Here We Are

In "Lumbering Lower," I suggested that one widely followed economic indicator, the National Association of Purchasing Management Index, was heading into contraction territory. In fact, PMI readings for the eurozone, China, and Japan, as well as the U.S., have been trending lower for months, and all are now below where they were when the 2007 recession began.

Global double-dip, here we come are?

The bulls will tell you that the statistics paint a picture of an economy that is in recovery. However, when you sift through the data and factor in well-known realities, such as the fact that consumer prices are rising and our population is expanding, as The Atlantic notes in "Chart of the Day: Americans’ Stagnant (and Falling) Disposable Incomes," things begin look much less encouraging.

Over the past five years Americans, on average, have seen no disposable income growth if you adjust for population and inflation. This also explains why they’re spending like it’s 2006 — because they don’t have more money to spend. No wonder the recovery continues to feel like a recession: that’s an awfully long time to go without a raise.