the market has been working its way lower here for days now, not hours anymore. All the while though there are individual names that have been trading to the beat of their own drum. Three such names we’ve highlighted in the last week have all done very well with 2 of them taking off like rockets for you do it yourselfers as well as those who trade in tandem with us.

Earlier in the week we had IRBT sporting a nice POH within the channel at the 50-day and trend channel support now thanks to a NAVY contract has tagged trend channel resistance.

Then there is PAY. Here too a name that was very similiar chart patternwise to IRBT. Hey 52 to 54-55 isnt all that bad in a couple of days percent wise. A retest of its highs are around 57-58 by the way.

Then there is MOBI which is now on a tear and out of control

So you see it pays to pay attention to our watch list and also pays to memorize that of the following phrases:

"Let your stocks tell you what to do by the action they exhibit"

"It’s a market of stocks not just a stock market"

All the while the indexes have been pulling back.

We aren’t out of the woods just yet as short term we are gyrating back and forth in what appears to be a corrective fashion (stable and controled) vs an impulsive fashion (take you out and clean nervous Nellie’s clock). That potentially bodes well for things from here. Couple that with a lot of names setting up decent long side structure? Well what more can one ask for in here — all for 30 bucks a month. Heck 100 shares of MOBI when we did it paid for a years worth of our service. The rest is all peaches and cream.

It’s the weekend and we’ll have more to say about the indexes then and oh by the way, we have about 4-5 new long side names to add to the watch list this weekend — all decent looking POH’s developing and one could say a few with completed cups that are in the handle.

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Game Plan For The Week Of April 11th Thru 15th

4-11 We want to focus upon the names that are in clearly defined uptrends pulling back off highs with structure we can work with on the longside all the while managing our current holdings. In order to do that we’ll want to use weakness to pick off some names on the longside.

4-12 Which is exactly what we’ve done this morning
4-13 And this morning too in CAT and MOTR
4-14 And here we are stalking names with quality structure that we can work with all the while managing our current positions.
4-15 We added DE common and DE calls this morning.

See whats going on here with us? One step at a time and listening to the charts. Thats the process that needs to be always in the forefront of your mind.

As for the VXX and our short exposure, we’ll monitor them accordingly. All three of them though are still for the most part extended vs our names on the watch list hence a market of stocks and something for everyone.

VXX and SDS are two names that are more for a hedge purpose and we may have to continue to sweat them out and cycle back around, of course this assumes we dont fall on our face from here, if so? we are there and will enjoy the ride.

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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST

If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?

4-15 NOTE: It’s earnings season,make sure you know when earnings are due before putting your money to work.

ILMN
NEW NAME

4-10 It’s all about an upside crossover of the Pink line to the upside to go long.
4-12 One could say its there.

PNRA
NEW NAME

4-10 Any weakness as long as it stays above the 50 day and blue line is fine by us. The 50 day defines your risk.

4-15 Still for some reason looks as though it might just need a little bit of chart time down here. Keep an eye on the 120 level. starting to look like we might just be better off focusing on the ones that have a tighter look to them.

PPO
NEW NAME

4-15 Building out a POH and tightening up here! That’s a good thing.

SWKS
NEW NAME

4-15 If earnings weren’t due on the 20th, we’d have no problem picking off a couple of hundred shares to be there and sweat it out while in the 200 day average typically acts as suport zone. We don’t trade ahead of earnings as 50/50 odds are horrible odds.

4-14 Little different animal in such that it looks ugly, BUT the 200 day typically acts as a support level for issue when they first go into intermediate term corrections.

SPRD – bottom of a cup base building?
NEW NAME

4-15 Tightening up here over the last 4-5 days we will say that.

PANL — POH developing.
NEW NAME

4-15 Another day like today and we’ll step in in the face of fear and pick some up closer to support than resistance.

SDS

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SHORT SELL WATCH LIST

Consider this section of the newsletter the "Get The Gun Loaded" and be prepared area for you forward thinkers.

NONE

Featured But Not Trade Triggered By Us

This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.

Long side

SLV

4-15 Superman would be proud!

And by popular demand below is GLD

4-15 Here too superman would be proud

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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends

NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.

Options Watch List

4-14- Look at the charts of IRBT,CAT, PAY frame those charts in your mind’s eye and memorize them. Those are the chart patterns that you really want to key in on when it comes to doing call options on when they come down to trend channel support/50 day that is.

ALL MAY Expriation Folks

Current Holdings

DE (We are now long 1 MAY 85 Call Option to open at 9.40)

As we post they are currently at 9.35- 9.55

PAY (We are now long 2 MAY 46 Call Options to open at 7.40)

As we post they are currently at 8.30- 9.10

CAT (We are now long 1 MAY 95 Call Options to open at 12.80)

As we post they are currently trading at 13.20

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CURRENT POSITIONS

"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"

LONG SIDE POSITIONS

4-12 All in all considering there is a lot of damage being done and has been done the last few days we used that to our advantage vs chasing stocks and allowed them to come to us. So far so good as all three of our new longside in the face of potential fear was the right play. Don’t forget keep an eye on IRBT and CAT as they look very close to PAY.

DE (We are LONG 150 shares at 93.54 as of 4-15-11)

4-14 Has that POH look not to mention its came back to what one could say is a right side of cup crossover level. Similiar to CAT however not as tight as CAT. Three days of stabilization here at the 50 day thus far bodes well for this name.

4-15 Heck a move from here to a retest of the highs would be a nice trade now wouldn’t it. Still though, letls not get ahead of ourselves as the market is the boss not us. Same goes for CAT.

CAT (We are LONG 150 shares at 107.35 as of 4-13-11)

4-15 Nice controlled corrective pullback to the 50 day and support. See how fast it bounced off the lows ? So far so good and just the kind of action one wants to see off the 50 day average.

PAY (We are LONG 200 shares at 52.00 as of 4-12-11)

Shown Above

4-15 Looking good so far.

MOBI (We are LONG 250 shares at 12.39 as of 4-11-11)

Shown Above

4-15 Awesome! in the world of swing trading this is a home run. Funny how when you are looking for home runs they never happen but when your not? Well a fitting phrase that comes to mind is:

You can’t will things to happen but you can be willing to allow things to happen

MOTR (We are LONG 300 shares at 13.15 as of 4-13-11)

AAPL (We are LONG 50 shares at 331.40 as of 4-11-11)

4-15 Let’s keep an eye on 330 it’s still hanging here. Not really setting the world on fire just trying to make up its mind what it wants to do.

4-10 Any opening weakness and we might just take a little to be there. Should this issue break support and head to the blue line in the 300 level after we buy it? Who cares, it basically amounts to about a 10% loss. BUT this is the kingpin of all stocks in the market, think that 300 supprt level wont stick? Odds favor in that event it gets defended. Of course this assumes it were to fall out of bed the next few months anyway.

Last week we said:
This issue ought to be interesting the next 2 weeks. Know why? Well if it sells off its selling off into earnings which is just what we would want to see. A move down to support would be nice HOWEVER we are not the boss, the market is. This issue is going to do what its going to do and we have no control over it. Thats a key to success in the market by the way- Knowing what you have control over and what you dont.

All we are saying is what we’d like to see/need to see to get us interested in this issue on the longside again. If it happens? Great we can work with that. If it doesnt? it on to the next stock.

VXX (We are now LONG 300 shares at 32.58 as of 3-23-11)

4-15 Getting dicey here, we’ll have to see what kind of stabilization we get here at support. That could take a few days.

SHORT SIDE POSITIONS

BIDU (We are now SHORT 100 shares at 127.81 as of 3-23-11)

We’ll stay short this name here as it’s still a nose bleed name

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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS

What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.

We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.

We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.

One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.

As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.

Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.

Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.

Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.

We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.

We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.

WELCOME ABOARD!

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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:

Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.

Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:

1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss

Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.

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