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"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Are Exhibiting"
Case in point, see how the indexes are at or near the recent lows yet names like IPGP, LULU and one could even say INFA have sprung back and are at or near they’re highs? THAT is exactly the type of action one wants to see.
When one looks at our current holdings and our longside watch list names we really have nothing to be concerned about. They all look decent all because we employed a" Letting them tell us what to do" vs what others are crowing about on TV or even the end of the world. Say that brings up an interesting question with regards to the end of the world as we know it stuff from the weekend. If you bet on Armeggedon how do you cash in? I mean whats the reward. Fools
While on the subject of that check out the USD chart.
The correlation has been dollar up all asset classes down and vice versa. Lot of talk on the net these days about the dollar taking off and all asset classes are going to be in deep do do which falls in line wwith the end of the world for those who like to taake a sensationalist attitude. I get that BUT look at the big picture USD chart above. Sure its been going up and the market has been going down (In an orderly fashion I might add) however see what I see? One big red downtrend resistance line complete with the full stoh’s being overbought.
Given what we are seeing with regards to our holdings and watch list names we hope you’ve all enjoyed what the power of NOT REACTING can do for you during uncertain and volitile times.
Keep in mind that how you’ve been handling the last few weeks is much better indicator of success than when the wind is at your back during strong uptrending markets, heck everyone can do that. Its when markets go thru what they’ve been going thru that separates the women and men from the girls and boys. So ask yourself at this moment in time. How have YOU been managing the turbulence. Thats the real key to success, not what’s hot today or tommorrow. Thats fast money and chasing performance thinking and WILL get you in trouble in the future mark our words.
Many thanks to all who have emailed us about doing our best to keep you all centered but honestly? Its YOU who should be thanking yourselves as lets face it this has beeen a difficult market to trade in. BUT if you can handle these markets? Well then you can handle just about anything. We like to think a big part of our handling turbulence is all about trade size risk management by never biting off more than one can chew and not chasing stocks or performance with the stock of the week or macro trend of the century.
We’ll see, we arent out of the woods just yet but we are fine with what we are seeing with what we are watching/have. Sure there has been a lot of damage done out there to a lot of leading stocks and that wont be repaired overnight. Just look at FFIV and RVBD those names are still in corrections and need to build all new bases if they are going to re-assert theyre leadership if at all. that can take months.
As far as the indexes are concerned they need to stabilize in here and that means a little chewing around down here would be a good thing.
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Short Side Coming Attractions
With the indexes near support, an upward bias holiday week pending and new long side set-ups debuting on our watch list, the long side is our focus this week.
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?
Only The Best And Forget The Rest
We have a few new names setting up. Remember the name of the game is Pullback Off Highs (POH) as they are the only pattern you’ll ever need.
All the conditions are ripe here — stohcastics oversold (blue circle) and near support at the blue line. A break above the pink line triggers a long side trade.
ILMN
5-24 A tag of the 50 day and we’ll have to consider taking a piece of this one just because. Heck even in here one could say its in the zone of you will. Sure beats the traditional buying breakouts now doesnt it. Its like we said, its all about alternative entry points for us.
Let’s keep an eye on it as it nears support at the bottom of the upward trend channel (green line).
ABV
We’d prefer to see it continue to pullback towards support at the blue line/50-day.
ACOM
May also still have some work to do to get closer to the 50-day and the full stohcastics closer to oversold territory.
5-24 With all of the above you can see they are all still in Pullback Off Highs (POH) mode hence there is nothing to do but watch for the time being.
All look very orderly much like our current holdings and one could even say the indexes to a degree.
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
Long side
OXY
5-24 Yesterday’s note pretty well sum it up.
5-23 All the conditions are ripe here. At support and well oversold
GLD
Bounced off of the green trend line.
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Options Watch List
ALL JUNE Expiration from here on out folks
Current Holdings
CAT (We are now long 2 JUNE 95 call options to open at 11.10)
As we post they are currently at 7.65
AAPL (We are now long 1 JUNE 320 call option to open at 22.30)
As we post they are currently at 16.95
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"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
LULU (We are LONG 150 shares at 94.29 as of 5-17-11)
IPGP (We are LONG 200 shares at 63.94 as of 5-17-11)
5-23 Pulling back with indexes today, uptrend still intact. We may though consider a retest of friday’s highs as a walk away and lock gains zone though.
PLCM (We are LONG 200 shares at 54.65 as of 5-17-11)
Retesting support at the blue line and 50-day with the stohcastics well oversold.
AAPL (We are LONG 50 shares at 338.15 as of 5-5-11)
5-24 Look close, the last week or so looks like a potential retest of recent lows. It COULD be one of those bacck to the scene of the crime retests.
Call it "In the Zone" Again.
CAT (We are LONG 150 shares at 105.15 as of 5-5-11)
5-24 Market chewing around here so does cat.
5-23 Well much like the Dow so goes CAT. See the 5 waves down (abcde) on positive RS divergence by a smidge? So do we really want to walk away here? With 5 waves down showing? With a lousy 3/10’s of a loss impact to the whole virtual portfolio compliments of trade size risk management or? Just remember gaps work both ways, big gaps up this goes up with it.
INFA (We are LONG 200 shares at 51.44 as of 5-5-11)
5-24 Well at this point this issue is still intact. There is a good possibility we’ll walk away on strength though in the near future, a retest of the highs from friday? Sure.
5-22 At resistance, but still a few points away from trend channel resistance. Let’s see if we can get another few points on this issue before we lock in our gains.
5-24 So all in all per our comments at the begining of this update and per the "Let your stocks tell you what to do by the action they exhibit" comment do we really at this point have anything to be concerned about yet? Nope its now starting to turn into more of a market of stocks and issues trading to the beat of they’re own drum, at least our holdings are.
Gee if they (relative to the indexes) can continue to hold up and consolidate wonder what happens if the markets take off into the holiday.
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
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SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE
Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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