HOUSEKEEPING:
Friday’s mid day update will be the weekend newsletter. There will be no weekend newsletter as there really isn’t going to be much we see changing from the time the mid day comes out Friday till the close on Friday.
Well here we are again with the buzzword from this past weekend and that is:
"Better Than Expected" We saw that over the weekend with the hurricane, bad but better than expected and we saw the same thing this morning. The estimate was in the 48’s for the ISM but they came in just above 50 hence better than expected. But behind that was that it was the worst showing since 2009! Hows that for good news. Up is down and down is up. Par for the course in pre holiday trade.
With regards to the neckline of the monster head and shoulders top? The only question on my mind is whether we hit it or not. I’ve got mixed views on it. On one hand I’d sure like to see it drop off from here but the market is the boss not me. On the other hand I’d like to see it hit so we get it out of the way. Should that be the case? Well then the chart below tells the story.
9-1 So far we’ve been going sideways the last two days here. That is either holiday trade , consolidating at the highs (which is a digestion of gains) or for every seller there is a buyer to pick up the selling supply which is what Wall St likes to do AFTER we just made a run (think sell greed right). Think the opposite of sucking up supply from nervous Nellie at market lows.
Hmmm maybe we need to think up a name for the the greedy guy. Something that rhymes with Nellie- Anyone got any ideas?
Now given all that it would not surprise me to see sometime in the next few days a gap up to that level. Which would be fine by me for shorting purposes and fine by those who are still looking to reduce exposure on the longside too. What it would not do for me too though is allow me to freak out on my short sells. Why? because its MAJOR RESISTANCE.
Here are your daily charts
One could say yesterday we definitely got a reaction off of this level when you look at what the afternoon action was to numerous leaders. Keep in mind this index leads and that means both directions.
Should we tag those major resistance levels (SPX, NASDAQ Comp. already in the zone as shown above)?
I’ll be watching close for names like ATHN ,ALXN and CERN to trigger short sells. Those names have been moved to the short sell watch list effective today. The theme with them is nice uptrend, puts in a double top which is an early warning change in trend pattern by the way and then its just a matter of waiting for the break or a big gap up on an open for shorting on gap strength at major resistance IF IF IF we were to tag it.
Jobs report is in the A.M sooo it could be a catalyst. Up is down and down is up right? And of course the famous never mind things are not good because all that matters is "Better Than Expected"
Between now and the weekend (if at all) the only trades I see coming out of us are short sells. And if because of major resistance (How many times in the last two days have I been saying that word? Might want to take note of that folks) we are considering short sells does that mean we walk away from out short sells currently on the books? I’d think not.
Game Plan for the week of 8-29-11
8-31 Given how stretched the rubber band is all on low volume high volatility those of you who missed your opportunity to walk away at the beginning of August here may be your chance to lighten the load on long positions on strength. Consider yourself warned as we are in the zone.
Now given all of the above? We are going to keep our short sells here and sweat it out while in the zone.
Remember markets that go up on low or no volume have a good possibility of failing fast in this case that’s back to support. It’s all going to make for a doozy of a week. Friday we have the jobs report so that’s even more fuel for a thin, really thin volume week.
We’ll use any market weakness to lock gains on the short side as we could easily trade back and forth within this range for the whole week.
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Between Now And Year End Template
What happens after this 5th wave? Simple, if Elliott Wave theory is all about fives and threes then a three waves up counter-trend rally to the upside would be in order. Below is an example of a past market leader whose done just that, albeit the red 5-waves down sequence isn’t as extreme as the one we are experiencing currently but you get the point.
As you can see after 5-waves down we have a 3-waves up affair. Once that 3-waves up affair completes itself? Well you can see what typically takes place after the counter trend rally. It’s another sell off. You can also see this blue 123 waves up rally lasted a few months and that is common, it’s going to take that long to repair all the damage we’ve seen out there as it won’t be repaired overnight and just about the time it gets what ‘ll look as repaired? It’s time to roll ’em back over to the down side again.
As for 401k’s, mutual funds and long positions?.
(Note we are not talking long positions that have been held since eternity with a cost basis of nil or extremely low because to sell those the tax implications would be huge — we’re not talking about that type of money here)
It’s in that 3 waves up of 2 that when all said and done should look like a 123ABC up pattern. At the end of it, THAT is when you want to raise some cash in your 401k plan by moving out of equities and into the safest vehicle they offer.
For those who have a matching contribution where your employer matches you up to a certain percent? You are already doubling your money with the match what the heck do you need to have that money in the market for? So traditional Wall St. can keep getting their management fees while you get squat like you really have over the last 10+ years?
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Follow The Leaders
In the weekend report we’ll bring them all back front and center so as you all have something to study over the weekend.
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SHORT SIDE WATCH LIST
ALXN
ATHN
CERN
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
Refer to the Follow The Leaders email from the weekend and above. BUT with us pushing a resistance level in the indexes in a low volume week? We’ll opt to take it easy here.
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US LIST
NOTE: All of the names on this long side watch list are INVERSE INDEX ETFs. This means that if you go long any of them you are essentially going short the indexes. Keep in mind all of the below are LEVERAGED that means 2-3 times market risk. It works for you and against you.
TZA
SDS
QID
For those of you who own QID which is based upon the NDX 100 take a look at the NDX 100 chart below. Would you say its more of a buy right here? or a sell and at resistance?
SLV
GLD
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All About Options In The World According To All About Trends
Over the weekend we posted an article in this space entitled:
OPTIONS — Your best friend and worst enemy
That article is at the bottom of this newsletter for reference anytime you need it.
NOTE: The exchanges recently started WEEKLY EXPIRATIONS of options. Going forward, make sure that you check to see which ones you are buying. Let’s stay with traditional options expirations which are the ones that expire the 3rd Saturday of every month.
Current Holdings
GMCR We are now long 1 September 105 put option to open at 12.95
As we post they are currently trading at 5.20 bid
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Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
Short Side Positions
GMCR (We are now SHORT 100 shares at 94.90 as of 8-25-11)
Check out the action on the short term chart. Really is struggling here, sure is acting as a resistance level as shown by the dark going nowhere today.
SRCL (We are now SHORT 150 shares at 80.69 as of 8-17-11)
8-30 We talked about walking away on weakness and at this point that 84 level which is a short term support MAY be the ticket, but not here in a pre holiday no volume week where things are amplified and that included less centered emotional types I might add.
HUM (We are now SHORT 175 shares at 74.22 as of 8-17-11)
CXO (We are now SHORT 150 shares at 85.19 as of 8-1711)
TZA (We are now LONG 125 shares at 46.13 as of 8-16-11)
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To our NEW SUBSCRIBERS
What we’ve tried to do is break our watch list down into chart pattern recognition structure from a visual standpoint. Learn the patterns and the components of patterns and you’ll blow those Wall Street MBAs away. You don’t need a $3,000 software program either. All you need is a BURNING DESIRE to be the best that you can be and we’re here to help.
We have a lot of new folks here and we thank you! We want you to take it easy, get to know how the routine works around here for awhile and to feel comfortable.
We hope you all aren’t here because you are chasing performance. For us it’s more about educating and making you the best you that you can be first (that’s what we focus upon!). Like many of our long time subscribers they have all found out that they have no use for traditional Wall Street (and we don’t blame them) and it’s our hope that over time you’ll have acquired enough knowledge from us to say the same with conviction.
One of the most important things we want to stress is that of RISK MANAGEMENT via POSITION SIZING. You don’t need to stack your account with just a few big positions as we’ve seen it time and time again that those who get into trouble are the ones who take large positions and do not employ any risk management system IE shoot for the fences. Those are the people who live on the fringes of extremes and yes ultimately get burned.
As a guideline a good initial system is that of the following example.
Let’s say you have a $100,000 portfolio and let’s say that as a guide you never place more than 10% ($10,000) into any one position. Now let’s say that one day a news driven event hits (over which you have no control over anyway) and one of the positions tanks 20%. On its own that position is sporting a $2,000 loss, while that may seem devastating on its own its really no big deal overall.
Why? Simple its all about risk management being properly employed. What is the impact of a $2,000 loss to the TOTAL VALUE of the portfolio in this example.
Answer: A whopping 2% LOSS. Now you know why we say no big deal.
We can also tell you new people here that you will get stopped out of names and you will take hits. There is nobody on the planet living that has ever hit 18 holes in one and there never will be. We’d rather get you grounded in reality right away vs talking about pie in the sky all the time like a lot of other sites. In so doing your head is screwed on straight from the start and when those days happen (and they will) mentally it won’t mean a thing to you. To us that’s what’s most important is YOUR state of mind as it’s your most important asset. We hope you appreciate our honesty.
We have a very good retention rate here at All About Trends and a lot of great outstanding people here. We like to think that a part of that is being upfront about what can happen (in both directions). Verses those up 500%, I turned $50,000 into $3 million or some other absurd number to get you to bite. That’s not who we are.
WELCOME ABOARD!
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Lastly with regards to taking any trade:
Remember the moment you take a trade you are at the mercy of the market and have no control except when to sell. If you are not willing to take the risk and are not willing to pay that price do not take the trade. We are willing to take that risk knowing full well the end result could be a loss. That said make sure that portfolio management trade size is used accordingly. With any position you may take make sure that should something go awry the amount of total impact to your account does not devastate your acct. Try to stick to a 5% position That’s the key to portfolio management, not biting off more than you can chew.
Remember the mechanics of reality with regards to the stock market states a stock can only do one of three things: Up, Down, Nowhere. The moment you hit the enter button you are at the mercy of the market therefore the only control you have is when to sell/cover. You can’t manage your gains as you have none to manage initially. Knowing this in advance it allows you to stay in outcome, that being you will either:
1. Make a gain
2. Wash
3. Get stopped out at a loss
Remember the market IS the boss. IT is going to do what IT wants to do.
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OPTIONS- Your best friend and worst enemy
Let’s talk about options for a moment. First off this is a big universe with a lot of advanced strategies and terms like theta, delta , straddles, butterflies and the whole gambit. For the purposes of this conversation we’ll keep it real simple and not try to get to deep.
We’ll approach it from simple buy puts (short side) buy calls (long side). The first thing I want to mention is that options attract the fast money crowd in hopes of turning 500 into 10,000 overnight. This is also the get rich quick crowd. And more often than not these type of people get broke faster than they get rich. Please don’t be one of them as greed kills.
Time and time again we hear from people who like to trade options, and time and time again we hear the horror stories too. When we hear the horror stories nine times out of ten we can guess as to why their option went to zero. Nine times out of ten it was because they bought out of the money options or at the money options. This is the reason why 80% of those who do options lose money by the way.
Sure there are folks who use out of the monies and at the monies but those are experienced traders that know the ins outs ups and downs.
You see the trick is to NOT pay for time. You want as close to a point for point move as possible with the stock because there is nothing worse than seeing your stock move yet your option does nothing or very little, know the feeling?
So for All About Trends we only want to look at IN THE MONEY CALLS OR PUTS and we DO NOT WANT TO PAY FOR TIME, sure they cost more BUT we want to be as close as possible to being able to see a point for point move with the stock.
We hate paying for time. We want true value without the time. We’re not saying our way is any better than others, we’re just saying it’s what works for us.
Now let’s touch upon how we would build a portfolio dedicated to options and how to make it a piece of your overall portfolio via allocation. Keep in mind this is more geared towards beginners so you advanced people might be bored with it but then again it never hurts to revisit the basics every now and then.
At All About Trends Trends we talk a lot about never biting off more than you can chew and trade size position management. We do that for a reason, we do it so as to when Murphy’s law shows up it never devastates us or blows us up. Typically we try to stay within a 5-7% position size when we do a trade. The same thing goes for options. If we were to start a portfolio of options or shall we say allocate a portion of our overall portfolio to options the way we would look at it is the following:
For example, let’s say the total value of your portfolio is $100,000. The most we’d consider allocating towards an options strategy is 10% of the whole portfolio. In this case $10,000. So now you’d have a $10,000 option portfolio to work with. Now let’s say that you are the worst trader on the planet (we doubt that!) and you lose the whole option portfolio, what’s the risk to the total value of the overall portfolio? 10% in which case you live to play another day. Now let’s touch upon that $10,000 you allocated toward options. Let’s reduce the risk even further (and we haven’t even talked about what stocks to trade yet). Let’s take that $10,000 and split it up into no more than 10% ($1,000) can be allocated to anyone position as a guide. (Sometimes 1000 can get you 3-4 contracts you know). Now let’s say that one of those positions goes bust (and they will! and sometimes more than one at the same time we assure you.) What is the total impact to the overall options portfolio? 10% right?
Now let’s take that a step further. What’s the total impact to the overall investment portfolio of 100,000? 1% – that’s right 1 measly percent. When it comes to options you need to employ some sort of portfolio risk management structure parameters as this way you can get in trouble and you don’t lose sleep – you just have a bad day that’s all.
As for getting rich overnight? Forget about it. That’s just a marketing ploy. As for taking 50,000 and turning it into millions? Ain’t happening overnight but it sure sounds good doesn’t it? And that is why people bite on those marketing ploys.
As for time? We never go out months. As a swing trader we’re in positions for only a couple of weeks best case so why pay for the time to go out further in time when you don’t have to. When the stock moves whether it’s right away or not they sure seem to suck that time out of you just as fast anyway right?
Typically we’ll look at the front month (current month) or the next month but not months. When we say front month if options expiration is a week or sometimes even two weeks away we’ll look out to the next month and not the current. While time is our enemy in most cases, in this case it’s your friend. It’s just that you don’t want to pay for it
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Don’t forget you can view updates in the middle and the end of each trading day complete with current charts, along with our current performance at our subscriber only web site.
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