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Today’s buzzwords are? Hurry Up And Wait"
We have a ton of good looking names but not one of them is going to be bought today. Its all a matter of the market wanting to play ball and right now the pitcher is on the the mound scratching his head as to when is he going to throw the pitch (Market Makes The Call right?). All the while the bulk of the names on our longside watch list are winding up for the pitch by building out "Bigger Is Better" POH’s to launch off of.
Yes, Im sure a lot of the last few weeks downside action is debt ceiling related and imminent default along with the PIIGS. BUT in the states our friend (not mine) Geithner has that ball and the only way we default is if he withholds. This months interest payments (think your tax dollars) are somewhere to the tune of 15-20 Billion from what I’ve heard. This months revenues are supposedly somewhere in the 170-200 billion range. So default is imminent right? Gimme a break, just pay the dam bill and be done with it.
Folks if anyone should be ticked off its US. All because they in Washington are playing games. And because of those games the market apparently is being held hostage because of this, or so it looks. So once this is all said and done and past tense? What do you all think is going to happen to the markets when the unknown becomes known huh? We’ve seen it all before right? Up 200 points and never looks back all i the form of a gap and go is what I’d be watching for on a resolution of those political games. We’ll see.
In the meantime here are the index charts for your visual enjoyment.
Over the weekend we said:
Next week earnings season gets into full swing. What we want to do is pick and choose and start to pick off some names on the long side. Some we’ll look at ahead of (those that have been POHing) earnings, others we’ll look at after earnings depending upon the reactions.
Next week let’s also not forget we have that "Better Than Expected" buzzword to be on the lookout for too.
This morning CHKP came out with all time record sales and better than expected numbers. Below is the daily chart showing the reaction to that.
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Short Side Coming Attractions
NONE
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
Remember the name of the game is Pullback Off Highs (POH) AND FIRST THRUST UPs as they are the only patterns you’ll ever need.
7-18 The name of the game with regards to our longside watch list today is "Hurry Up And Wait" today we will be doing nothing but watching hence WATCH LIST.
in keeping with a baseball theme? This is your batter’s up list. Swing batter swing and that is what we are waiting for- The batters to step up to the plate and take a swing. First someone has to pitch the ball though right?
TNAV
NEW NAME
PCLN
TSCO
NFLX
CRS
ARBA
7-17 High on the list for next week.
RVBD
RUE
7-17High on the list for next week
KSU
CVLT
PPO
7-17 High on the list for next week.
SODA
7-18 This name gets put on the back burner till we can see a decent POH develop, besides we have more than enough names here to keep us all busy and there is no way we can do them all anyway.
MAKO
7-15 Indecision here today.
AVGO
7-17 High on the list next week.
7-15 Look at the last 5 days. Don’t tell us the market is saying support.
7-10 35-36 range would be a nice level to consider going long.
RAX
7-17 High on the list next week.
7-13 Can be bought right here with any break of the 50 day (42.00) as a trailing stop or any break of the blue major support line.
IRBT
7-17 High on the list next week.
7-12 Heck the coming up the right side crossover level of 34/33 would get me interested on the long side with this on even potentually ahead of earnings.
Gosh, if it looks like a completed cup, acts like a completed cup odds favor its a completed cup.
IPGP
7-14 nothing to talk about here as of yet- still building
PLCM
7-17 Nice POH in this name forming here. We might consider taking a piece of this issue ahead of earnings or on a crossover of the pink line.
7-12 This name should be high on the list, however we are going into earnings on this name. I’d consider it ahead of earnings around the 29 zone as one could say its selling off into earnings. We’ll see.
FTNT
7-13 The sub 26 range looks to be about all she wrote to the downside for now. We like the company but earnings are around the corner and unless we can see more weakness into earnings we’ll have to just leave it alone in here, who knows maybe tomorrow is a digestion day in the market as in pullback day.
7-10 25-26 Range definitely gets us interested on the long side
ICLK
7-17 Well one could say you got your upside POH trigger on Friday. If this issue opens flat Monday, we’ll most likely grab some.
7-14 I sure like that 7.75 spike low.
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
LONG SIDE
GG
RGLD
7-17 Let’s step aside on the two gold stocks above as they need some chart time to get us to even consider buying them here as short term there is a lot of heat in them.
SLV
7-15 Digesting its recent pop.
GLD
7-14 Remember our conversation the other day about buying breakout of v shaped patterns? Same deal here if you are looking to add exposure- let it stage a POH first.
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
Over the weekend we posted an article in this space entitled:
OPTIONS- Your best friend and worst enemy
That article is at the bottom of this newsletter for reference anytime you need it.
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Options Watch List – All AUGUST call options
Current Holdings
NANO August 15 calls to open (We are now long 2 Aug. 15 calls at 4.10 as of 7-13-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 3.10
ENTG August 7.5 calls to open (We are now long 2 Aug. 7.5 calls at 1.50 as of 7-13-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 1.00
NXPI August 20 calls to open (We are now long 2 Aug. 20 calls at 3.70 as of 7-13-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 2.00
DECK August 95 puts to open (We are now LONG 1 Contract at 9.80 as of 6-30-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 6.00
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Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
NANO (We are now LONG 300 shares at 18.71 as of 7-13-11)
7-18 Right down to a prior support level and one could say right back to the top of the "Right Side Of Cup Crossover" level too.
NXPI (We are now LONG 300 shares at 22.96 as of 7-13-11)
7-18 Well folks here we are down a whopping 2 points, given how far the indexes have fallen the past couple of weeks? for us to close out the position right in here? Naaaa we’ll just sweat it out for the time being.
7-10 Keep an eye in this stock, these folks are leaders in NFC chips. These chips are what allow consumers to get information about a product by simply swiping their phone in front of a tag located by the product. Taking it a step further consumers are also now able to swipe their phone in front of a special terminal and the purchase is made. No more credit cards (like America really needs them right?). Mobile Commerce.
ENTG (We are now LONG 300 shares at 8.71 as of 7-13-11)
7-18 This is feeling some heat today. But for us? we are down a whopping 150.00 on the position. If that’s the heat we have to feel in here on a bad day in the market? We’re fine considering the alternative.
SHORT SIDE POSITIONS
DECK (We are now SHORT 175 shares at 87.88 as of 6-30-11)
7-18 So how come this issue isn’t down with the indexes today?
Honestly no clue, all i can say is that its a market of stocks and not a stock market as that is the only framework it falls into today.Still though we want out of this issue.
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
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OPTIONS- Your best friend and worst enemy
Let’s talk about options for a moment. First off this is a big universe with a lot of advanced strategies and terms like theta, delta , straddles, butterflies and the whole gambit. For the purposes of this conversation we’ll keep it real simple and not try to get to deep.
We’ll approach it from simple buy puts (short side) buy calls (long side). The first thing I want to mention is that options attract the fast money crowd in hopes of turning 500 into 10,000 overnight. This is also the get rich quick crowd. And more often than not these type of people get broke faster than they get rich. Please don’t be one of them as greed kills.
Time and time again we hear from people who like to trade options, and time and time again we hear the horror stories too. When we hear the horror stories nine times out of ten we can guess as to why their option went to zero. Nine times out of ten it was because they bought out of the money options or at the money options. This is the reason why 80% of those who do options lose money by the way.
Sure there are folks who use out of the monies and at the monies but those are experienced traders that know the ins outs ups and downs.
You see the trick is to NOT pay for time. You want as close to a point for point move as possible with the stock because there is nothing worse than seeing your stock move yet your option does nothing or very little, know the feeling?
So for All About Trends we only want to look at IN THE MONEY CALLS OR PUTS and we DO NOT WANT TO PAY FOR TIME, sure they cost more BUT we want to be as close as possible to being able to see a point for point move with the stock.
We hate paying for time. We want true value without the time. We’re not saying our way is any better than others, we’re just saying it’s what works for us.
Now let’s touch upon how we would build a virtual portfolio dedicated to options and how to make it a piece of your overall virtual portfolio via allocation. Keep in mind this is more geared towards beginners so you advanced people might be bored with it but then again it never hurts to revisit the basics every now and then.
At All About Trends Trends we talk a lot about never biting off more than you can chew and trade size position management. We do that for a reason, we do it so as to when Murphy’s law shows up it never devastates us or blows us up. Typically we try to stay within a 5-7% position size when we do a trade. The same thing goes for options. If we were to start a virtual portfolio of options or shall we say allocate a portion of our overall virtual portfolio to options the way we would look at it is the following:
For example, let’s say the total value of your virtual portfolio is $100,000. The most we’d consider allocating towards an options strategy is 10% of the whole virtual portfolio. In this case $10,000. So now you’d have a $10,000 option virtual portfolio to work with. Now let’s say that you are the worst trader on the planet (we doubt that!) and you lose the whole option virtual portfolio, what’s the risk to the total value of the overall virtual portfolio? 10% in which case you live to play another day. Now let’s touch upon that $10,000 you allocated toward options. Let’s reduce the risk even further (and we haven’t even talked about what stocks to trade yet). Let’s take that $10,000 and split it up into no more than 10% ($1,000) can be allocated to anyone position as a guide. (Sometimes 1000 can get you 3-4 contracts you know). Now let’s say that one of those positions goes bust (and they will! and sometimes more than one at the same time we assure you.) What is the total impact to the overall options virtual portfolio? 10% right?
Now let’s take that a step further. What’s the total impact to the overall investment virtual portfolio of 100,000? 1% – that’s right 1 measly percent. When it comes to options you need to employ some sort of virtual portfolio risk management structure parameters as this way you can get in trouble and you don’t lose sleep – you just have a bad day that’s all.
As for getting rich overnight? Forget about it. That’s just a marketing ploy. As for taking 50,000 and turning it into millions? Ain’t happening overnight but it sure sounds good doesn’t it? And that is why people bite on those marketing ploys.
As for time? We never go out months. As a swing trader we’re in positions for only a couple of weeks best case so why pay for the time to go out further in time when you don’t have to. When the stock moves whether it’s right away or not they sure seem to suck that time out of you just as fast anyway right?
Typically we’ll look at the front month (current month) or the next month but not months. When we say front month if options expiration is a week or sometimes even two weeks away we’ll look out to the next month and not the current. While time is our enemy in most cases, in this case it’s your friend. It’s just that you don’t want to pay for it
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Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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