Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Folks, we MAY have just dodged a bullet. Technically speaking, the S&P 500 in the face of being held hostage and a weak GDP number managed to tag the 200 day average and a major uptrend this morning and instantly bounced off of it. For now that says a lot.
What do we at All About Trends try to instill in you all? Don’t get emotional, trade size risk management, let the markets do the talking and above all DON’T REACT. Is it easy? Absolutely not, especially in such a media charged environment. It pretty much takes all the guts you’ve got to weather that environment. But ahhhh if you can get thru it? Well then you deserve to get paid. Its all about managing your emotions during sloppy highly charged times.
We are not out of the woods just yet but I’m encouraged by the action I’m seeing. The markets had every reason to implode today but they thus far havent. Lets get thru the close.
As for the Washington issue? Think it forward, its going to get done. Its also the weekend and it would sure not surprise me to see it happen before the weekend if not during the weekend. All I gotta say is for me? I sure would not want to be short over the weekend but thats me. I see too many good looking names that all they have done is pullback to support levels, three of which are our newest holdings (TSCO,NFLX,CRM) This weekend we’ll be adding a few more to our list. One new name on our list today is related to CRM and that is VMW.
See you this action packed media weekend.
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Short Side Coming Attractions
NONE
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
Remember the name of the game is Pullback Off Highs (POH) AND FIRST THRUST UPs as they are the only patterns you’ll ever need.
VMW
NEW NAME
JVA
TIBX
7-28 Overall the structure still looks pretty tight if you ask me.
7-26 For those who do not know what TIBX does? Below is for you.
TIBCO Software Inc. is a provider of infrastructure software for companies to use on-premise or as part of cloud computing environments. Whether it’s efficient claims or trade processing, cross-selling products based on real-time customer behavior, or averting a crisis before it happens, TIBCO provides companies the two-second advantage(TM) — the ability to capture the right information, at the right time and act on it preemptively for a competitive advantage. More than 4,000 customers worldwide rely on TIBCO to manage information, decisions, processes, and applications in real-time. TIBCO Spotfire(R) is the company’s in-memory analytics software for next generation business intelligence. By offering a visual, interactive experience
7-25 Not acting all that bad here, the more it tightens up under the pink line and above the blue all sets the stage for a slingshot upon a legitimate upside crossover.
TNAV
7-29 Gets deleted and we don’t have to tell you why.
7-28 Lets see what gives with earnings then we can decide whether we will own it or take it off the list.
7-25 Earnings are end of the week, if they slam it down to trend channel support/ 50 day average on that event? I know what we’ll be thinking about doing. think the TSCO trade recently.
7-24 Until this issue puts in a Pullback Off Highs (POH) pattern and moves closer to trend channel support there is nothing to talk about.
IPGP
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US
This is where names that we have on our watch list that have triggered but for whatever reason we did not take them (can’t do them all) in our trade trigger alerts. This section is because a lot of our subscribers opt to use our information as they see fit from a do-it-yourselfer standpoint.
LONG SIDE
ICLK
SLV
7-27 Now its you’re turn. "What Do You Need To See To Make You Take A LONGSIDE Trade " with this name and GLD below?
GLD
7-27 Extended. If you answered a POH to the question in the SLV notes then you are correct. Remember allow them to come to you just like TSCO,NFLX and SODA have just done for us.
7-25 Looks as though its starting to get that fear of a Goverment shut down trade going on as well as a fear of missing it after most have already missed it. Hmmm what happens to this issue along with the other metals stocks when the Washington issues are resolved ?
What if the goverment shuts down? Climax spike would be my guess, of course we all know the emotional money would jump in that day and buy greed from Wall St. right? Of course this assumes that were to occur mind you.
Long term investors who don’t care? A resolution in the Washington standoff corrects back some excess to perhaps the 50 day? No biggy for those folks. Traders that are buying it here? Lot of risk in my book.
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
Over the weekend we posted an article in this space entitled:
OPTIONS- Your best friend and worst enemy
That article is at the bottom of this newsletter for reference anytime you need it.
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Current Holdings
CRM August 135 Calls to open (We are now long 1 Aug. 135 call at 14.05 as of 7-28-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 12.10
NFLX August 235 calls to open (We are now long 1 Aug. 235 call at 25.75 as of 7-26-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 30.40
TSCO August 60 calls to open (We are now long 2 Aug. 60 calls at 7.50 as of 7-21-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 6.00
ARBA August 30 calls to open (We are now long 2 Aug. 30 calls at 5.20 as of 7-19-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 3.00
MAKO August 25 calls to open (We are now long 2 Aug. 25 calls at 6.70 as of 7-19-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 4.30
NANO August 15 calls to open (We are now long 2 Aug. 15 calls at 4.10 as of 7-13-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 2.20
ENTG August 7.5 calls to open (We are now long 2 Aug. 7.5 calls at 1.50 as of 7-13-11)
As we post they are currently trading at 1.25
NXPI August 20 calls to open (We are now long 2 Aug. 20 calls at 3.70 as of 7-13-11)
As we post they are currently trading at .50
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Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
CRM (We are now LONG 100 shares at 146.01 as of 7-28-11)
NFLX (We are now LONG 50 shares at 256.54 as of 7-26-11)
TSCO (We are now LONG 200 shares at 65.85 as of 7-21-11)
7-26 Looking good and no news driven earnings event risk to deal with either.
RAX (We are now LONG 200 shares at 43.42 as of 7-19-11)
7-29 ABC pullback off highs?
RUE (We are now LONG 200 shares at 33.69 as of 7-19-11)
7-28 Here too, actually pretty tight and deeply oversold. Remember when the market goes its going to probably be a "When it rains it pours" moment.
ARBA (We are now LONG 200 shares at 34.56 as of 7-19-11)
7-27 We’ll gut it out right here. If it gets killed to the red line on earnings? Well its a support level so should we stop out if that occurs? I think not. Even it it does go there its a whopping 912.00 dollars that we are down at that point should it occur IF it occurs. Nobody said its going to occur, I just point out a what if scenario and the impact it could/would have. Percent wise it would be less than 1% impact to our overall virtual portfolio.
MAKO (We are now LONG 200 shares at 31.08 as of 7-19-11)
NANO (We are now LONG 300 shares at 18.71 as of 7-13-11)
NXPI (We are now LONG 300 shares at 22.96 as of 7-13-11)
7-29 Well folks we had three of our holding come out with earnings. Of the three, two of them weathered that storm just fine. Sure there were a few lightning bolts early on during this mornings thunderstorm but that is always the case during a thunderstorm. When all said, this one didn’t fair as well as the other two. So what are we going to do about it? Nothing, the earnings reaction damage is already done and after the fact, all that matters is where this issue goes from here. Off of this mornings lows its coming up nicely and that at this moment in time is a big positive. We’ll probably be letting this issue go in the next few weeks but not here and not in this type of climate.
ENTG (We are now LONG 300 shares at 8.71 as of 7-13-11)
7-28 A little sloppy as of late , however its hanging tough for the time being and we are fine with that.
In Summary:
7-29 Bigger picture with regards to all of our holdings? Considering the highly emotionally charged climate and the amount of gyrations going on? We can’t complain. We’re not pleased mind you as it can be better BUT the market is a three way street. Uptrends, downtrends, and no trends. Want to trade full time? Then get thru times like this as this is where you’ll learn the most, as in how to handle tough sledding. ALL great traders know this and go thru this. Learn it now or learn it later but to be a great trader you will have to learn how to handle times like this. Arent you glad you are getting it out of the way now?
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 virtual portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the virtual portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that virtual portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to virtual portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
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OPTIONS- Your best friend and worst enemy
Let’s talk about options for a moment. First off this is a big universe with a lot of advanced strategies and terms like theta, delta , straddles, butterflies and the whole gambit. For the purposes of this conversation we’ll keep it real simple and not try to get to deep.
We’ll approach it from simple buy puts (short side) buy calls (long side). The first thing I want to mention is that options attract the fast money crowd in hopes of turning 500 into 10,000 overnight. This is also the get rich quick crowd. And more often than not these type of people get broke faster than they get rich. Please don’t be one of them as greed kills.
Time and time again we hear from people who like to trade options, and time and time again we hear the horror stories too. When we hear the horror stories nine times out of ten we can guess as to why their option went to zero. Nine times out of ten it was because they bought out of the money options or at the money options. This is the reason why 80% of those who do options lose money by the way.
Sure there are folks who use out of the monies and at the monies but those are experienced traders that know the ins outs ups and downs.
You see the trick is to NOT pay for time. You want as close to a point for point move as possible with the stock because there is nothing worse than seeing your stock move yet your option does nothing or very little, know the feeling?
So for All About Trends we only want to look at IN THE MONEY CALLS OR PUTS and we DO NOT WANT TO PAY FOR TIME, sure they cost more BUT we want to be as close as possible to being able to see a point for point move with the stock.
We hate paying for time. We want true value without the time. We’re not saying our way is any better than others, we’re just saying it’s what works for us.
Now let’s touch upon how we would build a virtual portfolio dedicated to options and how to make it a piece of your overall virtual portfolio via allocation. Keep in mind this is more geared towards beginners so you advanced people might be bored with it but then again it never hurts to revisit the basics every now and then.
At All About Trends Trends we talk a lot about never biting off more than you can chew and trade size position management. We do that for a reason, we do it so as to when Murphy’s law shows up it never devastates us or blows us up. Typically we try to stay within a 5-7% position size when we do a trade. The same thing goes for options. If we were to start a virtual portfolio of options or shall we say allocate a portion of our overall virtual portfolio to options the way we would look at it is the following:
For example, let’s say the total value of your virtual portfolio is $100,000. The most we’d consider allocating towards an options strategy is 10% of the whole virtual portfolio. In this case $10,000. So now you’d have a $10,000 option virtual portfolio to work with. Now let’s say that you are the worst trader on the planet (we doubt that!) and you lose the whole option virtual portfolio, what’s the risk to the total value of the overall virtual portfolio? 10% in which case you live to play another day. Now let’s touch upon that $10,000 you allocated toward options. Let’s reduce the risk even further (and we haven’t even talked about what stocks to trade yet). Let’s take that $10,000 and split it up into no more than 10% ($1,000) can be allocated to anyone position as a guide. (Sometimes 1000 can get you 3-4 contracts you know). Now let’s say that one of those positions goes bust (and they will! and sometimes more than one at the same time we assure you.) What is the total impact to the overall options virtual portfolio? 10% right?
Now let’s take that a step further. What’s the total impact to the overall investment virtual portfolio of 100,000? 1% – that’s right 1 measly percent. When it comes to options you need to employ some sort of virtual portfolio risk management structure parameters as this way you can get in trouble and you don’t lose sleep – you just have a bad day that’s all.
As for getting rich overnight? Forget about it. That’s just a marketing ploy. As for taking 50,000 and turning it into millions? Ain’t happening overnight but it sure sounds good doesn’t it? And that is why people bite on those marketing ploys.
As for time? We never go out months. As a swing trader we’re in positions for only a couple of weeks best case so why pay for the time to go out further in time when you don’t have to. When the stock moves whether it’s right away or not they sure seem to suck that time out of you just as fast anyway right?
Typically we’ll look at the front month (current month) or the next month but not months. When we say front month if options expiration is a week or sometimes even two weeks away we’ll look out to the next month and not the current. While time is our enemy in most cases, in this case it’s your friend. It’s just that you don’t want to pay for it
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