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Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Sovereign Debt Yields and Spreads Soar Everywhere: Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Ireland; Major Problem List is Every Country but Germany; Belgium Spread Inverts Significantly

Courtesy of Mish 

The ECB, IMF, EMU, and EU are on the verge of multiple emergency meeting, if indeed meetings are not already underway. A quick check of the following bond spread tables and today’s yield action will explain. 

Across the board, yields and spreads widened significantly today. Note in particular the jump in the 2-year bond yield of Belgium.Also note the inverted spread situation for Belgium.

The spread to German 2-year bonds is 3.49 while the spread to 10-year bonds is 3.13. 

Sovereign Debt Table 10-Year Bonds

Country Change Yield Spread
Germany +.00 1.78 0.00
France +.26 3.68 1.90
Spain +.23 6.34 4.56
Italy +.37 7.07 5.29
Portugal -.16 11.29 9.51
Belgium +.32 4.91 3.13
Ireland +.47 8.21 6.43

Sovereign Debt Table 2-Year Bonds

Country Change Yield Spread
Germany +.00 0.31 0.00
France +.28 1.82 1.51
Spain +.31 5.31 5.00
Italy +.49 6.48 6.17
Portugal +.27 17.40 17.09
Belgium +.53 3.80 3.49
Ireland +.19 8.34 8.03

Belgium has been off nearly everyone’s radar, but not for long. The EFSF is underfunded for Spain and Portugal alone. It’s now time to add Belgium to the major problem list. 

On second thought, the major problem list now includes every country but Germany.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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