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"BACK TO THE SCENE OF THE CRIME"
Yesterday’s gap up took the full stoh’s back up into overbought territory so you knew some sort of pullback was in order so as to reset the full stoh’s back to oversold territory (60 minute charts). Today’s action also filled the gap from yesterday and as we post then some.
Over the weekend we talked about 4’s and 5’s. We’ve laid out two scenarios and even with today’s back to the scene of the crime moves in the market that stance has not changed.
Its all about getting thru the 5th wave (could yesterday’s gap and go been the 4th wave? Sure) then get to the summer rally all into reduced expectations for earnings season.
Speaking of reduced expectations for earnings season? Typically the game when reducing is to reduce so much that no matter what everyone beats expecations which in turn creates a rally. We’ve all seen it all too many times to know this is what wall st. has a habit of doing, we’ll see.
Call it lowering the bar so no matter what the weakest athlete can clear the hurdle. That’s what’s coming and that’s the forward thinking of what’s nearby. Its all about getting to that time frame .
Lastly, they say the fastest way to find out who YOU are is to start trading, the market gives you immediate feedback (no kidding hey?).
In good market times the wind is at your back so you really don’t find out what YOU are made of. In sloppy and bad market times? THAT is really when you find out who you are. Come to think of it? Sounds like life if you ask us.
Heck ask any top athlete, celebrity, musician etc. they will ALL tell YOU it wasnt easy being the best and climbing that mountain I assure you but thats what it takes like it or not.
The song that comes to mind is a country song by Lonestar called "Mountains"
"God Gave Us Mountains So We Can Learn How To Climb"
Walking is easy when the road is flat folks. Do yourself a favor and go to Youtube and listen to the video then ask yourself who you are.
So who are YOU, only YOU can answer this. You want to be the best YOU that YOU can be? Then you better learn how to handle sloppy rough times. Do it now or do it later be it in the market or in life as I assure you will have to learn it at some point in your life. In the markets arent you glad we got 90% of this out of the way over the last 6 weeks?
The Sun is always darkest just before dawn. Watch the 200 day averages on the indexes
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Short Side Coming Attractions
TPX
6-8 Until we see some sort of snapback rally for shorting purposes there is nothing to talk about with this one.
This issue as you can see needs some time as in chart time to develop the pattern
We talk about buy the dips and sell the rips around here right? Well in this case we get a rip we’ll consider selling that rip as in short selling it. Wait for the bounce.
SLV
6-8 for us until we see what a retest of the 50-day average blue line looks like there is nothing to talk about for shorting purposes.
6-12 Notice how small this list is getting? That ought to tell you something after 6 down weeks in the indexes. This is how the market talks to us via chart patterns.
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
Remember the name of the game is Pullback Off Highs (POH) as it’s the only pattern you’ll ever need.
IPGP
6-15 Six days of nowhere. Same with CTXS below
CTXS
NEW NAME
NFLX
NEW NAME
6-13 Sure would have liked to see some sort of tag of the blue line/50 here. For us? That is what its going to take to get me interested on the longside.
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
LONG SIDE
GLD
6-8 Approaching resistance in red
6-6 It ought to be interesting to see what happens at the red resistance line over the next day or so should it get tagged. Ahhhh Hmmmmm Notice the Negative RSI Divergence?
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
OPTIONS- Your best friend and worst enemy
Let’s talk about options for a moment. First off this is a big universe with a lot of advanced strategies and terms like theta, delta , straddles, butterflies and the whole gambit. For the purposes of this conversation we’ll keep it real simple and not try to get to deep.
We’ll approach it from simple buy puts (short side) buy calls (long side). The first thing I want to mention is that options attract the fast money crowd in hopes of turning 500 into 10,000 overnight. This is also the get rich quick crowd. And more often than not these type of people get broke faster than they get rich. Please don’t be one of them as greed kills.
Time and time again we hear from people who like to trade options, and time and time again we hear the horror stories too. When we hear the horror stories nine times out of ten we can guess as to why their option went to zero. Nine times out of ten it was because they bought out of the money options or at the money options. This is the reason why 80% of those who do options lose money by the way.
Sure there are folks who use out of the monies and at the monies but those are experienced traders that know the ins outs ups and downs.
You see the trick is to NOT pay for time. You want as close to a point for point move as possible with the stock because there is nothing worse than seeing your stock move yet your option does nothing or very little, know the feeling?
So for All About Trends we only want to look at IN THE MONEY CALLS OR PUTS and we DO NOT WANT TO PAY FOR TIME, sure they cost more BUT we want to be as close as possible to being able to see a point for point move with the stock.
We hate paying for time. We want true value without the time. We’re not saying our way is any better than others, we’re just saying it’s what works for us.
Now let’s touch upon how we would build a virtual portfolio dedicated to options and how to make it a piece of your overall virtual portfolio via allocation. Keep in mind this is more geared towards beginners so you advanced people might be bored with it but then again it never hurts to revisit the basics every now and then.
At All About Trends Trends we talk a lot about never biting off more than you can chew and trade size position management. We do that for a reason, we do it so as to when Murphy’s law shows up it never devastates us or blows us up. Typically we try to stay within a 5-7% position size when we do a trade. The same thing goes for options. If we were to start a virtual portfolio of options or shall we say allocate a portion of our overall virtual portfolio to options the way we would look at it is the following:
For example, let’s say the total value of your virtual portfolio is $100,000. The most we’d consider allocating towards an options strategy is 10% of the whole virtual portfolio. In this case $10,000. So now you’d have a $10,000 option virtual portfolio to work with. Now let’s say that you are the worst trader on the planet (we doubt that!) and you lose the whole option virtual portfolio, what’s the risk to the total value of the overall virtual portfolio? 10% in which case you live to play another day. Now let’s touch upon that $10,000 you allocated toward options. Let’s reduce the risk even further (and we haven’t even talked about what stocks to trade yet). Let’s take that $10,000 and split it up into no more than 10% ($1,000) can be allocated to anyone position as a guide. (Sometimes 1000 can get you 3-4 contracts you know). Now let’s say that one of those positions goes bust (and they will! and sometimes more than one at the same time we assure you.) What is the total impact to the overall options virtual portfolio? 10% right?
Now let’s take that a step further. What’s the total impact to the overall investment virtual portfolio of 100,000? 1% – that’s right 1 measly percent. When it comes to options you need to employ some sort of virtual portfolio risk management structure parameters as this way you can get in trouble and you don’t lose sleep – you just have a bad day that’s all.
As for getting rich overnight? Forget about it. That’s just a marketing ploy. As for taking 50,000 and turning it into millions? Ain’t happening overnight but it sure sounds good doesn’t it? And that is why people bite on those marketing ploys.
As for time? We never go out months. As a swing trader we’re in positions for only a couple of weeks best case so why pay for the time to go out further in time when you don’t have to. When the stock moves whether it’s right away or not they sure seem to suck that time out of you just as fast anyway right?
Typically we’ll look at the front month (current month) or the next month but not months. When we say front month if options expiration is a week or sometimes even two weeks away we’ll look out to the next month and not the current. While time is our enemy in most cases, in this case it’s your friend. It’s just that you don’t want to pay for it.
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Options Watch List — Nothing new at this point
Current Holdings
IBM (We are now long 2 JUNE 160 call options to open at 7.30)
As we post they are currently trading at 2.15
ILMN (We are now long 2 JUNE 65 call options to open at 6.30)
As we post they are currently at 5.90
SFLY (We are now long 2 JUNE 50 call options to open at 5.40)
As we post they are currently are .80
CAT (We are now long 2 JUNE 95 call options to open at 11.10)
As we post they are currently at 1.85
AAPL (We are now long 1 JUNE 320 call option to open at 22.30)
As we post they are currently at 7.55
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Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
INFA (We are LONG 200 shares at 55.11 as of 6-9-11)
6-15 We own it at 55.11 and here it is at 53.30 so no big deal here yet.
MAKO (We are LONG 300 shares at 29.52 as of 6-9-11)
ILMN (We are LONG 200 shares at 70.59 as of 5-25-11)
SFLY (We are LONG 200 shares at 54.24 as of 5-25-11)
6-15 Support is holding and here we are going on 3 days of that.
AAPL (We are LONG 50 shares at 338.15 as of 5-5-11)
6-15 SUPPORT SUPPORT SUPPORT, and the 200 day average. That is all there is to it.
6-12 (326.96) Well there you have it, basically right to the 200 day support zone. So should we short sell this issue here? Should we get emotional and sell our position right here? Not me. Worst case technically is a trap door (baring an unforeseen over which you have no control over anyway) is a quick tag of that 320 level in April. This issue looks good in here for those who are interested in picking off the kingpin without having to chase it and in the face of fear.
6-8 (332.80) Those who are more investors than they are traders this issue is basically in the zone per the notes in the chart. If you are one who doesnt mind an issue flip flopping around a bit then you are in the zone but take your time as we still have to get thru those wicked closes.
CAT (We are LONG 150 shares at 105.15 as of 5-5-11)
6-13 This issue looks so ugly here that if I didn’t own it I’d probably consider buying it here.
6-12 Super ugly here and selling is after the fact. Keep in mind when they run the dow this is one name they are going to come looking for fast.
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
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SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE
Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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