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Well folks we got the Jobs report out of the way now its just a matter of the market carving out a low. There has been some damage done to a few sectors that have probably just topped in here, namely energy. The damage that was done to the standing room only crowd was nothing short of wicked and wont be repaired overnight. Sure they ought to lift off the lows in a snapback rally form over the next few weeks but a lot have broken major uptrends. This weekend we’ll re visit the first thrust down pattern as odds favor that is the route a lot of them are going to go.
All in all while looking at this recent swing down and upon looking at our holdings overall we are quite pleased with what our holdings are doing considering the volitility out there. We’ll take it a step at a time and work with what we have currently. We do like AAPL and NFLX BUT they just seem non committal here, still though they are building out patterns that we can work with on the longside.
On Monday morning before the open BSFT reports earnings. We personally don’t think we want to be there ahead of earnings with this one. This is a weird stock that you blink your eye its up 2-3 points and blink your eye again and its down 2-3 points. Therefore for us we will walk away and wash on the trade vs pushing for return from a news event. What you do is up to you, you have choices you know. We’d rather just not mess with it here but thats us.
Its the weekend and we’ll have more to talk about with regards to a few scenarios that MAY be coming down the road that we want to be prepared for in advance. Now lets just get to the close!
Lastly, as you scroll thru the charts we want you to observe the power of the 50 day. As in how many names have came down to the 50 day and got a lift, all excpet for that dang SLV. Just goes to show you there are no guarantees in life excpet death and raising taxes.
See you Sunday!
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INDEX ACTION AND GAME PLAN FOR THE WEEK Of 5-2 through 5-6
Over the weekend we said and still the order of the week:
"As you can see in both index charts we have a lot of structure. First off we have the current wave count of 3 waves up (abc). If we are going to complete 5 waves up (abc DE) then we still have work to do with a pullback to boot coming (a buy the dips set up?). What’s interesting is that any pullback ought to be contained to the green trend channel support and the neck line support of the head and shoulders bottom. So you see we have a floor baring any unforeseen events.
Remember this potential pullback is healthy and allows stocks to digest the recent thrust up. If we are going to continue to follow the 5 waves up script then we have one more swing higher after a buy the dips pullback. We want to be prepared for that as it’s going to set up a lot of names all in the realm of Pullbacks Off Highs (POH) with a lot of names already doing so that could go at any time.
This doesn’t mean that everything is going to pullback as it’s a market of stocks and stocks are trading to the beat of their own drum as the overall trend is up. We still have a lot of names reporting next week so that too is going to cause a lot of hoopla that we can use to our advantage.
So pace yourself and it’s all about selectively buying the dips and selling the rips as they say with POH’s being the name of the game! Well use pullbacks to start to take on positions all in the realm of 90% of this is getting in the zone and 10% is sweating it out while in the zone."
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST 5-2 AND WE STRESS WATCH
If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?
NOTE: It’s earnings season, make sure you know when that is to occur with whatever issue you are stalking.
Only The Best And Forget The Rest
NFLX
AAPL
5-6 Even with todays big gap and go because yesterday’s action built the jobs report in, these two names just can’t get up and go YET. Doesnt mean they wont, just means not yet.
Other names to take a look at in a daily chart frequency with the 50 day added are:
MAKO, SFLY, PLCM, TZOO, FTNT, RAX, SOHU, SINA and SIRO.
All of these are still in uptrends and above the 50 day that are just pulling back the excess as of this moment in time.
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
Long side
ALLT
5-2 The blue line is definite resistance, it’s going to take this issue to catch its breath and give it another attempt if it’s going to go.
PANL
5-6 For those who own this, Monday is earnings day BE AWARE.
See that tag of the 50 day and launch? Just saying.
GLD
5-6- Sure enough, hits the 50 day and?
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Options Watch List
ALL JUNE Expiration from here on out folks
ISRG
5-6 Pow, hit the 50 day and launched, not to mention the upside break of the POH line.
Current Holdings
SLV (We are now long 3 MAY 34 Calls to open at 5.10)
As we post they are currently trading at 1.25
MOBI (We are now long 3 May 12.50 call options to open at 4.60)
As we post they are currently trading at 3.70
DANG (We are now long 3 May 21 call options to open at 3.10)
As we post they are currently at 2.10
PAY (We are now long 2 MAY 46 Call Options to open at 7.40)
(We are now long 1 MAY 46 Call Options to open at 8.10 from 4-19-11)
As we post they are currently at 4.10
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"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
IRBT (We are LONG 300 shares at 32.15 as of 5-5-11)
INFA (We are LONG 200 shares at 51.44 as of 5-5-11)
5-5 This and IRBT are EXACTLY the action one wants to see after a tag of support. One can look at this type of pattern as a guy walking uphill with a yo-yo. The swings up and down are the yo-yo all the while the green trend channel is the guy walking uphill.
5-6 Too bad SLV couldnt have done that. There were a lot of names these past few days that tagged the 50 day and launched but you had to jump on them in the face of fear. BIDU and SOHU are two of them.
SLV (We are LONG 300 shares at 38.18 as of 5-4-11)
5-6 WOW yesterday this issue blew thru the 50 day like it was nothing, of course the volume to the downside was the highest ever. There is a good possibility weve just seen capitulation. So far so good today.
DANG (We are LONG 300 shares at 23.51 as of 4-28-11)
5- 6 trying to wake up here, now if only it can cross over the 50 day average we MAY be on our way!
BSFT (We are LONG 300 shares at 42.89 as of 4-18-11)
5-6 Earnings are before the open on Monday, therefore we will be walking away from this one today as mentioned at the begining of today’s update.
PAY (We are LONG 200 shares at 52.00 as of 4-12-11)
5-5 This issue now has resistance at the blue line/50 day.
5-6 So far today so good actually.
MOBI (We are Now LONG 150 shares at 12.39 as of 4-11-11)
We added to our position two days ago in the face of fear to the tune of 300 shares at 16.30
5-6 Looking decent, getting a lift. Staged a classic grand slam to the 50 day average and is lifting off of it.
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
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SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE
Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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