HOUSEKEEPING: Due to not much happening from here on out for the rest of the day and we are all due for a well deserved break today’s mid day update will be the Weekend Newsletter. There will be no newsletter on Sunday and the markets are closed on Monday here in the states. We will be using the time to step back and really look at whats going on in the markets from this point forward and come Tuesday I’m sure we’ll have have a lot to say.
Gosh folks, we knew we were going to have an upward bias into the quarter end but this? As one of our subscribers said this morning:
Sure looks like its a blow off run.
I tend to agree. There is nothing out there that I am comfortable with on the longside here and that tells me to stay away. Do yourself a favor, look at a ton of charts out there, especially leader type of names and look for the low risk entry points which are Pullback Off Highs (POH) see any or many?
Not me, nothing I’d feel comfortable with at this juncture. Its like O’Neil said, buying right solves half you’re selling problems. That said are you going to buy a SODA right here? A BIDU right here? A KSU right here? A AMZN right here?
Knowing where they were 5 days ago? funny thing about markets, you never know just how far the pendulum will swing. What we really need to see is what happens next week when we don’t have the end of quarter and into the holiday to contend with.
What is also kicking in today is an indicator that or rather an observation that I’ve seen over the years around here that never fails, I just don’t know how to measure it. You see about 10+ years ago I used to subscribe to an elliott wave type of site and one of the things he would always comment on when we neared a turning point (remember its a zone) was what he’d say was "The Hate Mail" indicator.
Keep in mind that I must admit we rarely get that type of email around here and when we do it was usually someone who did not employ trade size risk management. To me that speaks volumes about our subscriber base. It tells me we are doing a decent job at educating folks as to the power of emotional states and being in control of them and OH Why we do not chase buses. For that we thank you! In fact to ALL who have emailed us today about how killer this move up has been for them that too we thank you!
Here is how that indicator worked for him. You see he knew when we were near a turn not only because of what the techical indicators were saying but also because the emotional money subscribers would light up screaming about how can he not be jumping in (long or short) right here! He’d hear things like your nuts, your missing it, you gotta be out of your mind to not jump in etc.
Folks? (And this is the important part) It was ALWAYS AFTER the market had already moved. I bring this up because just before we started to move higher and at the point things were looking really ugly (In the face of fear!) we got a few of those emails telling us how nuts we were for not shorting the market.
The last 7 days we rest our case, those who were not in control of they’re emotions and shorted the heck out of things have gotten it handed to them. Know why? They chased a bus AFTER the fact and were late to the party to begin with. You see I also bring this up as today we had a few of those type of emails telling us we were nuts for not jumping in right here.
Just saying.
Below are your out of control index charts.
Right now? If you are long then enjoy it. For us? We want to see what really happens next week. That will be telling. We will be talkiing in great detail next week about the current state of the market and where to potentially from here.
Enjoy the weekend and again MANY MANY MANY THANKS TO ALL WHO HAVE EMAILED US THE LAST FEW DAYS, we are still trying to get caught up on all those emails so bear with us till we get to you personally.
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Short Side Coming Attractions
In the short term: With each of them it’s all about a downside break of the pink line for those who feel the need to trade on the short side.
Most likely we wont see that till AFTER the Holiday
But for now it’s all about a break to the downside in the pink lines shown below in the charts
Unless you like shorting in the face of emotional fear and lets face it, on the short side it is in the face of fear these past few days. which is exactly what one should be considering.
BIDU
ALTR
TZOO
6-28 See that break of the pink line to the downside?Neither do I , hence nothing to talk about.
6-27 With all of the above its all about a downside break of the Pink Lines or a sell short in the face of fear while the market is bouncing (friday perhaps? into the holiday on a pop at the open? if we get one that is, just a thought). Make sense?
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
Remember the name of the game is Pullback Off Highs (POH) as it’s the only pattern you’ll ever need.
PRGO
6-30 Hmmm mini double top brewing with today’s highs?
6-29 there you have it, a follow thru today but we are approaching the end of the into quarter end into a holiday window we’ve been talking about.
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
LONG SIDE
SODA
7-1 OOC As in OUT OF CONTROL
IPGP
APKT
6-29 Can you say at or near a resistance zone?
NFLX
ARW
6-30 WOW WOW WOW , the 200 day strikes again
GLD
6-24 See the mini double top around 152ish? This issue goes from not exactly healthy to outright sick.
6-23 Isn’t exactly looking healthy here now is it.
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
Over the weekend we posted an article in this space entitled:
OPTIONS- Your best friend and worst enemy
That article is at the bottom of this newsletter for reference anytime you need it.
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Options Watch List – All AUGUST call options
NONE Currently but this can change real fast and will change real fast over the next few days.
Current Holdings
DECK August 95 puts to open (We are now LONG 1 Contract at 9.80 as of 6-30-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 8.40
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Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
None
SHORT SIDE POSITIONS
CAT (We are now SHORT 150 shares at 104.25 as of 6-29-11)
DECK (We are now SHORT 175 shares at 87.88 as of 6-30-11)
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
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OPTIONS- Your best friend and worst enemy
Let’s talk about options for a moment. First off this is a big universe with a lot of advanced strategies and terms like theta, delta , straddles, butterflies and the whole gambit. For the purposes of this conversation we’ll keep it real simple and not try to get to deep.
We’ll approach it from simple buy puts (short side) buy calls (long side). The first thing I want to mention is that options attract the fast money crowd in hopes of turning 500 into 10,000 overnight. This is also the get rich quick crowd. And more often than not these type of people get broke faster than they get rich. Please don’t be one of them as greed kills.
Time and time again we hear from people who like to trade options, and time and time again we hear the horror stories too. When we hear the horror stories nine times out of ten we can guess as to why their option went to zero. Nine times out of ten it was because they bought out of the money options or at the money options. This is the reason why 80% of those who do options lose money by the way.
Sure there are folks who use out of the monies and at the monies but those are experienced traders that know the ins outs ups and downs.
You see the trick is to NOT pay for time. You want as close to a point for point move as possible with the stock because there is nothing worse than seeing your stock move yet your option does nothing or very little, know the feeling?
So for All About Trends we only want to look at IN THE MONEY CALLS OR PUTS and we DO NOT WANT TO PAY FOR TIME, sure they cost more BUT we want to be as close as possible to being able to see a point for point move with the stock.
We hate paying for time. We want true value without the time. We’re not saying our way is any better than others, we’re just saying it’s what works for us.
Now let’s touch upon how we would build a virtual portfolio dedicated to options and how to make it a piece of your overall virtual portfolio via allocation. Keep in mind this is more geared towards beginners so you advanced people might be bored with it but then again it never hurts to revisit the basics every now and then.
At All About Trends Trends we talk a lot about never biting off more than you can chew and trade size position management. We do that for a reason, we do it so as to when Murphy’s law shows up it never devastates us or blows us up. Typically we try to stay within a 5-7% position size when we do a trade. The same thing goes for options. If we were to start a virtual portfolio of options or shall we say allocate a portion of our overall virtual portfolio to options the way we would look at it is the following:
For example, let’s say the total value of your virtual portfolio is $100,000. The most we’d consider allocating towards an options strategy is 10% of the whole virtual portfolio. In this case $10,000. So now you’d have a $10,000 option virtual portfolio to work with. Now let’s say that you are the worst trader on the planet (we doubt that!) and you lose the whole option virtual portfolio, what’s the risk to the total value of the overall virtual portfolio? 10% in which case you live to play another day. Now let’s touch upon that $10,000 you allocated toward options. Let’s reduce the risk even further (and we haven’t even talked about what stocks to trade yet). Let’s take that $10,000 and split it up into no more than 10% ($1,000) can be allocated to anyone position as a guide. (Sometimes 1000 can get you 3-4 contracts you know). Now let’s say that one of those positions goes bust (and they will! and sometimes more than one at the same time we assure you.) What is the total impact to the overall options virtual portfolio? 10% right?
Now let’s take that a step further. What’s the total impact to the overall investment virtual portfolio of 100,000? 1% – that’s right 1 measly percent. When it comes to options you need to employ some sort of virtual portfolio risk management structure parameters as this way you can get in trouble and you don’t lose sleep – you just have a bad day that’s all.
As for getting rich overnight? Forget about it. That’s just a marketing ploy. As for taking 50,000 and turning it into millions? Ain’t happening overnight but it sure sounds good doesn’t it? And that is why people bite on those marketing ploys.
As for time? We never go out months. As a swing trader we’re in positions for only a couple of weeks best case so why pay for the time to go out further in time when you don’t have to. When the stock moves whether it’s right away or not they sure seem to suck that time out of you just as fast anyway right?
Typically we’ll look at the front month (current month) or the next month but not months. When we say front month if options expiration is a week or sometimes even two weeks away we’ll look out to the next month and not the current. While time is our enemy in most cases, in this case it’s your friend. It’s just that you don’t want to pay for it
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SUBSCRIBER ONLY WEB SITE
Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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