Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Courtesy of David of All About Trends
It’s an 80’s Heavy Metal sort of day here in the markets and we’re not talking about gold. We’re talking about you’re mental health as in "Bang Your Head". Which is easy to do with all the gyrations intraday.
But its sure not stopping our " It’s A Market Of Stocks" theme of issues trading to the beat of their own drum. Just look at FIO here.
And then right behind it is VHC that as of this moment in time (subject to the next moment in time) looks to be also waking up
Moving on to the 60 minute time frequency charts
We still have that pennant building itself out that we talked about over the weekend and it can still go either way , if down then the 50 day averages aren’t far away and we’ll turn on the fasten seat belt sign for some in flight turbulence but that would be about it for us. If to the upside we are there and ought to participate to the upside due to having long exposure.
Game Plan for 11-15-11
And here we are in the indexes-Pulling back and backing and filling. So what are we going to do about it? Nothing, watch stock specific names and pick em off here and there.
Current Game Plan
So here is the bottom line through year end. We buy weakness and we’ll use the multiple supports to define our risk once in a position.
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SHORT SIDE WATCH LIST
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LONG SIDE WATCH LIST
"Only The Best And Forget The Rest "
"We Trade What We SEE, NOT What We Think, Hear Or Fear "
JOYG
NEW NAME
TIF
11-15 Looks pretty sloppy in here. Non committal. We will probably take this off the watch list after today. If it tightens up and we get some better structure we’ll consider bringing it back on the list. Remember we only want the best patterns and forget the rest.
FOSL
Back On the List
11-15 One look at the one minute chart shows this issue tightening up for the last 5 days by going sideways.
11-13 At this point in time it’s all about an upside crossover of the pink line POH trend channel and the 50 day average. Keep in mind over the last year there have been numerous times when we’ve seen a lot of name come from the depths of dispair only to ultimately come back and retest their highs. Just look at a chart of CXO
NUAN
BJRI
11-14 Same old same old, just building out the pattern
RP
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FEATURED BUT NOT TRADE TRIGGERED BY US LIST
ALXN
11-14 Well there you have it. If one were looking to buy it? Well then you had to buy it BEFORE it took off and sweated it out while you waited. that was the optimum entry by the way. That is also the reason why we sometimes just buy em in the dip and are willing to sweat it out with them.
Now? I would need to see some sort of backtest of today’s action to get me to jump into the fray. If you are there? Nice job!
This is also another example of the 50 day average not being the end all be all when an issue goes below it like we pointed out to you on the 9th of November notes below.
11-9 Still has nice structure, down to the big picture green trend channel support and check out the full stoh’s below the chart. Just because it broke the 50 day means nothing as a lot of stocks will flirt with that "zone". We’ve seen it tons of times where a stock breaks the 50 day, people freak out and then it turns tail without them right back up. Not saying its going to happen but just pointing out a "It Comes From Experience" situation.
BIIB
11-11 Sure enough right down to the 20 day and into the gap. A key point we want to make is that a lot of times money waits for issues to fill the gap. We have to tell you more times than not over time we’ve seen issues come into the gap but not fill it then they reverse right back to the upside. We’ll see if that ends up being the case and this one is on its way.
CELG
GLD
11-9 Gosh before you know it this issue will be testing its highs, which is resistance by the way.
OIH
11-3 This index actually came down and tagged the 50 day average.
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CURRENT POSITIONS
"Let Your Stocks Tell You What To Do By The Action They Exhibit"
NOT YOUR EMOTIONS!
LONG SIDE POSITIONS
RAX (We are long 250 shares of this at 42.54 as of 11-15-11)
11-15 Notice where we took this trade? Right on the upside crossover of the Pink POH line. This is why we use short term time frequency charts- They allow us to zoom in on where exactly is that crossover line. A new key phrase you may want to get acquainted with is:
Multi Dimensional Time Frequency Trading
BIDU (We are long 100 shares of this at 136.25 as of 11-11-11)
VHC (We are long 300 shares of this at 21.64 as of 11-11-11)
11-15 looking good so far.
FIO (We are long 250 shares of this at 33.55 as of 11-11-11)
11-15 Gosh, another day like today and we’ll have to lock our gains.
WFM (We are long 150 shares of this at 66.48 as of 11-10-11)
BWLD (We are long 125 shares of this at 64.13 as of 11-4-11)
(We are long 75 shares of this at 62.33 as of 11-10-11)
11-11 Yesterday’s action and today’s follow thru was exactly what one wants to see. Tagged the 50 day on weakness and POW lift off. Has a definite completed cup look to it. What happens If it follows thru and all the novice IBDers jump all over it on a break into a new high? Simple, we’ll be up 10% already vs them just getting in. Alternative entries folks alternative entries.
Like we’ve said, buy the dips and let them come to you.
11-10 On 11-6 we said:
If this issue were to also get slammed to the 50 day or just general market weakness we’d consider adding to our position as well.
And that is exactly what we did today. From here? Its all about sweating it out while waiting for a rip. Same goes for all our other names.
AAPL (We are long 25 shares of this at 398.56 as of 11-1-11)
(We are long 25 shares of this at 391.78 as of 11-10-11)
11-13 Recently we saw a few blurbs about how this issue is totally damaged because its below the 50 day. We get that on the surface HOWEVER look at the overall trend of this stock. It doesn’t trade off the 50 day, it trades off of a big green trend channel.
11-10 So lets play "What If" . What if this issue goes to the green trendline? Well first off its a support level. So would we want to stop out there? Knowing its a support level? And if it were to blow thru there and head to the 200 day average at 262 would we want to stop out there? Knowing its even more major support?
What impact would that have to the total value of our portfolio IF (not saying its going to not saying its not as I don’t know neither does anyone else) it went to the 200 day?. Let’s see we own 50 shares at 395.17 and this issue makes up 11% of our total portfolio. So IF it were to go to 362.00? we’d be down on the position 8.3% on its own. But what about the total impact to our overall portfolio? 9/10ths of one stinking percent!
On top of that? IF we would go there and stop out (which we wouldn’t do because its only a moment in time subject to the next moment in time) it would be a 1658.00 dollar loss. know what? We are up 3300.00+ for the month. So now how much damage would that be to us.
By using trade size risk management it really allows us to never really get flustered or in trouble. This allows us to always stay centered and objective because it really doesn’t mess with our most important asset which is our state of mind. Folks use this conversation as an example for yourself to think things forward and thru. It really helps calm the mind.
MAKO (We are long 100 shares of this at 37.37 as of 11-1-11)
11-14 And here it is following thru higher. Sure beats getting emotional when it was at the 31 level and we were down about 20% on the position on its own but down less than a 1/3 of one percent overall impact to the portfolio.
SHORT SIDE
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