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New York
Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Mid-Day Update

 

Yesterday we said:

"Over the weekend we talked about us being in a Pullback Off Highs (POH) mode via channels. That hasnt changed, whats changed is the slope and magnitude of the pullback. As we look at the short erm index charts we see that of an ABC pullback at today’s lows.  Whether it turns into an ABCDE pullback remains to be seen."

4-19 One look at the short term index charts shows the recent upswing off the face of fear lows yesterday as this POTENTIALLY with emphasis on potentially as a D wave. If that is the case there is one more leg down for the E wave. If not? We are on our way higher from here. We’ll really find out tomorrow after the close what the true score is as AAPL reports (so does SWKS, we’re going to suck it up and hold through earnings on both by the way) 

4-19 What’s really interesting to note is that all the while we are locked in a downtrend channel the name of the game has been that of it being "A Market Of Stocks, Not A Stock Market" — case in point:

AAPL — Low 320’s to 333
AAPL MAY 305 Calls — 26.90 to 31.75
MOBI — 12.39 to a peak of 18.50 – HUGE HOME RUN
PANL — 48’s to 52.08
SWKS — 25.56 to 26.70

And in the DANG IT ALL Dept. we have DANG which we featured yesterday.

Over the weekend and yesterday too we said: 

4-17 Little different animal in as such that its been in a correction for months now and is looking like its got a potential double bottom coming into play.

4-19 Well that sure didn’t take long (DANG IT!).  Double bottoms — they can be your best friend when aligned with trendline breaks. What’s that say about MOTR?

This is all just in the last 24 hours, and all of this is yours for just $30 a month.

So in the meantime from here on out it gets dicey and here comes earnings season in full swing. Expect a lot of volatility in BOTH DIRECTIONS.

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Game Plan For The Week Of April 18th Thru 21st

4-18 We want to focus upon the names that are in clearly defined uptrends pulling back off highs with structure we can work with on the longside all the while managing our current holdings. In order to do that we’ll want to use weakness to pick off some names on the longside. 

The other three names that are high on our list to buy are PPO, ALLT, PANL 

4-19 And today PANL took off and followed thru from yesterday’s in the face of fear day. Yesterday you gould have had all you swing traders wanted in the 48 range and as we post its 51.50 now. For a swing trade that ALLOWS STOCKS TO COME TO THEM? its a nice trade. for those of you who over the past few years are in the process of re-inventing yourself? Well is sure looks like that was a ticket to some nice weekly income vs having to go out into the corporate world.   
 
  

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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST  

If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?  

4-19 NOTE: It’s earnings season, make sure you know when that is to occur with whatever issue you are stalking. 
 


ALLT
NEW NAME

4-18 It’s all about an upside crossover of the Pink line, its all you need to know for a longside trigger.
 

DANG

Shown above and now gets moved to the featured but not trade triggered.

 

 

ILMN

4-17 It’s all about an upside crossover of the Pink line to the upside to go long.

4-18 See the upside crossover of the pink line? Neither do we, hence nothing to talk about today.

PPO

4-17 Building out a POH and tightening up here! Thats a good thing
This name is high on our list.

4-18 Here too, nothing to talk about except to mention is dang near testing the blue support level.


PANL- POH developing.

Shown above

SDS

If the market takes off to the upside this issue gets deleted from the watch list, it also means that those who are long this issue will get stopped out. 

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SHORT SELL WATCH LIST 

NONE 

Featured But Not Trade Triggered By Us

This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.  

  Long side


 SLV

 

 And by popular demand below is GLD

4-18 You know at some point both this issue and SLV will either pullback or go sideways to consolidate this recent move. Consider yourself being made aware. No biggy at this point though.

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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends 

NOTE:  The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options.  Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying.  Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.

Options Watch List

ALL MAY Expiration Folks 

Current Holdings

AAPL  (We are now long 1 MAY 305 Call Option to open at 26.90)

As we post they are currently at 31.85, so far so good.

DE     (We are now long 1 MAY 85 Call Option to open at 9.40)

As we post they are currently at 7.25

PAY  (We are now long 2 MAY 46 Call Options to open at 7.40)

As we post they are currently at 7.00

CAT (We are now long 1 MAY 95 Call Options to open at 12.80)

As we post they are currently trading at 10.45
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CURRENT POSITIONS

Due to trouble with our email template service provider, we weren’t able to load the charts of our current positions. 

 

"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"

LONG SIDE POSITIONS

SPRD – (We are LONG 300 shares at  21.17 as of 4-18-11)

SWKS  (We are LONG 200 shares at  25.59 as of 4-18-11)

4-17 We have no problem picking off a couple of hundred shares to be there and sweat it out while in the 200 day average typically acts as suport zone.

4-18  So far so good.


DE   (We are LONG 150 shares at  93.54 as of 4-15-11)

4-18 Feelling a little guff here but right back into a support zone much like CAT below, all compliments of the market sending a message to Washington to get its act together like the rest of "We The People" who all are trying to live within our means vs spend spend spend.

 
CAT (We are LONG 150 shares at 107.35 as of 4-13-11)

4-18 Feeling a little heat here but nothing that percentagewise concerns us too much, remember this is a dow component. Not to mention we got a gap fill and are back into a support zone.
  
PAY (We are LONG 200 shares at 52.00 as of 4-12-11)


4-18 Even with todays slam in the markets this issues uptrend is still intact. We’re good with that. This is what we mean by letting your stocks tell you what to do by the action they exhibit, it helps to look at a chart trend as it allow you to stay centered.

MOBI  (We are LONG 250 shares at 12.39 as of 4-11-11)

4-19 Folks we are up (as the peak today) 
MOTR  (We are LONG 300 shares at 13.15 as of 4-13-11)


AAPL  (We are LONG 50 shares at 331.40 as of 4-11-11)

  

4-19 Earnings are due APRIL 20th (Tomorrow After The Close)

This stock is going to be a mover one way or the other. We are going to hold our common stock and our call option in this issue. But that is us, we ARE willing to take the risk here should it not perform on the reaction of earnings. If it does? Oh well. If it pops? We’ll look to lock down some gains on the call option.

If you are not willing to take the risk of holding into earnings knowing full well the net result can be a loss? Well then you know what you need to do. We are going to end up living or dying by the sword with this one Wednesday after the close.

See yesterday’s lows? That’s what buying leading stocks is all about when you buy into the face of fear and use support and resistance zones!  Heck we had folks who bought calls in the 23.60 range that are now at 32. All in one day. 

4-18 Don’t forget they have been selling the kingpin off into earnings and this 1st Qtr results will finally include the new verizon deal and IPAD 2 in the results.  Japan issues didn’t really take place till near end of quarter. That’s all good stuff for this issue going forward with earnings however none of that matters as the market is the boss and it’s not the news, it’s the reaction to the news.  IF the market needs to spin somthing positive to get it going higher this is the name that can do it.  The flipside is future impact due to Japan. In that case the 200 day is like 25 points away and 25 points on a 324.00 dollar stock is less than 10% from here. Should that occur? Expect the 200 day to get defended. Now you know ahead of time so should something like that occur your not a deer in the headlights. 

4-18 We bought a call option on this issue today all in the face of fear. Of course fast markets took precedence and had we waited a half hour? WOW we could have had all we wanted in the 321 level now in the 324 level.

VXX     (We are now LONG 300 shares at 32.58 as of 3-23-11)

4-18 One issue that does bother us is that of VXX, for the most part this issue popped at the open and off the opening print for the most part has been down ever since today and is sitting at the lows. What bothers us is with the amount of index shellacing we’ve seen today how come this issue isnt up like 2-3 points. 

4-19 We are just going to have to walk away from this issue, plain and simple. Here we are having just retaced 50% of the March lows gain to the recent peak and this issue hasn’t really responded. Look for a walking away trade trigger this afternoon.

SHORT SIDE POSITIONS



BIDU   (We are now SHORT 100 shares at 127.81 as of 3-23-11)


4-19 As you can see in the chart above we MAY have some negative structure with this issue that in itself makes us want to give it a little more time.

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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS

What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either.  All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.

We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you!  We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.

We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!).  Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.

One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.

As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.

Let’s say you have  a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position.  Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%.  On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall. 

Why?  Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.

Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS.  Now you know why we say no big deal.  

We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites.  In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty. 

We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.

WELCOME ABOARD!   


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Lastly with regards to taking any trade: 

Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.

Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:

 

1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss

Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.

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