Ok the market is pulling back here so it’s all about digesting it’s gains folks. The
markets digest gains two ways- sideways or down.
We knew we were short term overbought going into today per our mid day update
yesterday so this should come as no suprise.
IF we are going back to a retest of the highs from a few weeks back it’s going
to be a stair step or bunny hop approach. Sure a fast and furious retest of
highs without looking back is all fine and dandy but then you set yourself up
for air pockets that can easily get filled in a blink of an eye to the downside volitility wise.
So for now we just manage our positions in a calm peaceful and centered way
all into the weekend.
Remember the bunny hop dance is two steps forward one back, two steps forward
and so on. See you this weekend.
Below are the 60 minue time frequency charts.
5-20 Notice the Full Stoh’s (Blue circle at the bottom of each chart)? Right back to oversold. thats a good thing.
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REVISED 5-19
INDEX ACTION AND GAME PLAN FOR THE WEEK Of 5-16 through 5-20
Our game plan for the REST OF WEEK is to work with what we have currently. We did our buying at EXACTLY the time when we were supposed to do it- In the face of fear at support zones.
We’ve got a nice initial lift off in a few of our names here mainly IPGP (on a tear the last few days) and INFA is almost there too. The LULU, PLCM,AAPL,CAT are also doing ok here too.
So for now given its options expiration and there are 2:1 puts to calls out there we’ll look for a continued upward bias and more of a market of stocks than anything else till into the weekend. After all, 3 days ago all of those who were convinced we were going to heck in a handbasket by buying puts and shorting AFTER we already have fallen (this is the fast highly emotional trade by the seat of theyre pants money by the way) are the ones who are feeling the most pain in here. Welcome to the world of opposites right?
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Short Side Coming Attractions
5-17 There is a good possibility that the bulk of this list disappears in the next day or so. Why? NONE for the most part are anywhere near any sort of low risk entry point for shorting that we feel confident with. THAT ought to tell you something about the market too here.
And that is exactly why you see no short side issues currently on the watch list.
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?
Only The Best And Forget The Rest
5-20 We’ve got a few names setting up so check back this weekend, remember the name of the game is Pullback Off Highs (POH) as they are the only pattern you’ll ever need.
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
Long side
SFLY
5-19 Ok now I’ll play who I warn against being and thats the emotional trader. I’m ticked! I missed this one! BUT its also times like these that I remind myself that these are the problems I want to have.
5-18 Wasnt exactly a POH crossover as it was more of a grand slam to the 50 day average and pow!
OXY
5-19 I suppose one could take some of this. Im just content with where we are currently with our positions.
GLD
5-20 Well there ya have it, another case of the 50 day average tending to become a support level in order to bounce off of.
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Options Watch List
ALL JUNE Expiration from here on out folks
Current Holdings
CAT (We are now long 2 JUNE 95 call options to open at 11.10)
As we post they are currently at 10.65
AAPL (We are now long 1 JUNE 320 call option to open at 22.30)
As we post they are currently at 21.45
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"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
LULU (We are LONG 150 shares at 94.29 as of 5-17-11)
5-20 coming back from the dead after pulling back this morning when it was down 2 points.
5-18 Repeat after me- Pullback Off Highs (POH’s) are the only pattern I ever need to know
Hey, 94 to almost 98 in a day or so is nothing to sneeze at. About the only thing one could have done better was to buy some calls- DOH!
IPGP (We are LONG 200 shares at 63.94 as of 5-17-11)
5-20 speaking of the Bunny Hop, sure looks like the energizer bunny if you ask us. Currently up 2.00 to 71.
5-18 Repeat after me- Pullback Off Highs (POH’s) are the only pattern I ever need to know
PLCM (We are LONG 200 shares at 54.65 as of 5-17-11)
5-20 Pulling back but not a big deal as its still above the 50 day and in a clearly defined uptrend as shown by the green line. Say dont we typically buy as thay tag the 50 day?
AAPL (We are LONG 50 shares at 338.15 as of 5-5-11)
5-20 Much like the market here today so really no big deal.
5-16 Just an observation, look at all the lows on this stock the last 4-5 months, notice something? They all happened to be of the spike low variety. We made our bed now we have to sleep in it. Not a problem when you use trade size position risk management.
CAT (We are LONG 150 shares at 105.15 as of 5-5-11)
5-20 As the Dow goes so goes CAT.
5-17 As we talked about yesterday, this is a zone. We are down a whopping 2.5% in this issue so at this point seeing as how the indexes are saying what they are saying we will leave it alone just like the last time when we bought at 107, and it went to 103 on us then shot right up to 115 and we walked away. Consider this a zone.
IRBT (We are LONG 300 shares at 32.15 as of 5-5-11)
5-18 Bouncing off the lows with the markets, lets see if we can go from the 3rd best outcome of a small loss to a wash. Then if we get to wash mode we’ll make a decision as to whether we want to hold for a gain outcome.
INFA (We are LONG 200 shares at 51.44 as of 5-5-11)
5-20 Consolidating at the highs currently without giving it up to the downside is always a positive.
5-18 Nice list off here, who knows we might just get to a retest of the recent highs before we know it.
5-17 Any break of the blue line and we stop out of this issue non the worse for wear.
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
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SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE
Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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