|
Can you say " Into The End Of The Quarter? Can you say window dressing?
Just look at NFLX,CMG,AMZN,AAPL,BIDU just to name a few the last few days. Know what they all have in common? They are all kingpins in the market and when the market moves they are the first to go. They are also heavily weighted names in the indexes.
What may be amazing to a lot of you is that of 5 days ago, yes thats it, 5 lousy days ago everyone was scared out of they’re minds about the markets now?
Everyone is happy as can be as many names that we’ve featured here this past month are on a tear. All the while the market is in a correction.
As far as today’s CONSUMER CONFIDENCE number? It was down as you all already know. So why is the market up? Simple "End Of Quarter" and "Into The Holiday" trumps that stupid indicator. Keep in mind that the consumer confidence number is a poll of 500 (yes you heard me right, 500 lousy people) random people and what they think of the economy. Real nice broad based barometer huh? Keep in mind this indicator is easy to judge as to whether the number will be up or down. Market up, consumer confidence up, market down, consumer confidence down. The other thing about this data point is the word CONFIDENCE. What is that word? Why an emotional state of course, so now you know why its up when market is up, peoples confidence is up. In our world its just a gauge that proves emotional herding mentalities of sheeple.
So all in all to us? Who cares show us the charts! They are what matters anyway as we’ve all seen.
In the 60 minute index charts we are in an overbought zone so tread lightly here on the longside and be selective. We bought one stock this morning and that is being selective vs buying this and that after they have already moved for the last 3-4 days.
Keep in mind there is a little resistance level in the 2735 zone which are the lows of wave 1. As you can see in a very short period of time we have just ran from 2600 to 2715 or 115 points so your already a bit late to the party aside from being selective. In the indexes you are definately late to the party. Do we need to tell you all where and what the emotional state of things the prime entry was? I didnt think so. But for those new here? It was the in the face of emotional fear lows at 2600.
Even the daily charts show us getting into the Full stohcastics overbought zone. when you have two different time frequencies saying the same thing? It sure means a high risk zone is approaching for a turn. This means you definately don’t want to be going long the indexes here.
Below is a name that MAY be in the process of carving out the bottom of a cup basing structure that we’ll want to monitor over the next few weeks to see if it stages first a POH then a break to the upside. We have a bunch more that are starting to show this and will bring them front and center as they start building out more. All are longside coming attractions. Here’s the first one.
Ahhhhhmmmm, notice the tag of the 200 day average and POW? A POH to develop from here is what I need to see to make me take a longside trade by the way.
Make sure you scroll down to the particular sections to see them. Also the red bold print in the short side coming attractions is a very strong possibility in the days ahead as to what we can expect with regards to the wave structure for those who follow elliott wave that is. The more I also look at things the more I say a 5th wave will end up trunicating (assuming we still get one) which will also show up as a double bottom. Watch for it to occur after the holiday.
The rest of you? Just pay attention to basic technical analysis, (Support, Resistance, trendlines and the like) and youll be fine.
Lastly also make sure you read the BLUE bold print at the bottom of the Short side coming Attractions section. Good education content for future reference.
================================================================
Short Side Coming Attractions
6-27-11
Note: In the short term all of the following names are in (for the most part) clearly defined downtrend channels that are pulling back off lows (POL) which are also all showing 4 waves completed out of 5 OF THE WAVE 1 TO THE DOWNSIDE.
After the 5 wave down sequence of Wave 1 completes itself its all about 3 waves up of wave 2 (which is our summer rally) then?
In the short term: With each of them it’s all about a downside break of the pink line for those who feel the need to trade on the short side.
Most likely we wont see that till AFTER the Holiday
6-26-11
If it wasn’t for the pre-holiday trade and end of quarter pump potential we’d be all over these names on the short side.
These same names upon completion of 5 waves down, which also may end up being double bottoms when all said and done, are names that we will also want to go long on AFTER a potential completion of the 5th wave. Why? Because after 5 waves down the next sequence is 3 waves up (summer rally).
This also means that should we see a 5th wave in these names, a double bottom occur over the next few days or weeks we also want to be all over them on the long side. Odds favor it will be in the face of general market fear should it occur.
But for now it’s all about a break to the downside in the pink lines shown below in the charts
RAX
NEW NAME
6-28 See that break of the pink line to the downside?Neither do I , hence nothing to talk about.
TIBX
6-28 See that break of the pink line to the downside?Neither do I , hence nothing to talk about.
BIDU
6-28 See that break of the pink line to the downside?Neither do I , hence nothing to talk about.
DECK
6-28 See that break of the pink line to the downside?Neither do I , hence nothing to talk about.
ALTR
6-28 See that break of the pink line to the downside?Neither do I , hence nothing to talk about.
TZOO
6-28 See that break of the pink line to the downside?Neither do I , hence nothing to talk about.
6-27 With all of the above its all about a downside break of the Pink Lines or a sell short in the face of fear while the market is bouncing (friday perhaps? into the holiday on a pop at the open? if we get one that is, just a thought). Make sense?
If we buy on the longside in the face of fear while the market is dropping isnt shorting in the face of fear the same thing only flipped over on market strength? again, Welcome to the world of opposites.
6-27 BIG OBSERVATION FOR ALL OF YOU: Look at the lows on everyone of these charts above (and actually below for that matter too) Notice the lows were all of the "In The Face Of Fear" Variety? THAT WAS the most opportune time to step up to the plate.
Of course it meant buying a falling knife BUT we had 3rd wave down structure present and the Full Stoh’s indicator deeply oversold not to mention the indexes were sitting at a key support level too not to mention that a fair amount of them tagged the 200 day average. All of which told you you were "In the Zone" for a move higher in the coming days.
NOTE: Notice with all of the above they all pretty much mimic that of the index charts?
TPX
==========================================================
LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
Remember the name of the game is Pullback Off Highs (POH) as it’s the only pattern you’ll ever need.
PRGO
NEW NAME
6-28 Tread lightly as this issue could still retest the recent lows next week.
ARW
NEW NAME
6-27 All in all I’ve got nothing bad to say about this isue here. In fact one could start to consider building some longside exposure all in the realm of "Its A Market Of Stocks" with SOME individual names tading to the beat of they’re own drum.
=====================================================
FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
LONG SIDE
APKT
NFLX
GLD
6-24 See the mini double top around 152ish? This issue goes from not exactly healthy to outright sick.
6-23 Isn’t exactly looking healthy here now is it.
=====================================================
All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
Over the weekend we posted an article in this space entitled:
OPTIONS- Your best friend and worst enemy
That article is at the bottom of this newsletter for reference anytime you need it.
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Options Watch List – All JULY call options
NONE Currently but this can change real fast and will change real fast over the next few days.
=======================================================
Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
NXPI (We are now LONG 300 shares at 24.74 as of 6-28-11)
6-28 Now one of three things are going to happen for us here as we are now at the mercy of the market. We are either going to get a gain, wash or loss. heck a 3 point pop is worth 900.00 by the way. Heres to it!
What is different about this issue vs most other names shown on these pages is that today is the first up day vs many others up 5 days in a row.
MAKO (We are LONG 300 shares at 29.52 as of 6-9-11)
6-2 Stubborn at the highs of today like a few days ago. Another day like today? Sure we have no problem locking some gains. In fact we’ll probably walk away here too before the holiday and end of quarter as the indexes are telling us we are getting borderline frothy in the sense of too far too fast.
SFLY (We are LONG 200 shares at 54.24 as of 5-25-11)
6-28 This issue too is getting overbought in the holiday, here too we’ll want to lock our gains before the weekend/end of quarter. Another day like today would be nice.
6-21 An excellent example of feeling the fear and sweating with it vs caving in to it in the 48 range. We’ve told you for days the markets were washed out. Aren’t you glad you did not do what chicken little was doing over the last week? He got fried in the 48 range and we are now 4 points higher than where he was served up for lunch.
AAPL (We are LONG 50 shares at 338.15 as of 5-5-11)
6-28 Given what the indexes are saying, of which this is a big componant of we are probably going to walk away on our 50 shares before the holiday.
The high of the day is 336.70 so if this issue can’t bust thru that in the next day or so we’ll want to watch that number to walk away on on any furthr strength.
=============================================================
To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
================================================
Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
======================================================
OPTIONS- Your best friend and worst enemy
Let’s talk about options for a moment. First off this is a big universe with a lot of advanced strategies and terms like theta, delta , straddles, butterflies and the whole gambit. For the purposes of this conversation we’ll keep it real simple and not try to get to deep.
We’ll approach it from simple buy puts (short side) buy calls (long side). The first thing I want to mention is that options attract the fast money crowd in hopes of turning 500 into 10,000 overnight. This is also the get rich quick crowd. And more often than not these type of people get broke faster than they get rich. Please don’t be one of them as greed kills.
Time and time again we hear from people who like to trade options, and time and time again we hear the horror stories too. When we hear the horror stories nine times out of ten we can guess as to why their option went to zero. Nine times out of ten it was because they bought out of the money options or at the money options. This is the reason why 80% of those who do options lose money by the way.
Sure there are folks who use out of the monies and at the monies but those are experienced traders that know the ins outs ups and downs.
You see the trick is to NOT pay for time. You want as close to a point for point move as possible with the stock because there is nothing worse than seeing your stock move yet your option does nothing or very little, know the feeling?
So for All About Trends we only want to look at IN THE MONEY CALLS OR PUTS and we DO NOT WANT TO PAY FOR TIME, sure they cost more BUT we want to be as close as possible to being able to see a point for point move with the stock.
We hate paying for time. We want true value without the time. We’re not saying our way is any better than others, we’re just saying it’s what works for us.
Now let’s touch upon how we would build a virtual portfolio dedicated to options and how to make it a piece of your overall virtual portfolio via allocation. Keep in mind this is more geared towards beginners so you advanced people might be bored with it but then again it never hurts to revisit the basics every now and then.
At All About Trends Trends we talk a lot about never biting off more than you can chew and trade size position management. We do that for a reason, we do it so as to when Murphy’s law shows up it never devastates us or blows us up. Typically we try to stay within a 5-7% position size when we do a trade. The same thing goes for options. If we were to start a virtual portfolio of options or shall we say allocate a portion of our overall virtual portfolio to options the way we would look at it is the following:
For example, let’s say the total value of your virtual portfolio is $100,000. The most we’d consider allocating towards an options strategy is 10% of the whole virtual portfolio. In this case $10,000. So now you’d have a $10,000 option virtual portfolio to work with. Now let’s say that you are the worst trader on the planet (we doubt that!) and you lose the whole option virtual portfolio, what’s the risk to the total value of the overall virtual portfolio? 10% in which case you live to play another day. Now let’s touch upon that $10,000 you allocated toward options. Let’s reduce the risk even further (and we haven’t even talked about what stocks to trade yet). Let’s take that $10,000 and split it up into no more than 10% ($1,000) can be allocated to anyone position as a guide. (Sometimes 1000 can get you 3-4 contracts you know). Now let’s say that one of those positions goes bust (and they will! and sometimes more than one at the same time we assure you.) What is the total impact to the overall options virtual portfolio? 10% right?
Now let’s take that a step further. What’s the total impact to the overall investment virtual portfolio of 100,000? 1% – that’s right 1 measly percent. When it comes to options you need to employ some sort of virtual portfolio risk management structure parameters as this way you can get in trouble and you don’t lose sleep – you just have a bad day that’s all.
As for getting rich overnight? Forget about it. That’s just a marketing ploy. As for taking 50,000 and turning it into millions? Ain’t happening overnight but it sure sounds good doesn’t it? And that is why people bite on those marketing ploys.
As for time? We never go out months. As a swing trader we’re in positions for only a couple of weeks best case so why pay for the time to go out further in time when you don’t have to. When the stock moves whether it’s right away or not they sure seem to suck that time out of you just as fast anyway right?
Typically we’ll look at the front month (current month) or the next month but not months. When we say front month if options expiration is a week or sometimes even two weeks away we’ll look out to the next month and not the current. While time is our enemy in most cases, in this case it’s your friend. It’s just that you don’t want to pay for it
============================================================
SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE
Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
|
