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First a housekeeping apology. In this mornings "Heat Of The Moment" trade trigger alerts action. In our rush to make sure things were timely for you in order to take action promptly (good thing too) we had some errors. With the ILMN trade alert we forgot to put in the amount of call options we were buying. That should be 2 calls as we like to use trade size risk management and 1-2 call options as position size is the norm around here.
In the SFLY trade alert we inadvertantly forgot to take out the very bottom verbiage from the cat alert (and the date was wrong too) We apologize for the fast market action all in the name of keeping you in the moment.
All week and for the last two weeks we’ve been hearing this, hearing that, all bad. We’ve talked about the importance of not listening to that but listening to the charts and we all know why now. In addition to that what is always on my mind is that of "Trade What We See, Not think, Hear Or Fear" for the last two weeks the bulk of what we have been highlighting are names with clearly defined positive longside structure.
We stuck to our knitting, we didnt react negatively to what was and still is being said about the markets, we simply just traded our plan and planned our trades all the while being mindfull of what our current holdings were doing and the indexes as well. And today we are having a rip roaring day with almost all of our current holdings firing on all cyclinders.
PLCM – up 2.78
IPGP – up 1.80
INFA – up .84
CAT – up 1.75
AAPL – up 4.00
And the loan weak sister today is LULU she just doesnt want to play ball today, sorry to disappoint you all. Not a big deal as its been consolidating nicely in here relative to what the markets have been doing over the last week.
From here on out things could get slow as we go into the "Memorial Day " holiday here in the states. typically into most holiday’s there is an upward bias and this may be the start of it. Whether this is just a dead cat bounce or not nobody knows. We’ll just take it a step at a time around here.
As for the indexes? In the micro short term one minute charts every index undercut the lows in classic trap door open form. For those who don’t know what a trap door is that is when the markets open and sell off fast then the nervous nellie highly emotional money (after days of getting theyre emotions pounded) caves in. Of course the market waits for people like this, its really how it makes its living if you ask us. It robs from the stupid and give to the knowledgable. Arent you all glad we’re all knowledgeable around here?
Remember the market more often than not always has to shake the tree to get rid of weak holders before it can move higher. See how dark the chart above lows are here? Thats called for every seller there is a buyer sucking up the supply. If they can’t suck up the supply from the weak holders they force they’re emotional hand with trap doors or shall we say they pull the rug out from under them in order to get them to flinch.
We saw that with numerous names today especially in ILMN. Below is the one minute chart showing that then the daily.
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Short Side Coming Attractions
NONE and for good reason
With the indexes near support, an upward bias holiday week pending and new long side set-ups debuting on our watch list, the long side is our focus this week.
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST If I were to put money to work here. Where do I put it?
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
Remember the name of the game is Pullback Off Highs (POH) as they are the only pattern you’ll ever need.
5-25 And there you go, an upside crossover of the pink line, nnow all it needs to do is bust thru the 50 day average.
5-24 All the conditions are ripe here — stohcastics oversold (blue circle) and near support at the blue line. A break above the pink line triggers a long side trade.
ABV
5-25 Much like ARBA above this issue is trying to do the same thing.
5-24We’d prefer to see it continue to pullback towards support at the blue line/50-day.
ACOM
5-25 Yesterday we said:
May also still have some work to do to get closer to the 50-day and the full stohcastics closer to oversold territory.
And there you have it, today’s trap door to near the 50 day was all she wrote.
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
Long side
OXY
5-24 Yesterday’s note pretty well sum it up.
5-23 All the conditions are ripe here. At support and well oversold
GLD
Bounced off of the green trend line.
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Options Watch List
ALL JUNE Expiration from here on out folks
Current Holdings
ILMN (We are now long 2 JUNE 65 call options to open at 6.30)
As we post they are currently at 7.40
SFLY (We are now long 2 JUNE50 call options to open at 5.40)
As we post they are currently at 6.40
CAT (We are now long 2 JUNE 95 call options to open at 11.10)
As we post they are currently at 9.05
AAPL (We are now long 1 JUNE 320 call option to open at 22.30)
As we post they are currently at 18.70
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Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
ILMN (We are LONG 200 shares at 70.59 as of 5-25-11)
Shown above
SFLY (We are LONG 200 shares at 54.24 as of 5-25-11)
5-25 thus far you gotta love it! nice reaction off the 50 day and away she goes with us already beiing up 1 point right out of the gate. Same goes for ILMN.
LULU (We are LONG 150 shares at 94.29 as of 5-17-11)
IPGP (We are LONG 200 shares at 63.94 as of 5-17-11)
5-23 Pulling back with indexes today, uptrend still intact. We may though consider a retest of friday’s highs as a walk away and lock gains zone though.
PLCM (We are LONG 200 shares at 54.65 as of 5-17-11)
5-23 Retesting support at the blue line and 50-day with the stohcastics well oversold.
AAPL (We are LONG 50 shares at 338.15 as of 5-5-11)
5-24 Look close, the last week or so looks like a potential retest of recent lows. It COULD be one of those back to the scene of the crime retests.
Call it "In the Zone" Again.
CAT (We are LONG 150 shares at 105.15 as of 5-5-11)
5-25 Like we’ve said support levels are a "Zone"
INFA (We are LONG 200 shares at 51.44 as of 5-5-11)
5-24 Well at this point this issue is still intact. There is a good possibility we’ll walk away on strength though in the near future, a retest of the highs from friday? Sure.
5-22 At resistance, but still a few points away from trend channel resistance. Let’s see if we can get another few points on this issue before we lock in our gains.
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
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SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE
Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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